NBA free-agency activity fizzled out after many teams spent all
of their available cap space. However, there's one situation that
may not be resolved anytime soon: Lauri Markkanen and the Chicago
Bulls are in a stalemate over his impending future.
Markkanen’s restricted free agency has been a nightmare for the
seven-foot Finnish big. Many teams pivoted to other options once
Markkanen overvalued his worth on the open market. The fact that
the Bulls could match any offer sheet for the 24-year-old likely
scared some teams away too.
The Charlotte Hornets were very interested in Markkanen,
reportedly preparing an offer sheet for the Bulls’ power forward.
At the last minute, Charlotte went in a different direction and
signed Kelly Oubre Jr. to a two-year deal. The San Antonio Spurs
also poked around and inquired about Markkanen, but decided against
bringing him onboard in the DeMar DeRozan sign-and-trade with
Chicago.
During the 2017-18 season, Markkanen flashed as one of the best
rookies in the 2017 NBA Draft class. Averaging 15.2 points and 7.5
rebounds in just under 30 minutes per game, while shooting 36.2% on
three-pointers, Markkanen looked the part of an eventual long-term
building block for the Bulls. However, over the last three years,
the former No. 7 overall pick hasn't shown much else.
His averages over the last three seasons have been nearly
identical to his rookie year: 15.7 points, 6.9 rebounds and 36.9%
from three in 29.3 minutes. Although the former Arizona Wildcat
finally improved his three-point efficiency in 2020-21 (shooting
40.3% from deep), he's become stagnant everywhere else. Is
Markkanen worth over $15 million per year as a floor-spacing
stretch big who is a subpar rebounder and even worse defender? The
quick answer is no, and teams seem to agree judging by how they've
approached the early stages of Markkanen's free agency.
Chicago is willing to let Markkanen exit, but they’re playing
hardball. The Bulls want a future first-round pick while also not
taking salary back in a potential sign-and-trade scenario. This not
only limits the pool of teams, but it also requires the franchise
that wants Markkanen to give up additional draft capital they may
not want to relinquish.
At this moment, a return for Markkanen to the Windy City for his
fifth season is certainly on the table. Markkanen’s qualifying
offer is $9 million, so this could be a scenario where he signs the
dotted line, then becomes an unrestricted free agent next
offseason.
However, if Markkanen eventually gets his wish with a fresh
start elsewhere, which teams make the most sense for him? Let’s
explore several possible landing spots.
DALLAS MAVERICKS
If a team wants to get involved in a sign-and-trade for
Markkanen, they need to have one of these two things: a traded
player exception (TPE) or salary-cap space. At this point, there
are very few teams with enough wiggle room to give Markkanen an
annual salary above $10 million, so the TPE could be the best bet
to make a move occur.
Dallas certainly fits the billing, as they own a $10.9 million
TPE. Does Markkanen want to sign a three-year deal that pays just
$1.9 million more than his qualifying offer? Unless he's dead set
on never returning to Chicago, it’s not the best financial move for
Markkanen.
If the Mavericks want to acquire Markkanen while saving their
TPE, they would need to offload Dwight Powell’s $11 million salary
for 2021-22 plus another piece. For example, to meet the Bulls’ own
demands, Dallas sends Chicago a heavily protected future
first-round pick, while a team willing to absorb big salary (like
the Oklahoma City Thunder) takes on Powell, plus whatever else,
while also receiving their own draft compensation for the
courtesy.
In terms of fits for Markkanen, Dallas certainly stands out as
the best one remaining. With the potential to start alongside
Kristaps Porzingis at power forward, Markkanen would play a
low-usage role as a floor-spacing big who can open up the floor
even further for Luka Doncic. The defensive fit between Markkanen
and Porzingis is potentially horrific, but the offense could be
bolstered even further with the Finnish product’s arrival.
NEW ORLEANS PELICANS
New Orleans currently possesses the largest traded player
exception in the NBA after offloading Steven Adams and Eric Bledsoe
in a draft-day trade with the Memphis Grizzlies, and they can use
their $17.1 million TPE to absorb Markkanen for a price that works
for both sides.
The Pelicans need to keep adding perimeter shooters alongside
Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram. Right now, there’s not enough.
