The NBA’s free agency is set to
kick off this weekend, with the potential to be a wild period with
a flurry of game-changing transactions. While three of the top
names are expected to stay put — Kawhi Leonard (Los Angeles
Clippers), Chris Paul (Phoenix Suns), Mike Conley (Utah Jazz),
there is one big name that could emerge as the top-dog on the
market: Toronto Raptors point guard Kyle Lowry.
It’s not often a 35-year-old
floor general is the most coveted name on the open market, but
Lowry’s two-way prowess and leadership skills will be coveted by
any and every organization looking to make a championship push next
season. And, after the league watched Paul propel the Suns to an
NBA Finals appearance after missing the playoffs for 11 consecutive
seasons, many rebuilding teams wanting to jump a tier or two up the
proverbial ladder may give Lowry a call in the hopes he can do the
same.
Although the Raptors will try to
keep Lowry around, it’s likely in the best interest of both parties
to split off and begin anew after a down year that saw the Raptors
earn the No. 4 overall pick. If Lowry were to say no thanks to
re-signing with Toronto, it could begin an extensive rebuilding
period north of the border. Pascal Siakam’s name has continued to
billow in trade talks in the lead up to draft night, which could
signal Toronto is ready to build their future core around OG
Anunoby, Fred VanVleet, and the No. 4 pick.
Lowry’s decision in free agency
will cause ripple effects wherever he signs, potentially shifting
the balance of power in the Association. So, with him more than
likely to leave his longstanding post in Toronto, let’s dive into
which destinations make the most sense for the 15-year
veteran.
MIAMI HEAT
Miami flirted with the idea of
acquiring Lowry at the NBA trade deadline, but ultimately passed.
This time around, the Heat are well-positioned should they decide
to go all-in on adding Lowry alongside Jimmy Butler and Bam
Adebayo.
Lowry is an excellent fit within
the world-renowned “Heat Culture,” while playing alongside Butler
and Adebayo would take pressure off of him as a playmaker. Being
able to settle into an organization that not only identifies with
his effortless drive to win, but one that already has a supremely
talented duo in place to flank him, a Lowry-Miami match is one of
the strongest potential pairings.
In a sign-and-trade scenario,
which could be the preferred option wherever Lowry goes so as not
to leave Toronto empty-handed, shipping KZ Okpala and multiple
future second-round picks could get the job done.
Next season, Miami would trot
out a rotation featuring Butler, Adebayo and Lowry while also
having the flexibility to retain Victor Oladipo and Duncan Robinson
as a restricted free agent. Toss in promising young prospects Tyler
Herro and Precious Achiuwa and the Heat have a rotation stocked
with immediate, talented contributors.
LOS ANGELES LAKERS
Mutual interest between Lowry
and the Lakers has picked up steam recently, according to
Los Angeles
Times’ Broderick
Turner. Lowry and his former Raptors teammate DeMar DeRozan
recently expressed interest in joining the purple and gold, per
Turner’s intel. That could open up a new potential fit for Lowry
alongside LeBron James and Anthony Davis.
Los Angeles has been scouring
the market for an elite point guard to alleviate the playmaking
pressure off James, while also spacing the floor for the dynamic
duo to do damage inside. In free agency, there’s no better fit for
this role than Lowry, who averaged 7.3 assists on 39.6% shooting
from three-point range.
The Lakers won a championship in
the Orlando Bubble with Rajon Rondo as their primary point guard
outside of James. Not only would Lowry prove a massive upgrade over
Rondo, but he would elevate Los Angeles to a completely different
level as contenders. The Lakers’ new trio could go toe-to-toe in a
Finals series with Brooklyn’s super-team featuring Kevin Durant,
James Harden, and Kyrie Irving.
