NBA basketball in 2022 is centered around the ability to create
advantages on offense and minimize advantages on defense. Players
and teams can space the floor, collapse it and warp it at myriad
levels with the freedom to drive — and dish and shake and cut — all
over the place. It's part of the reason guys like Giannis Antetokounmpo and Nikola
Jokic think EuroBasket is a harder environment.
The modern game all but requires NBA offenses to have at least
one (and probably more than one) player on the court who can
collapse an opposing defense with a 1-on-1 drive. Defenders who can
snuff out those advantages, meanwhile, earn high esteem; just look
at how players like Andrew Wiggins, Draymond Green, Marcus Smart
and Derrick White helped get their teams to the NBA
Finals.
Guys rarely excel in both dimensions of the fire-and-ice
combination, spark offense and freezing foes on defense. Sacramento
Kings point guard Davion Mitchell was one of those rarities as a
rookie:
Mitchell didn't make an All-Rookie team last season and feels
somewhat lost in the crowd of an exciting 2021 draft class. But the
former No. 9 overall pick, even at 24 years old, should be
considered just as poised for a second-year surge as any of his
competitors. He's smack-dab in the middle of the above graphic from
SIS Hoops, sitting near dynamic two-way catalysts like Smart,
White, Justin Holiday and Fred VanVleet.
Mitchell has earned the "Off Night" moniker for his hounding
individual defense, and new Kings coach Mike Brown is already a
witness.
"I can honestly say at this point in his career he is one of the
best on-ball defenders I’ve been around," Brown told Anthony Slater of The Athletic.
"Some of the things I’ve seen in the summertime remind me of a Gary
Payton II type of on-ball defender.”
The offensive end took a bit more time to flash. Mitchell
averaged 11.5 points and 4.2 assists per game with a lackluster
48.9% True Shooting percentage in 2021-22, but those cumulative
numbers don't tell the whole story.
After the All-Star break, the rookie put up 14.1 points and 5.9
assists per game across 19 contests. Eleven were starts, in which
he averaged 18.8 points and 9.3 assists per game. De'Aaron Fox and
Domantas Sabonis dropped out of the season due to injuries after
March 20, leaving Mitchell to run the show as the Kings trudged
along, out of the playoff picture.
Those who stuck it out with Sacramento saw Mitchell settle in as
an advantage-finder on the ball. Check out how his aggression
increased post-All-Star, after the Kings traded Tyrese Haliburton
and amidst injury struggles amongst their stars.
Category |
Pre-All-Star |
Post-All-Star |
Post-ASB NBA Rank |
Post-ASB Rookie Rank |
Drives/Game |
8.7 |
12.1 |
17th |
2nd |
FG% on Drives |
49.2% |
52.0% |
35th |
4th |
AST% on Drives |
14.2% |
16.1% |
5th |
1st |
TOV% on Drives |
6.0% |
5.2% |
t-26th |
4th |
(Scroll right to view full table
on mobile. Stats courtesy of NBA Stats/Second Spectrum)
Mitchell already posted decent numbers as a driver early in the
season, but with more on his plate without Haliburton and an
intermittent Fox, he impressively boosted both his volume and
efficiency.
As a passer, Mitchell formed an interesting tandem with Damian
Jones... who is now a Laker. The two were the fourth-most frequent
assist combo on the Kings last season. By spring, Jones was
Mitchell's favorite target; he passed to the play-finishing center
seven times per game.
We see how Mitchell is growing past straight-line drives. He
dipped into his bag of herky-jerky crossovers and hesitation moves
a bit more, exploded off of those plays, and then, zipped passes
into Jones for finishes. The second clip against the Los Angeles
Clippers particularly impressed me. Mitchell probed and engaged
Ivica Zubac long enough to create a window for Jones, saw Reggie
Jackson was backing out of the paint to cover Trey Lyles, and then,
hit Jones for the easy dunk.
Of course, Mitchell won't be syncing up with the 7-footer next
season. He might have Neemias Queta as a big-bodied dunker, but
Davion will most likely be in tandem with either Sabonis or Richaun
Holmes at center. Mitchell still flashed potential for a promising
connection with those two based on his rookie work.
