Phoenix Suns at Milwaukee Bucks (-5, 222)
After it looked like Phoenix was
going to run away with the series, Giannis and Co. have gone to
work. Milwaukee now sits one game away from winning it all at home.
Oddsmakers liked what they saw from the Bucks in Game 5 and have
made Milwaukee a five-point home favorite in tonight's matchup. The
books have also set the total to 222 for this game.
The Suns came out hot in Game 5,
but just when it looked like they were about to run away with the
game, the Bucks answered with a barrage of buckets, led by their
trio of Giannis, Jrue Holiday and Khris Middleton.
Antetokounmpo was his usual
monster-self with 32 points, nine rebounds, and six assists.
Middleton came up big with clutch shots throughout the second half,
pouring in 29 points.
But, the X-Factor for Milwaukee
in the vital game was Jrue Holiday.
Holiday’s defense has been solid
all series, but his offense was nowhere to be found. That all
changed in Game 5, as he shot 50% from the field, 60% from three
and scored 27 points to go along with 13 assists. Holiday also made
the play of the game when he stole the ball from Devin Booker in
the final minute of the contest and threw an alley-oop to the Greek
Freak to essentially seal the game.
On the other side of the ball,
the Suns will need valiant efforts from their Big Three if they
want to bring the series back to Phoenix. For what it's worth,
Booker has held up his share of the bargain, scoring over 40 points
in back-to-back games. But the Suns go as Chris Paul goes, which
means he’ll need to be more aggressive to start the game tonight.
CP3 had a huge fourth quarter in Game 5, so he’ll need to carry
that momentum into tonight’s outing if Phoenix wants to steal this
game on the road.
A big X-Factor on Phoenix’s side
to watch tonight is Deandre Ayton. Foul trouble and inconsistency
has derailed Ayton’s first Finals appearance. It'll be vital for
the big man to be aggressive on both sides of the floor, and we
wouldn’t be surprised to see Phoenix try to get him the ball early
to get him going.
Both teams shot lights out in
Game 5, especially from deep, as the Suns hit 68.4% of their threes
while the Bucks connected on 50% of their looks from deep. We
envision some shooting regression in tonight’s game, coupled with
the fact that Phoenix will play with more intensity, that makes us
lean toward the under.
The public is on the Suns
tonight at a slight rate, with 59% of the tickets on Phoenix.
Bettors are also liking the over, with 55% of gamblers hitting the
Phoenix is the best road team in
the NBA, as they are 30-16 straight up. On the flip side, Scott
Foster is reffing tonight, which has usually spelled doom for Paul
in the past. Since 2014, when Foster is a referee, Paul's playoff
teams have gone 1-12 straight up and 1-12 against the spread, per
Even though that is a tough stat
to get over, we have Phoenix as live dogs tonight, meaning we think
they win straight up. This series is too good to not go seven
games, so we will gladly grab the five points in this
Leans: Suns +5 and Under 222
BetQL Model Predictions & Picks
BetQL’s NBA model has run 10,000
simulations of this game to provide insight on how the game will
pan out, and after all those simulations, the model likes the Suns
+5. Currently, the point spread of this game sits at +/- 5 with the
Bucks as home favorites. BetQL’s model would have made Phoenix a
3.5-point underdog tonight, meaning there is big betting value on
them at +5. Keep reading below to get picks from the experts at
Against the Spread Pick:
model is leaning towards
the Suns with a 2-star rating on the game, and projects the final
score to be Suns 109.5, Bucks 113. As for the expert bettors, they
are also backing the Suns, but be sure to check back with BetQL to
see the most updated odds, lines and spreads for this game before
The over/under for this game is
set at 222 points. The BetQL model recommends taking the over for
this game, and has a 1-star play on the current number.
Prop Bet Spotlight
The BetQL computer model has
identified a 5-star prop that we like for tonight’s matchup
in Devin Booker OVER 4.5 assists.
He is averaging 3.8 assists per
game in this series and has gone over this number two times already
in the NBA Finals.
Pick: We are
backing the model and taking Booker to go over his assists mark
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