For the numbers to work, Los
Angeles would need to pull off a sign-and-trade for Lowry, a
familiar theme throughout this exercise. A structure that would
make sense for both sides without forcing Los Angeles to overpay
would include Kentavious Caldwell-Pope’s $13 million salary,
Montrezl Harrell’s $9.7 million player option, Alfonzo McKinnie’s
non-guaranteed $1.9 million, and multiple future second-round
picks. Such a scenario would also keep the team’s options open
should another potential sign-and-trade, for DeMar DeRozan or Buddy
Hield, perhaps, present itself, utilizing Kyle Kuzma and Talen
Horton-Tucker.
Adding Lowry would vault Los
Angeles from a top title contender to arguably the favorite heading
into 2021-22.
LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS
The Clippers can potentially
throw their name in the hat to court Lowry, but it’s a tricky
process. With limited future draft picks and overall player assets,
could they realistically entertain a Lowry sign-and-trade? Unless
Kahwi Leonard and Paul George successfully pulled off a recruitment
effort for Lowry, forcing the Raptors’ hand, then it’s a very tough
task.
The other Los Angeles squad can
offer up all of the following to Toronto for Lowry, assuming he
wants to join his former Raptors teammate with whom he won a title:
Patrick Beverley, Luke Kennard, the No. 25 overall pick and future
second-round picks.
A first-round pick for Lowry is
an enticing piece, but Beverley’s $14.3 million expiring contract
and Kennard’s 4-year deal might not get the job done. Unless the
Clippers can re-route Kennard elsewhere in a complicated three-team
sign-and-trade, the ingredients just aren’t in place for this to
happen.
Luckily for the Clippers, the
Oklahoma City Thunder could be the perfect place to send Kennard in
this scenario. In full-on asset collection mode, Los Angeles could
package Kennard with multiple second-round selections to Oklahoma
City to get them to facilitate a deal.
A potential framework for a
Lowry sign-and-trade involving the Clippers, Raptors, and Thunder
could look something like this:
Los Angeles receives: Kyle Lowry (3-year, $72 million
deal)
Toronto receives: Patrick Beverley, No. 25 pick, 2023
second-round pick
OKC receives: Luke Kennard, 2022 second-round pick (via
Kings), 2022 second-round pick
Although Leonard is expected to
miss most of next season with a partially torn ACL, George and
Lowry would help keep the Clippers afloat before his presumed
postseason return. All three together would give Los Angeles such a
great mix of shooting and defense. Lowry adds a completely
different element to the Clippers’ system, having them rival or
potentially exceed what the Lakers can do on the court.
A big-time dark horse given what
they can offer, the Clippers are certainly a team to keep an eye
on. Even if they can’t land Lowry, look out for them to try and
package Beverley and Kennard together to make some splashy move
this offseason.
DALLAS MAVERICKS
Unlike the other teams listed
above, the Dallas Mavericks can outright sign Lowry to a lucrative
multi-year contract without any issue. If Dallas was able to find a
trade partner for Josh Richardson’s $11.6 million player option,
which he will almost certainly accept, while also renouncing all of
their free agents (Tim Hardaway Jr., JJ Redick, Boban Marjanovic,
Willie Cauley-Stein), they would have $34.4 million in salary cap
space, per Cleaning The Glass. That’s more than enough to sign
Lowry, who might need a more expensive annual value to be persuaded
by Mark Cuban’s Mavericks.
The Mavericks are in a massive
predicament this offseason. After back-to-back years not living up
to his max contract extension, Kristaps Porzingis has put Dallas’
future flexibility in a bind. Playing more like a third option
behind Luka Doncic and Hardaway Jr. throughout last season, the
Mavericks have to be savvy to find a more suitable star running
mate than Porzingis alongside their young superstar.
This is where Lowry enters the
mix, and his fit next to Doncic could produce some beautiful
basketball on a nightly basis. Lowry and Doncic sharing
ball-handling duties, while also creating endless pick-and-pop
scenarios with Porzingis, would make the Mavericks’ offense even
more explosive than the record-setting unit it was just two seasons
ago.