This trio of assists all came to Jones in the same April contest
against the Suns. Mitchell hit him on a beautiful high-low feed in
the first clip, and then broke two aggressive screen coverages
later on. This type of success is exciting if you imagine Sabonis
feasting as an interior hub, fed by Mitchell through aggressive
defenses — or Holmes sealing down low and getting rewarded with a
Davion dime.
On the flip side, these bigs could also keep defenses from
sending two at Mitchell — giving him more breathing room to create
advantages. His mix of burst and patience allows him to explore
more space, even in Steve Nash dribble-esque situations like
these:
Mitchell slinks around the baseline and hits Harrison Barnes
twice in this reel, once on a well-timed cut and another after
drawing in Barnes' defender from the corner. These are two more
examples of an NBA rookie maximizing his advantage and creating an
advantageous setup for his teammate.
To truly unlock all of the driving and passing lanes, Mitchell
needs to take a step forward as an efficient finisher and
scorer.
Mark Schindler checked in on Mitchell's scoring
progress for Basketball News last February, and I highly
recommend the read since many of his observations still apply and
are worth remembering as a starting point for this season. Since
the article, Mitchell stayed in the ballpark as an overall
shot-maker. He finished 60% of his shots at the rim on the season
(about league average), but concluded as a 30.8% shooter from deep
(not very good).
However, there's an intriguing silver lining in the weeds of his
shooting splits.
Mitchell made only 40.0% of his pull-up shots all season and
struggled mightily behind the arc (28.4%). But rookies typically
struggle as individual pull-up scorers. This rookie, however, found
a rhythm in the mid-range later on in the season.
According to Cleaning the Glass, a quarter of Mitchell's shots
after the All-Star break came in the "long mid-range" area between
14 feet from the basket and the three-point arc. That put him in
the 96th percentile for frequency at his position. Mitchell canned
an impressive 47% of those shots (86th percentile), which were
mostly pull-up attempts.
It's almost an old-school flashback to how teams used to
generate mid-range looks. Mitchell often took screens at the elbow
like these and, knowing the bigs would sag off because of his
reputation as a shooter, he could easily settle into a more
comfortable shot.
Mitchell also can stop on a dime like a madman. That already
helped him to change speed and direction when driving; it also
means he needs less time to jack up a rhythm mid-range
shot.
No, this is not the most desirable shot from a game-planning
perspective. But as dozens of players around the NBA can show,
having a rhythm mid-range look is valuable and threatening. It also
marks a starting point for long-range shooting potential, something
Mitchell will obviously look to improve.
The former Baylor guard has past indicators of plus-shooting
too. Mitchell built himself up to a 44.7% three-point clip in his
final year of college. Per InStat Scouting, that included shooting
38% on pull-ups and 46% in catch-and-shoot situations. Sure, that
was with a shorter arc, and Mitchell was probably due for some
regression anyway. But let's not toss that year away as an outlier
when he's still young and growing.
We don't know how the Kings' rotation will shake out under Brown
yet, but from reports I've read, it seems Mitchell will at least
begin the year as a third guard behind Fox and trade acquisition
Kevin Huerter. Kings assistant coach Doug Christie told Hunter
Patterson of The Athletic that his goal for Mitchell is to be Sixth
Man of the Year.
If Mitchell were to ride the bench all season, that award is
absolutely within reach. But I think the second-year guard could
certainly challenge for a starting spot. "Off Night" is too
valuable to what the Kings are trying to build on defense, and his
budding talent as a creator will only help Sacramento ignite its
offense.
Don't forget about Mitchell in the sea of 2022-23 breakout
candidates.
THE OUTLIERS (a.k.a. other random interesting numbers I
found in the void):
- Go look at this thread from Synergy's Todd Whitehead, who
continues to be a data visualization artist:
- Nekias Duncan is back with division previews! In his breakdown of the Atlantic, he
gave us a gem on Marcus Smart's ball-screen impact last season that
I will be using in a future article:
- Another neat set of visuals from Dom Samangy: