To tank or not to tank, that is the question that every team
will have to face at one point or another.
That’s not to say there aren’t many routes to contention in the
NBA; the Eastern Conference’s top-three teams are proof of
that.
The Philadelphia 76ers -- the poster boy for tanking -- bottomed
out for four-straight years, resulting in a quartet of top-three
picks, including back-to-back No. 1 overall picks in 2016 and
2017.
The Brooklyn Nets made 2020 free-agency splashes, signing
superstars Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving to a combined $305 million
over four years (and then traded for James Harden).
The Milwaukee Bucks got lucky to draft centerpiece Giannis
Antetokounmpo with the 15th overall pick in 2013, and then, through
various trades over the years, acquired Khris Middleton and Jrue
Holiday.
Now, only a year removed from owning the league’s second-best
record and two years removed from winning the Larry O’Brien trophy
-- and currently on the outside looking in at the play-in
tournament -- the Raptors are asking themselves: to tank, or not to
tank?
It's a question that Masai Ujiri has been fortunate enough to
evade since arriving in Toronto in 2013, when, fortuitously, a Rudy
Gay trade to the Sacramento Kings sparked the greatest era in
Raptors history. An era that was capped with a
championship.
Two years later, five of the eight core championship players are
on new teams, including three of the starting five. Fans hope that
this season is an anomaly and that the team’s bad fortune is a
result of lady luck being held by customs at the border. With the
roster undergoing so much turnover, the front office is left having
to assess the current roster and future of this team.
Even with the NBA changing the lottery odds, tanking remains the
most efficient way for a majority of teams to obtain and develop
elite young talent -- something the Raptors haven’t been able to do
since James Dolan goofed into trading for Andrea
Bargnani.
But what does it mean to tank? And have the Raptors done a good
enough job of it?
In Hamlet’s most famous soliloquy, written by Shakespeare,
Hamlet asks:
“To be, or not to be? That is
the question—
Whether ’tis nobler in the mind
to suffer
The slings and arrows of outrageous fortune,
Or to take arms against a sea of troubles,
And, by opposing, end them?”
Asking if it’s better to suffer through your bad luck, or to
push back against it -- and in his case… die. But in a less-grim
Raptors scenario, shut down the real season and actively tank. So,
have the Raptors tanked?
Tanking is often reduced to losing as many games as possible to
ensure the highest odds at the draft. Have the Raptors done a good
job of that? If we’re keeping to Hamlet’s extreme binary, most
would argue not only have they not tanked, they haven’t not tanked
either. Which is correct, in the most immediate short-term
view of the season.
But what if we took a step back and shifted our focus? What if
we changed the lens with which we view the Raptors' decisions from
the short term to a long-term view? Instead of prioritizing losses
above all else, development becomes the main priority, with losses
added as a bonus. The outcome of games matters less than the
journey it took to get there. With our new adjusted lens, let’s
take a look at the back half of the Raptors' season to see how
they’ve fared.
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Keeping Kyle Lowry at the Deadline
There has been a good deal of criticism levied at the Raptors
for holding onto Kyle Lowry. If your plan is to tank, why hold onto
your 35-year-old, All-Star-caliber veteran point guard who's on an
expiring deal?
Although the question is fair, as William Lou of Yahoo Sports’ Canada
points out, the answer isn’t so cut and dry. The Raptors are
3-6 with Lowry since the trade deadline, and 6-9 in the 15 games
without him.
While Lowry is a free agent, and the Raptors risk losing him for
zilch in the offseason, they can also offer him the most money and
still include him in sign-and-trades this summer.
With our adjusted focus on the long-term success of the team,
holding on to the greatest Raptor in franchise history instead of
trading him for a pu-pu platter at the deadline feels like a
no-brainer. You haven’t closed your opportunities to trade him in
the summer, you have him to help the development of your young
guys, you’ve put yourself in a prime position to retain him should
he want to stay and (as an added bonus in the short term), he isn’t
winning you many games.
Pascal Siakam’s Extended Minutes
Since the trade deadline, Pascal Siakam is averaging 36.8
minutes per game, tied with Harrison Barnes for third-most in the
league. If the goal is to tank, why play your star extended
minutes?
