Potential is a strange thing. It’s not something tangible that
you can hold in your hand, like a lightsaber or a McRib. Yet we
tend to obsess over it. Sometimes, we even lend it more weight than
observable talent.
The NBA and all those associated are not immune from this
tendency. We circumnavigate the globe in search of the game’s
most fascinating prospects in the hopes that their unique skillsets
will help deliver our favorite franchise to the promised land.
However, all too often, we fail to stop and ask ourselves, "What
are the limits of our imagination?"
Arguably no player exemplifies this pattern in human nature
better than Anthony Edwards. On one hand, once you see the flashy,
second-year guard showcase his frenetic athleticism and effortless
charm, it’s easy to come away convinced that he could be the one to
pry the Minnesota Timberwolves out of the depths of playoff
irrelevancy. On the other hand, it’s hard to chalk up his funky
shooting mechanics, questionable shot selection and tendency to
lose focus on defense to mere growing pains.
This polarity leaves us in a state of basketball limbo. Anthony
Edwards: Savior or bust? Which label (if either) is more
appropriate? To frame it more pointedly: Just how high can Anthony
Edwards fly?
In an attempt to examine Edwards' ceiling, I scoured NBA history
to find players with a similar skillset and explored whether
Edwards could follow a similar trajectory. I decided to look at
five possible developmental outcomes for the young guard. For each
player comparison, I've included that player’s peak season in terms
of Box Plus/Minus (using the BackPicks version of the stat) and an explanation of
what Edwards would need to add to his game to reach that level
(except for the “Pessimist Floor” tier). Lastly, I offer my
thoughts on which tier I think Edwards is most likely to reach.
Tier 1: Pessimist Floor - Andrew Wiggins
(Starter)
Peak BPM (2020-21): 1.0 (T-150th that
season)
Yep, I didn’t wait long to start pissing people off. To avoid
Timberwolves fans going into a state of existential dread, I won’t
spend too much time on this comparison. But you have to admit,
these numbers (and the situations surrounding these two players)
look pretty gosh darn similar.
In all seriousness, though, you would need to have a major case
of the Rust Cohle “I’m bad at parties” to believe that Anthony
Edwards, barely a full calendar year into his career, won’t get any
better than he is right now at age-20.
The more optimistic among us will point to Edwards’ violent athleticism and penchant for invading the
interior (79th percentile rim frequency, per Cleaning the Glass) to
say that at the very least, he will match the production of the
post-Jordan wave of athletic two-guards from the early 2000s —
particularly Jerry Stackhouse.
With all his shots at the rim, you would think Edwards would
produce more than the 3.3 free-throw attempts per 75
possessions that he’s currently averaging. Yet watching him
reveals that he struggles identifying when to slow down and deploy
his strength on his drives. For instance, on this play, he should
have utilized his size advantage on De'Aaron Fox by taking a power
dribble and forcing Fox to foul him, rather than trying to zoom
past Fox, pick up his dribble and give Fox an opportunity to rip
the ball out of his hands.
Edwards is already handling high-volume usage at near
league-average efficiency. But to increase both those outputs
further, he’s going to need to use his physical tools to earn some
more freebies at the line.
Tier 3: Median Outcome - Donovan Mitchell (Solid
All-Star/Weak All-NBA)
Peak BPM (2020-21): 3.9 (T-19th that
season)
One player whom Edwards garnered comparison to during the
pre-draft process was Donovan Mitchell. Though I’m not sure how similar
their physical parameters are these days, the Spida trajectory is
still instructive as it features an aspect critical in transforming
an inefficient volume scorer to an offensive focal point: the
pull-up jumper.
In 16 playoff games, from 2017 to 2019, Mitchell shot 29% on 75
pull-up jumpers. In the last two postseasons, he shot 47% on 117
pull-up jumpers over the course of 17 games (per NBA.com). This
improvement helped catapult his True Shooting Percentage from an
abysmal sub-50%, in the 2018 and 2019 playoffs, to a stellar 64%
over the past two postseasons.
Conversely, in his young career, Edwards has shot 32.6% on his
248 pull-up jumper attempts, per NBA.com. While we’ve yet to
witness him in a playoff setting, his learning curve in that
environment would likely be significantly less steep (and his
ascension to All-Star status would likely come far more quickly) if
he could start knocking down those types of shots at a mid-40%
clip.
Tier 4: Reasonable Ceiling - Vince Carter (Solid
All-NBA)
Peak BPM (2000-01): 4.7 (T-7th that season)
While Mitchell is one of the better shooters in today’s game,
peak Vince Carter had a case as the best in the league during his
heyday. As Cody Houdek pointed out in an
article for Premium Hoops, Carter shot 34% of his team's threes in
2000-01 (converting nearly 41% of his
attempts), which matches Steph Curry’s share in his famous
2015-16 unanimous-MVP season.
