As humans, it’s in our nature to simplify topics to help enhance
our perceived understanding of them. Simply put, we like putting
things in boxes.
For Jayson Tatum, the box he’s long been secluded to is
"bucket-getter."
In some respects, this is a noble designation, considering the
essence of the sport is to, how you say, get buckets. However, the
taxonomy has a limiting quality that comes with it. You see, the
impact of players that fall under this archetype typically caps off
in the low-end All-Star territory — a far cry from Tatum’s megastar
ambitions.
So, to burst through this glass ceiling, Tatum has become
something else. He’s become someone else (The Green
Arrow?).
He’s transformed himself into a generous facilitator and a
stalwart defender, and that maturation was never more apparent than
in the role he played in the Celtics 4-0' conquest of the Brooklyn
Nets.
Playmaking
His passing development is best cataloged through the lens of
Ben Taylor’s Passer Rating (a 1-to-10 measure
of a players passing ability) and Box Creation (an estimate of open shots created for
teammates per 100 possessions) metrics.
Passing/Playmaking Stats By Year
Jayson Tatum |
'17-18
|
'18-19
|
'19-20
|
'20-21
|
'21-22
|
Passer Rating*
|
2.6
|
3.7
|
4.2
|
5.0
|
5.6
|
Box Creation*
|
2.3
|
3.1
|
5.9
|
8.2
|
9.1
|
(Mobile users scroll right to
view full table)
*Data Provided by Backpicks
As you can see, Tatum began his career as a horrid passer (for
reference: Moses Malone once penned a 2.6 Passer Rating). Nowadays,
his playmaking numbers are some of the best in the league, as he
finished the 2021-22 season ranking in the 90th percentile in Box
Creation.
We've seen a similar growth curve from other athletic forwards
who began their All-Star reigns as pure scorers, and then,
graduated into MVP candidates by improving their passing.
Kawhi Leonard had a Passer Rating of 2.9 during his rookie
season and went on to finish in the top-20 in the stat in 2019-20
(6.9), tying the Point God himself, Chris Paul.
Tatum’s Celtic progenitor, Paul Pierce, began his career with a
Box Creation output of 1.7, only to finish in the 92nd percentile
in creation in 2015-16 (once again tying Paul!).
(Keep in mind that Leonard and Pierce were both 28 when they
made their playmaking peaks; Tatum just turned 24.)
A huge part of Tatum’s synthesis as a passer and playmaker can
be credited to his strength. The Nets often tried to load up on
Tatum in a fashion similar to the way the Celtics did so with
Durant. And yet, unlike Durant — who was battered into a barrage of contested
jumpers — Tatum continuously found ways to knife his way into
the eye of the storm. During the series, Tatum took an average of
8.5 shots at the rim per game, while Durant managed a mere 1.7 (per
Dunks & Threes).
Tatum wasn’t converting on these looks at his usual rate, but
his ability to consistently get two feet into the defense's place
of worship forced the Nets to sink in on his drives, and that
shift empowered Tatum to spray passes out to his loosely guarded
contemporaries.
The immediacy with which he relieves himself from custody of the
rock is another key to his progress in the playmaking department.
Last season, when Boston played the Nets (albeit without Jaylen
Brown), Tatum was handling the ball for 4.48 seconds, and he took
3.40 dribbles during those
possessions. This time around, he only held the ball for 4.06 seconds and produced only
2.95 dribbles per
touch.
This change in time may not seem significant, but a half-second
here and half-dribble there can be the difference in a few inches
of airspace for his teammate. And like Tony D’Amato said in Any
Given Sunday, "Life’s a game of inches, g**damn it!"
Tatum is making decisions swifter and more precisely than ever
before, and it shows in his postseason Box Creation score of 12.6
(third among postseason participants).
Defense
Sticking with our previous comparisons, Pierce and Leonard both
authored two No. 1 ranked defenses with the franchises that drafted
them.
(Pierce did it behind the watchful eye of Kevin Garnett in
2007-08 and 2011-12, while Leonard was the keystone to an
impenetrable wall of defensive superiority from 2015-17.)
This iteration of the Celtics just completed this feat for the
second time since Tatum started tending to the TD Garden in
2017-18, and one could reasonably argue that he may have been the
third-best guardian on a unit with two potential All-NBA defenders.
Like Pierce and Leonard, Tatum relies on a tantalizing blend of
strength and length to bother players of all shapes and sizes.
Against the Nets, Tatum forced over 2 turnovers per 75
possessions (that includes steals, blocks and charges).
As for Durant, Tatum not only used his aforementioned strength
to bully his frailer adversary around on the perimeter, but he also
leveraged his length to meet KD’s shot at its zenith in a manner we
haven’t seen since Giannis Antetokoumpo.
And while slowing Durant has been a
team-wide endeavor (every player that played significant minutes
shadowed him at one point or another), Tatum’s individual work is
nothing to scoff at.
In over 30 minutes of guarding him, Tatum held Durant to 3 of 18
shooting in a performance that garnered comparison to the containment job Pierce
executed on LeBron James in 2008. For the record, Leonard also has
a superstar stymie on his resume — that being his famous walling
off of Giannis in 2019.
James, Antetokounmpo and Durant experienced significant
decreases in volume and efficiency when they went up against this
troika of star wings.
Superstar Shutdown Performances
Player Matchup
(Year)
|
TS%*
|
Dif. from Regular
Season*
|
PPG
|
Dif. from Regular
Season*
|
James
(2008)
|
48.0%
|
-8.8%
|
26.7
|
-3.3
|
Antetokounmpo
(2019)
|
51.8%
|
-12.6%
|
22.7
|
-5.0
|
Durant
(2022)
|
52.6%
|
-10.8%
|
26.3
|
-3.6
|
(Mobile users scroll right to
view full table)
*Data Provided by Basketball Reference
It’s also worth noting that Pierce and Leonard both captured NBA
titles during the postseasons they administered their signature
shutdown performances in.
Overall, Tatum’s recent stretch of play pushes him from
bucket-getting All-Star to a borderline top-10 player in the NBA.
And future improvements around the margins could lead to Tatum
ascending into the all-time pantheon of two-way forwards — right
next to Pierce and Leonard.
His growth thus far is best summarized in a Game 4 quote from
Twitter’s favorite son, Stan Van
Gundy:
“Tatum, at the end of last year, was thought of in this league
as a great scorer. Now, he is a great player, and it is because he
has become an outstanding defender and a willing — and very good —
playmaker.”
Well said, Stan. Well said.