Focusing solely on the short-term goal of losing as many games
as possible, playing Siakam nearly 37 minutes a night makes little
sense. Shifting your focus to a long-term view, we’ll see that wins
and losses for a marginal chance at a higher pick matter a lot less
than your 27-year-old’s continued development. In the last 10
games, Pascal Siakam is averaging 23.9 points, 7.4 rebounds and 3.6
assists on 46/35/74 splits.
The Raptors have managed to find a way to tank but not at the
expense of developing their core guys. As the season has
progressed, we’ve seen Siakam finally return to the player he was
prior to the league shutting down over one year ago. He’s taken on
a higher usage rate without the same major dips in efficiency. He’s
been more aggressive, more decisive and, in the last five games,
averaging over 28 points, 7 rebounds and 4 assists.
Winning Too Much
The Raptors have won nine games since the trade deadline. Many
on the #Fade4Cade train contend that that’s far too many wins. And
even with the short-term lens on, it's hard to see this
argument.
Bringing us back to the great Will Lou, of the Raptors' nine
wins, five were to tanking teams.
Those wins include: The Stephen Curry-less Golden State Warriors,
who Toronto beat by over 50 points (protect the net rating at all
costs), the Cleveland Cavaliers twice, the Orlando Magic and the
Oklahoma City Thunder.
Outside of the win-by-accident games, the Raptors defeated the
San Antonio Spurs in a game that saw Yuta Watanabe, Khem Birch,
Malachi Flynn and Chris Boucher all finish in double digits. They
took down the Washington Wizards, thanks to a game-winner by newbie
Gary Trent Jr. They upset the Brooklyn Nets, which saw Siakam and
OG Anunoby combine for 52 points on 18-for-33 shooting, and won
over the L.A. Lakers, as Lowry and Siakam combined for 76 points on
27-for-46 shooting. In all of these victories, the Raptors were
missing core players and allowing a rookie to play extended minutes
in competitive games.
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Since the deadline, the only Raptors to have played one-third of
the available minutes have been players with contracts that go
beyond next year or guys expected to stay (Gary Trent Jr., Khem
Birch and Yuta Watanabe).
Realigning our perspective to a long-term view, we wipe away any
anger over losses and recognize that outside of the Tankathon wins,
the Raptors won games by relying on their bench depth and young
guys to carry a large offensive load. You never waste an
opportunity to develop your young talent for a 1-to-2% chance at a
more favorable position in the lottery.
And even if you’re stubborn in your belief that they have won
too much over their last 20 games, the Magic (who own the next-best
odds) are 5.5 games back from Toronto. No matter how hard the
Raptors pivot toward the bottom of the standings, they were never
going to be bad enough to catch Orlando, let alone the other
tankers. (The Magic are so deep in the tank, they literally gifted
Birch to The North, who is now the Raptors' potential future
Hall-of-Fame starting center).
There are a multitude of routes to building a contender. There
are also several forms of tanking, and the Raptors have selected
one that's far less harsh than the #TrustTheProcess Sixers of
yesteryear. And that’s because a one-year tank, with a 33% chance
at a top-five prospect, isn’t going to catapult this team back into
contention.
If the goal of this year was to tank to come back next season
and once again contend, the Raptors have successfully done that
with a promising team of young players to support their core --
with or without Kyle Lowry next season. Going into the year, the
Raptors had no bigs and no bench. Since the trade deadline, the
Raptors have acquired Birch and Freddie Gillespie, providing them
ample opportunity to grow and develop for the future. In addition,
the Raptors went younger, trading Norman Powell to the Portland
Trail Blazers for Trent. And most importantly, the organization has
continued to develop Flynn, Watanabe, Jalen Harris and Paul Watson
Jr. while simultaneously distributing big minutes to Anunoby and
Boucher to grow into bigger roles.
Tanking for a lottery pick is only one piece of the puzzle for
team development, and the Raptors have placed themselves in prime
position to acquire a lottery pick and focused their attention on
development of their young, long-term prospects at the same
time.
Doing that at the expense of playing your veterans is a minor
form of tanking that should aid the Raptors in a major
way.