The Los Angeles Lakers stumbled out of the gates in Game 1 of their first-round series against the Phoenix Suns on Sunday, losing 99-90. The loss has slightly shifted the series odds; while L.A. is still favored to win the series, the Suns have moved from +150 to -106 at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Will the Lakers be able to bounce back? Let’s take a look at who has the edge in Game 2 of this unconventional No. 2 vs. No 7 matchup, and find out which side BetQL’s NBA best bet model is picking in this game. 

Game Preview BetQL Model Predictions & Picks

Los Angeles Lakers (-1.5, O/U 208) at Phoenix Suns

The Suns received big performances from Devin Booker and Deandre Ayton in Game 1 to topple the defending champions. Booker, who got better as the season went on and finished the year scoring 25.6 points per game, came out to prove a point in the series opener. On the flip side, Lakers stars LeBron James and Anthony Davis both had subpar outings. Davis especially looked out of sync, finishing with just 13 points on 5-of-16 shooting. 

There’s a reason Phoenix ended the regular season with the second-best record in the Western Conference. Defensively, the Suns finished the year ranked No. 4 in assists allowed, No. 7 in points allowed, No. 8 in opponent's three-pointers allowed, and No. 9 in both rebounds and defensive rating. 

Offensively, Phoenix runs a lot of pick-and-roll, and ranks second in field goals made, third in assists, fifth in offensive rating and seventh in three-pointers made. The balance showed on Sunday.

The Lakers were dominated from the jump in pretty much every key metric, so it’s going to take an entire team effort to pull out a road win in Game 2. Look for L.A. to try to establish Davis early to jump-start this offense. I also envision playing Davis more at the 5 spot. 

Three-point shooting is another area the Lakers will need to improve to tilt the scales in this matchup. LA went 7-for-26 from deep, a putrid 26.9%, in Game 1. Los Angeles was also terrible from the free-throw line, going just 17-of-28 (60.7%). If they want to steal this game, they’ll need to shoot closer to their 35.3% season average from deep and 73.7% average from the line.

The biggest X-factor to look for in Game 2 will be rebounding. The Lakers, who were one of the best rebounding teams in the NBA (fourth), were badly outrebounded 47-33 in Game 1. They need to control the boards to get back into this series.

Gambling-wise, bettors tend to overreact to what they see in Game 1, a.k.a. recency bias. But, a lot of times, good teams tend to play lackadaisical or try out new rotations and lineups in the first game of their series. Call it hubris, but this is a trend that we’ve seen for years, especially from LeBron. In fact, James has never seemed to worry too much about winning the first game, and is now 4-7 in his last 11 series openers.

Chris Paul’s shoulder is an injury to keep an eye on. He left Game 1 for only a short time due to a right shoulder contusion, but clearly wasn't himself when he returned. He scored only seven points on eight shots, and clearly looked like he was laboring when shooting. CP3 is the engine that makes the Suns go, so if he isn’t 100% moving forward, that can swing this entire series.

Either way, I expect the Lakers to come out with much more energy from the start, which is why I like the Lakers -1 in the first half as well. You’d also expect James and Davis to score more than a combined 31 points. Teams like the Lakers that have been there before don’t panic after series-opening losses. Expect them to rebound in Game 2. 

Pick: Lean Lakers -1.5

BetQL Model Predictions & Picks

BetQL’s NBA model has run 10,000 simulations on this game to help provide insights on which team to bet, and after all those simulations, the model likes the Lakers -1.5. Currently, the point spread of this game sits at +/- 1.5 with Los Angeles as small road favorites, but BetQL’s model would have placed the line at Lakers -2.5, meaning there is some betting value on L.A. in this game. Keep reading below to see more NBA computer picks from BetQL’s model. 

Against the Spread Pick:

The model is leaning toward the Lakers -1.5 with a 2-star rating on the game, and it’s hard to argue with the model on this pick. The Lakers looked lethargic in Game 1, but should be able to bounce back in this scenario. We are backing the model and betting the Lakers -1.5.

Over/Under Pick:

The over/under for this game is set at 208 points. The BetQL model recommends taking over 208 for this game. Although unders are usually a great bet early in the playoffs, we don’t foresee a defensive battle here. Both James and Davis should have better games, and the Suns will continue to get buckets in their own right. Also, here’s a fun fact per BetMGM: Laker games have gone over the point total of 208.5 in 45 out of 74 matchups this season (60.8%). For all those reasons, I am backing BetQL’s 5-star pick and taking the over. 

If you want to take some action on a different game on tonight’s slate, make sure you check out BetQL for their NBA best bets tonight. You can find a 5-star bet and start cashing more tickets tonight with BetQL. 

Prop Bet Spotlight

The prop bet we have our eye on tonight is Devin Booker over/under 28.5 points, which we think he has a good chance to hit the over. Booker has been averaging around 25 points per game this season, and with Chris Paul’s shoulder injured, we should see Booker get an increased number of shots. Booker normally puts up 20-plus shots a game, and if Paul’s extra shots are going to Booker, he has a good chance to score at least 30 points. Game 1 also showed that the Lakers don’t have a good defensive matchup for Booker. 

Another prop bet we love is a bit more under the radar: Kyle Kuzma over 11.5 points, rebounds and assists. Kuzma had a very difficult Game 1, when he missed the two shots he took and only grabbed three rebounds. As we mentioned earlier, the Lakers rebounded the ball poorly in Game 1, and we expect them to bounce back here, which includes Kuzma. He was limited to 19 minutes in the game, as the starters were asked to carry a heavier load. If you think the Lakers are going to punch back and even the series in Game 2, then this Kuzma prop is likely a good bet.