MONTVALE, N.J. – The rest stop on the Garden State Parkway was
almost completely empty early Sunday morning as a man and a dog
pulled up in a Toyota Camry with $20 and an idea.
Why not take a chance on the possibility that a $20 bill could
become $6,000 by the time June arrives, if Kyle Lowry can become
the NBA's Most Valuable Player next season?
Improbable, yes. Impossible? No.
Heck, the dog liked the idea, so we did it.
And with that premise, the sinkhole that is the legalized U.S.
sports gambling market claimed another $20, this one going to
BetMGM, which currently has 66 players listed with MVP odds for the
upcoming season, with Luka Doncic of the Dallas Mavericks the 4-1
(+400) favorite.
Nobody outside of the Lowry household has probably used his name
and the phrase MVP together in the same sentence in the
three-and-a-half weeks since the Toronto Raptors executed a
sign-and-trade with Miami that sent Lowry to the Heat for Goran
Dragic and Precious Achiuwa.
Lowry, 35, is about to enter his 17th NBA season and will be
playing for his fourth team. He is coming off a lost season of
sorts in which the Raptors were forced to play their home games in
Tampa, Fla. And Lowry played in only 46 contests because of a back
injury and several games in which he was rested. His spectacular
moments were few and far between, but he did have a 37-point,
11-assist output in his final game of the regular season on May 2
against the Los Angeles Lakers.
Pat Riley and Erick Spoelstra have brought him in to replace the
tandem of Dragic and Kendrick Nunn that handled the point-guard
duties for the Heat over the past two seasons. The thinking is that
despite his advanced age, Lowry still has plenty in the tank. He
was not all that bad last season, shooting 39.6% from three-point
range while averaging 17.2 points (down from a career-high 22.4
points in 2016-17) and 7.3 assists.
For Lowry to even sniff the MVP discussion, a bunch of things
would need to happen:
• The Heat would need to seriously outperform expectations
(their over/under win total is 48.5);
• Lowry would need to become a 20-point scorer for just the
third time in his career while also outscoring teammate Jimmy
Butler, who has averaged 20.0 or more points in six of the past
eight seasons;
• He also would need to be among the top-three in assists and
assist-to-turnover ratio, while also being among the league leaders
in steals because MVP candidates always have their success
quantified statistically;
• A series of unfortunate events would take out all of the other
top MVP contenders, sort of like what happened last year when
Nikola Jokic was the last man standing.
Again, all of these things happening together are unlikely. But
at 300-1, and with only $20 wagered, we file this one under the
“nothing ventured, nothing gained” department. And with that, let’s
have a look at the other player-award future markets, and where $20
flier bets might bring some extra anticipation as we count down the
longest month… the one that snakes along before training camps
open.
Other odds at BetMGM.com:
MOST VALUABLE PLAYER: Listed behind Doncic are
Joel Embiid and Kevin Durant at +700, Giannis Antetokounmpo at
+800, Steph Curry at +900, Damian Lillard at +1100, LeBron James at
+1400 and Trae Young and Jokic at +1600. Intriguing prices include
James Harden at +2500, Julius Randle at +6600 and Zach LaVine at
+8000.
DEFENSIVE PLAYER OF THE YEAR: Rudy Gobert is
co-favored at +350 along with Ben Simmons, who is still a member of
the Philadelphia 76ers and might actually win this award if he
comes back to Philly and simply gives up on the idea of being
anything other than a distributor and a dunker (especially when
open) on the offensive end. Gobert has won the award in three of
the past four years, so we are due for a perimeter player to take
this one, as Giannis Antetokounmpo did two years ago and Kawhi
Leonard did in 2014-15 and 2015-16 before Draymond Green won the
award the following season. With that in mind, interesting prices
are available on Jrue Holiday (+2000), Jimmy Butler (+4000) and
Robert Covington (100-1).
ROOKIE OF THE YEAR: Cade Cunningham of the
Detroit Pistons is favored at +250, and we should all remember that
a team’s win-loss record typically impacts voting on this
particular award less than all others. So this will be a stat-based
race, which may or may not work in Cunningham’s favor due to his
workload, which should be heavy. The same goes for No. 2 pick Jalen
Green of the Houston Rockets (+300), as nobody else had odds lower
than 7-1 at this point. A player from outside the top-three in the
draft has not won Rookie of the Year since Malcolm Brogdon (No. 36)
in 2017, and before that it was Michael Carter-Williams in 2014. If
it is to happen this year, might it be Chris Duarte of the Indiana
Pacers? Despite being a rookie, he is much older (24) than his
draft classmates – the same age as Brogdon during his rookie year.
He is on the board at +3500, and undrafted center Jock Landale of
the San Antonio Spurs (who Patty Mills was raving about last week)
is 125-1.
SIXTH MAN OF THE YEAR: Incumbent Jordan
Clarkson is the +500 favorite ahead of his Utah Jazz teammate Joe
Ingles (+1200). The newest Brooklyn Net, Patty Mills, is at +100
along with Kevin Huerter of the Atlanta Hawks. This is a
guessing-game category to a large degree if you take into
consideration that aside from Lou Williams in 2017 and 2018, nobody
has won this award in back-to-back years since Detlef Schrempf did
it in 1991 and 1992. Dragic is +1400 in his new home city of
Toronto (for now), and Alex Caruso is +3000 with the Chicago Bulls.
Thaddeus Young (San Antonio) and Kelly Olynyk (Detroit) are +6600
with their new teams, and Dwight Howard of the Lakers is in a group
of players at 100-1.
COACH OF THE YEAR: This award will go to
someone who outperforms expectations, so is it out of line to
suggest that Tom Thidodeau of the New York Knicks (priced at +2500)
is a serious contender to become the first coach to win this award
in consecutive seasons since Hubie Brown (who shared the award with
Gregg Popovich In 2003 and then won it outright in 2004)? The books
have set the Knicks’ over/under at just 41.2, which basically is
setting them up to be a .500 team after they finished fourth in the
East last season, 10 games over .500 at 41-31. Steve Nash of
Brooklyn (+850) is the favorite, just ahead of Miami’s Erik
Spoelstra (+900). Jahmal Mosley of Orlando has the longest odds
(+8000).
MOST IMPROVED PLAYER: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
of Oklahoma City is co-favored (+700 along with Zion Williamson),
perhaps because he is just about the only NBA-caliber player
suiting up for the Thunder in the upcoming season. Intriguing
long-odds players include BasketballNews.com favorite OG
Anonudy (+6600) and Seth Curry at +8000.
STAT LEADERS: Bradley Beal (+275) is favored to
lead the league in scoring. Clint Capela (+125) is the favorite in
rebounding, while James Harden (+120) is tops for assists and Steph
Curry (+125) is expected to make the most three-pointers (of
course).