In the string of clips below, you'll get a glimpse of Carter’s
expansive shooting vocabulary. Like Mitchell, he had the pull-up
jumper down pat, but he could also knock down shots off the
catch-and-shoot, from the triple-threat position, while falling
away and following a nasty stepback.
For Edwards to reach All-NBA status without being a high-end
contributor on defense (more on this in a bit), he will need to
sport a similar cache of weapons to reach peak Carter-levels of
volume and efficiency (nearly 27.5 points per 75
possessions on +3.3% Relative True Shooting Percentage).
Luckily for him, he’s got the bag in his hands; he just needs to
deploy it more efficiently.
Another thing that Edwards needs to take from Carter is his
self-awareness. Even before his mature years in Memphis and
Atlanta, Carter was wise enough to recognize his limitations as a
primary ball-handler, so he made it a point to get the ball out of
his hands as quickly as possible. That wisdom led to some nice
feeds, like this one right here:
Too often, Edwards falls prey to the
“let’s-see-how-quickly-I-can-deflate-the-basketball-by-dribbling-it-excessively”
school of thought, and it leads to pointless sequences like this
one here:
Fortunately, he has moments of passing clarity where he analyzes
the floor and quickly identifies the right play too:
If Edwards can learn to get the ball out of his hands quicker,
it will make it easier for the Wolves to insert a stronger
ball-handler next to him (*cough* Ben Simmons *cough*), which
increases the team’s potential for building a high-level offense
around him. Couple that with the outside shot-making mentioned
earlier, and you have a recipe for how Edwards can develop into an
All-NBA player.
You knew this was coming. Wade, for my money — the third
greatest two-guard ever — is the apex of the Edwards’ archetype
(because Michael Jordan isn’t actually human, and the level of technical soundness
required to match Kobe Bryant isn't a reasonable expectation for
someone who didn't commit to basketball full-time until high
school).
With that said, Edwards even reaching Wade-level is a shot in
the dark, in part because of Wade’s status as one of the premier
perimeter defenders of all-time. What distinguished him from others
in this regard was his affinity for racking up “stocks.” He
finished in the 86th percentile or higher in both block and steal
percentage for his position every year from 2005-2013, per Cleaning
the Glass. The Ant-man currently sits in the 80th and 79th
percentile in those stats, which does bode well for his defensive
impact moving forward.
Wade was also a strong man defender who used his strength, speed
and savvy to keep other guards in front of him. Look here as Wade
defangs the Mamba himself:
Edwards has shown flashes of similar shutdown artistry (as in
the first two clips below), but he’s also had his fair share of
“olé” moments mixed in there as well (as in the last two clips
below):
On offense, Wade surpasses Stackhouse’s free-throw drawing
rates, Mitchell’s playoff-scoring potency and Carter’s best volume
and efficiency outputs while somehow managing to blend that with
strong playmaking.
Wade shares Carter’s knack for making quick-time decisions as a
secondary/tertiary playmaker, but when necessary, he’s also able to
flip the switch and operate as a high-level offense's lead
initiator. For example, the 2005-06 Miami Heat finished seventh in
the league in offensive rating with Wade as the team’s leading assist man.
Here are some clips that demonstrate Wade’s playmaking
abilities:
His status as a passer is further solidified by Ben Taylor’s
Passer Rating stat, where he
scores over a 6 (which is a good score for guards) in 13 of his 16
seasons, including peaking at a rating of 8 in the 2008-09 season,
per Backpicks.
To become an MVP-level impact player (which Flash was at his
peak), Edwards will need to significantly improve his playmaking
(his Passer Rating is 3.5 this season), become an
All-Defensive-caliber contributor and increase his volume and
efficiency to the numbers we discussed previously. A tall task
indeed.
So can he ever reach that MVP level?
The Verdict: Tier 4
As of right now, I would have to say no.
I have a difficult time seeing him developing into the lead
initiator that Wade was, which historically is a requirement for
any on-ball/off-ball hybrid perimeter player to reach MVP-caliber
production.
Watching Edwards play, you witness too many lost shot-creation
opportunities because he’s either missing open guys (as in the
first clip) or delivering his passes inaccurately (as in the second
clip):
He’s young and still has plenty of time to improvehis
playmaking, but as I hinted at earlier, he started his full-time
basketball journey a little later than most, and that means it will
be difficult for him to develop the feel necessary to make the higher-level
reads that someone like Wade was capable of executing.
Still, I think Edwards eventually masters the art of changing
speeds to help increase his free-throw rates, becomes an efficient
and versatile outside shooter, and creates enough havoc on defense
to someday develop into an All-NBA-caliber player. And this means
that the Timberwolves might have finally found the centerpiece they
need to build a winner in Minnesota.