Finishing as the No. 5 seed in
the Western Conference in 2020-21, Dallas could enter the
discussion of being a top-three seed with Lowry onboard. With
Doncic expected to take another leap in his game, an MVP campaign
shouldn’t be out of the question for him, while Lowry’s arrival
would take Dallas from being a fun playoff team to a real Finals
contender.
NEW YORK KNICKS
The New York Knicks are
projected to have over $50 million in salary cap space this
offseason. More than enough to make a big splash, if they so
desire. But could Lowry be the splash that makes New York an even
stronger contender in the Eastern Conference?
Under head coach Tom Thibodeau,
Julius Randle and former No. 3 overall pick R.J. Barrett produced
career-best seasons. Bolstered by their young talent — Immanuel
Quickley, Obi Toppin and Mitchell Robinson — New York is a team
ripe to take a leap next season should they add the right veteran
voice to the mix.
Lowry would bring so much
credibility to an already improving organization like the Knicks.
An ideal mentor for Barrett, Lowry would also serve to further
elevate the game of the All-Star Randle.
It would take an overpay,
potentially $30+ million annually, but Lowry playing in Madison
Square Garden on a more regular basis would be a fun sight to
behold.
NEW ORLEANS PELICANS
If you’re looking for one team
that could be ultra-aggressive this offseason to mirror the
shocking success of the Phoenix Suns, look no further than the New
Orleans Pelicans. Led by Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram, New
Orleans is that last big piece to vault them out of the lottery and
into the playoffs next season.
Lowry could certainly be the
Pelicans’ version of Chris Paul, who brought strong leadership to a
young core starved of a playoff maturity. The result was an NBA
Finals berth for Phoenix after missing the playoffs for 11 straight
seasons.
And the clock has also started
already on Zion Williamson, all the more reason to be proactive in
their search this offseason. Discontent from Williamson’s camp has
been growing louder, and something drastic might need to happen for
the former No. 1 overall pick not to make history as the first
player to play his fifth year on the restricted tag.
To avoid the worst-case scenario
down the line, New Orleans would be wise to make a full-court press
on Lowry. Making room for him under the salary cap would be an
intricate juggle, though. To sign Lowry to a deal worth $25+
million per year, New Orleans would have to renounce their
restricted rights to Lonzo Ball while also moving Eric Bledsoe in a
salary dump. Should Lowry want closer to $30 million annually, the
Pelicans might need to let go of their rights on restricted free
agent Josh Hart as well.
That said, the Pelicans should
do whatever is necessary to land Lowry. They are one of the few
teams around the Association that feels like something splashy
needs to happen to appease their young stars and truly take the
next step.
PHILADELPHIA 76ERS
Philadelphia is a huge long shot
in the Lowry sweepstakes, but that doesn’t mean they won’t try
their hardest to make it happen.
A construct for a
Lowry-to-Philadelphia sign-and-trade would need to revolve around
Ben Simmons. According to Marc Stein, Toronto has sniffed around on
Simmons’ availability, so there could be something to work with
here. But what type of package would make sense for both sides in a
Lowry-Simmons swap?
In what would be one of the
biggest blockbusters in recent memory, it would have to revolve
around the Raptors’ No. 4 overall pick. Like, say, Lowry, the No. 4
pick, and potentially another future first-round pick for
Simmons.
Toronto would kickstart a new
era led by Simmons, OG Anunoby, and Fred VanVleet. Pascal Siakam
could then be flipped to a team like Golden State for their own
lottery picks to recoup lost draft capital in this proposed
sign-and-trade. Meanwhile, the Sixers’ new big three would consist
of Joel Embiid, Tobias Harris, and Lowry. Add into the mix
Philadelphia acquiring a win-now prospect atop the draft such as
Gonzaga’s Jalen Suggs or Florida State’s Scottie Barnes.
Lowry holds the key to a lot of
potential dominos in the NBA this offseason. Wherever Lowry wants
to go, it will have huge ramifications. Stay tuned to
BasketballNews.com for all the latest on the NBA’s top free
agents.