Winning a championship is the ultimate and absolute goal for NBA
teams. There is — obviously — only one champion crowned each year,
and 11 of the 30 NBA teams are still without a title.
But as is the case across all professional sports, the work to
win is never-ending, continuing even immediately after
securing a championship. And that’s because there’s always another
season coming down the pike.
Since the 2000 NBA Finals, the following 10 teams have won all
22 championships: Los Angeles Lakers (6), San Antonio Spurs (4),
Golden State Warriors (3), Miami Heat (3), Boston Celtics (1),
Cleveland Cavaliers (1), Dallas Mavericks (1), Detroit Pistons (1),
Milwaukee Bucks (1) and Toronto Raptors (1).
With a few exceptions, teams that won multiple championships
across the 20+ years since 2000 had slightly different cores for
each championship team. So, instead of celebrating championships,
continued success requires front offices to almost immediately
begin considering tweaks to their roster in order to remain
competitive enough to potentially repeat. Front offices know this.
And still, it’s difficult to execute.
Will either Boston or Golden State be able to defend their title
after these NBA Finals? Objectively, Boston is well-positioned to
do so. They have Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Marcus Smart, Derrick
White and Robert Williams III all signed through at least 2023-24,
all of whom are young enough to continue playing at their current
level.
Golden State is also well-positioned, at least in terms of their
contracts. Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson are signed through at
least 2023-24. Draymond Green has a player option, for 2023-24 and
Jordan Poole has a team option for 2023-24. Andrew Wiggins is the
lone player in limbo, with a contract that runs through only next
season. Further, the Warriors have a number of young pieces that
they can either keep around for the foreseeable future or package
in a deal to land another star, as Jonathan Kuminga, James Wiseman
and Moses Moody are still on rookie deals.
But Curry is 34 and Thompson is 32. Green is also 32 and already
exhibiting signs of decline in the 2022 NBA Finals. One more
successful season is certainly within the realm of possibilities,
but next season could just as easily be the campaign that the
wheels begin to fall off.
Either way, a look back at how recent defending champions have
fared the following season reveals some key findings. First, let’s
review how each team performed in the season following a
championship:
Milwaukee Bucks in 2021-22: 51-31, lost in
Eastern Conference Semifinals (4-3) to Boston Celtics
Los Angeles Lakers in 2020-21: 42-30, lost in
Western Conference first round (4-2) to Phoenix Suns
Toronto Raptors in 2019-20:
53-19, lost in Eastern Conference Semifinals (4-3) to Boston
Celtics
Golden State Warriors in 2018-19: 57-25, lost
in NBA Finals (4-2) to Toronto Raptors
Golden State Warriors in 2017-18:
58-24, won NBA championship (4-0) vs. Cleveland Cavaliers
Cleveland Cavaliers in 2016-17: 51-31, lost in
NBA Finals (4-1) to Golden State Warriors
Golden State Warriors In 2015-16: 73-9, lost in
NBA Finals (4-3) to Cleveland Cavaliers
San Antonio Spurs in 2014-15: 55-27, lost in
Western Conference first round (4-3) to Los Angeles Clippers
Miami Heat in 2013-14: 54-28, lost in NBA
Finals (4-1) to San Antonio Spurs
Miami Heat in 2012-13: 66-16, won NBA
championship (4-3) vs. San Antonio Spurs
Dallas Mavericks in 2011-12: 36-30, lost in
Western Conference first round (4-0) to OKC Thunder
Los Angeles Lakers in 2010-11: 57-25, lost in
Western Conference Semifinals (4-0) to Dallas Mavericks
Los Angeles Lakers in 2009-10: 57-25,
won NBA championship (4-3) vs. Boston Celtics
Boston Celtics in 2008-09: 62-20, lost in
Eastern Conference Semifinals (4-3) to Orlando Magic
San Antonio Spurs in 2007-08: 56-26, lost in
Western Conference Finals (4-1) to Los Angeles Lakers
Miami Heat in 2006-07: 44-38, lost in Eastern
Conference first round (4-0) to Chicago Bulls
San Antonio Spurs in 2005-06: 63-19, lost in
Western Conference Semifinals (4-3) to Dallas Mavericks
Detroit Pistons in 2004-05: 54-28, lost in NBA
Finals (4-3) to San Antonio Spurs
San Antonio Spurs in 2003-04: 57-25, lost in
Western Conference Semifinals (4-2) to Los Angeles Lakers
Los Angeles Lakers in 2002-03: 50-32, lost in
Western Conference Semifinals (4-2) to San Antonio Spurs
Los Angeles Lakers in 2001-02: 58-24,
won NBA championship (4-0) vs. New Jersey Nets
Los Angeles Lakers in 2000-01: 56-26,
won NBA championship (4-1) vs. Philadelphia 76ers
Whoever wins this year's NBA championship is most likely to
suffer a loss in the Conference Semifinals next season, if recent
NBA history is any indication. Seven of the past 22 defending
champions were eliminated in playoffs in the following season’s
second round.
There is also a decent chance that the 2022 NBA Champions will
qualify for the 2023 NBA Finals. Since 2000, 10 champions have made
it to the NBA Finals in back-to-back seasons — with five teams
repeating (including three times by the Lakers) and five teams
proceeding to lose in the Finals.
One thing is fairly certain: It's very rare for a championship
team to follow up their title with a poor showing the next season.
Only four teams were eliminated in the first round in the season
following a championship: the 2020-21 Lakers, 2014-15 Spurs,
2011-12 Mavericks and 2006-07 Heat. Since 2000, every NBA champion
has made the playoffs the following season. This trend should
continue, as both Boston and Golden State will bring back the
majority of their roster and be competitive next year.
Maybe you think reviewing the performances of recent defending
champs is irrelevant, as each team has its own idiosyncrasies.
Still, history is important and it's interesting to look back at
how teams have responded after achieving their ultimate goal.