Although they acquired Devonte’ Graham via sign-and-trade, plus
drafted sharpshooting wing Trey Murphy III at No. 17 overall, they
need to keep adding more to their arsenal. Markkanen would
certainly provide fit in that role, coming off the bench in the
Bayou for around 25 minutes per game.
Jonas Valanciunas will be the starter alongside Williamson in
the Pelicans’ frontcourt, but Markkanen could be primed to slot in
as an eventual starter down the road. The fit between Williamson
and Markkanen is actually really solid, especially if the Pelicans’
former No. 1 overall pick is able to emerge as a rim protector like
he showed in college.
BOSTON CELTICS
Markkanen in Boston would certainly be an intriguing scenario.
Operating as a floor-spacing reserve big, Markkanen would provide
another scoring punch to a retooling Celtics roster that's banking
on further internal development from their fortified young
core.
Boston only has a $9.7 million TPE at their disposal, which
means they would need to get creative to fit Markkanen on their
books. Josh Richardson, who was recently acquired from Dallas, best
fits the salary-matching requirement to make a complicated
Markkanen sign-and-trade work. Richardson is eligible to be traded
again on August 19.
Adding Richardson’s $11.6 million alongside another piece on
their roster, for example Grant Williams at $2.6 million, gives
Markkanen close to his desired annual value. Dumping Richardson and
Williams onto a team like Oklahoma City makes this three-team
scenario work for all sides. (However, it remains to be seen if
Boston would be willing to part with Richardson and Williams to
land Markkanen.)
If Boston decided to pull the trigger, the rotation would look
like this after adding Markkanen:
Starters: Marcus Smart, Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, Al
Horford, Robert Williams
Second Unit: Dennis Schroder, Romeo Langford, Aaron Nesmith,
Lauri Markkanen, Enes Kanter
That’s a legitimate 10-man rotation, including a nice mix of
versatility off the bench for the Celtics. Keep an eye on Boston as
a dark-horse destination for an eventual Markkanen
sign-and-trade.
MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES
How ironic would it be for Markkanen to end up with the
organization that initially drafted him? When Markkanen walked
across the stage on draft night, he donned a Timberwolves hat, and
then he and Zach LaVine were dealt to the Bulls as part of the
Jimmy Butler blockbuster trade. Maybe we'll see a pseudo reunion in
the cards soon? Minnesota has reportedly showed interest in the
24-year-old.
Minnesota possesses no TPE, so they would need to offload salary
to a third team to meet Chicago’s negotiation price. Luckily for
the T-Wolves, they have a few different scenarios to make a
Markkanen sign-and-trade occur. The first one revolves around
Taurean Prince’s $13 million expiring, which is eligible to traded
again on August 18. Another example features Jarrett Culver and
Juancho Hernangomez, combining to make $12.4 million next
season.
Whichever direction Minnesota decides to go, they can make a
Markkanen deal happen (defense be damned). Adding Markkanen
alongside Karl-Anthony Towns, D’Angelo Russell and Anthony Edwards
would give Minnesota quite possibly the worst quartet ever
assembled defensively.
There’s a chance Markkanen could start for the Timberwolves or
come off the bench behind ascending prospect Jaden McDaniels, who's
a better complement alongside Towns in frontcourt combinations.
Markkanen would provide a nice scoring boost for Minnesota, likely
sliding in as their sixth man of the future.
OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER
Mentioned multiple times already in this exercise as a potential
dumping ground to make complicated sign-and-trade scenarios work,
would the Thunder actually be interested in Markkanen themselves?
It’s an interesting thought, especially when you realize they can
outright sign him without issue or use their $12.8 million TPE in a
trade. With 35 draft picks over the next five years, maybe they
value Markkanen enough to relinquish one to pair him alongside Shai
Gilgeous-Alexander?
The Thunder are creating an all-in scenario revolving around
high-upside swings in the draft featuring boom-or-bust prospects
like Aleksej Pokusevski, Darius Bazley, Theo Maledon and Josh
Giddey. Bringing at least an established presence on board could
provide a win in the short and long-term for Oklahoma City. If
Markkanen is able to reach his near-ceiling outcome eventually,
Oklahoma City would have a nice scoring combination in their
starting lineup.
Does Thunder GM Sam Presti even want to get involved in the
Markkanen sweepstakes, though? That’s the big question. The more
likely scenario involves Presti adding more picks to his ever-growing collection of future
draft capital thanks to Markkanen being shipped off
elsewhere.