The Phoenix Suns head to Milwaukee to take on the Bucks tonight in Game 6 of the NBA Finals. The Bucks stole Game 5 in Phoenix, defeating the Suns 123-119. Giannis Antetokounmpo led the way for Milwaukee, scoring 32 points. DraftKings Sportsbook currently has Milwaukee as huge -425 favorites to win the NBA Finals. On the flip side, Phoenix sits at +330 to win it all.

Can the Suns force a Game 7? Let’s take a look at who has the edge in Game 6 and find out BetQL’s NBA best bets for this NBA Finals matchup. 

Game Preview

Phoenix Suns at Milwaukee Bucks (-5, 222)

After it looked like Phoenix was going to run away with the series, Giannis and Co. have gone to work. Milwaukee now sits one game away from winning it all at home. Oddsmakers liked what they saw from the Bucks in Game 5 and have made Milwaukee a five-point home favorite in tonight's matchup. The books have also set the total to 222 for this game.

The Suns came out hot in Game 5, but just when it looked like they were about to run away with the game, the Bucks answered with a barrage of buckets, led by their trio of Giannis, Jrue Holiday and Khris Middleton.

Antetokounmpo was his usual monster-self with 32 points, nine rebounds, and six assists. Middleton came up big with clutch shots throughout the second half, pouring in 29 points.

But, the X-Factor for Milwaukee in the vital game was Jrue Holiday. 

Holiday’s defense has been solid all series, but his offense was nowhere to be found. That all changed in Game 5, as he shot 50% from the field, 60% from three and scored 27 points to go along with 13 assists. Holiday also made the play of the game when he stole the ball from Devin Booker in the final minute of the contest and threw an alley-oop to the Greek Freak to essentially seal the game.

On the other side of the ball, the Suns will need valiant efforts from their Big Three if they want to bring the series back to Phoenix. For what it's worth, Booker has held up his share of the bargain, scoring over 40 points in back-to-back games. But the Suns go as Chris Paul goes, which means he’ll need to be more aggressive to start the game tonight. CP3 had a huge fourth quarter in Game 5, so he’ll need to carry that momentum into tonight’s outing if Phoenix wants to steal this game on the road.

A big X-Factor on Phoenix’s side to watch tonight is Deandre Ayton. Foul trouble and inconsistency has derailed Ayton’s first Finals appearance. It'll be vital for the big man to be aggressive on both sides of the floor, and we wouldn’t be surprised to see Phoenix try to get him the ball early to get him going.

Both teams shot lights out in Game 5, especially from deep, as the Suns hit 68.4% of their threes while the Bucks connected on 50% of their looks from deep. We envision some shooting regression in tonight’s game, coupled with the fact that Phoenix will play with more intensity, that makes us lean toward the under.

The public is on the Suns tonight at a slight rate, with 59% of the tickets on Phoenix. Bettors are also liking the over, with 55% of gamblers hitting the over 222.

Phoenix is the best road team in the NBA, as they are 30-16 straight up. On the flip side, Scott Foster is reffing tonight, which has usually spelled doom for Paul in the past. Since 2014, when Foster is a referee, Paul's playoff teams have gone 1-12 straight up and 1-12 against the spread, per @Bet_Labs.

Even though that is a tough stat to get over, we have Phoenix as live dogs tonight, meaning we think they win straight up. This series is too good to not go seven games, so we will gladly grab the five points in this situation.

Leans: Suns +5 and Under 222

BetQL Model Predictions & Picks

BetQL’s NBA model has run 10,000 simulations of this game to provide insight on how the game will pan out, and after all those simulations, the model likes the Suns +5. Currently, the point spread of this game sits at +/- 5 with the Bucks as home favorites. BetQL’s model would have made Phoenix a 3.5-point underdog tonight, meaning there is big betting value on them at +5. Keep reading below to get picks from the experts at BetQL.   

Against the Spread Pick:

BetQL’s NBA model is leaning towards the Suns with a 2-star rating on the game, and projects the final score to be Suns 109.5, Bucks 113. As for the expert bettors, they are also backing the Suns, but be sure to check back with BetQL to see the most updated odds, lines and spreads for this game before tip.

Over/Under Pick:

The over/under for this game is set at 222 points. The BetQL model recommends taking the over for this game, and has a 1-star play on the current number.

Prop Bet Spotlight

The BetQL computer model has identified a 5-star prop that we like for tonight’s matchup in Devin Booker OVER 4.5 assists. He is averaging 3.8 assists per game in this series and has gone over this number two times already in the NBA Finals.

Pick: We are backing the model and taking Booker to go over his assists mark tonight.

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