The Los Angeles Clippers
extended the Western Conference Finals by winning Game 5, 116-102.
With Kawhi Leonard still sidelined, the Phoenix Suns are still huge
favorites to win the series (-560) at DraftKings
Can the Clippers come back from
another 0-2 deficit? Let’s take a look at who has the edge in Game
6 and find out the NBA
best bets for this
Phoenix Suns (-1, 215) at Los Angeles
The Clippers finally looked like
themselves in Game 5. Their defense was strong, holding Phoenix’s
dynamic offense to 102 points, and 9-26 from three-point land. When
it comes to gambling, the oddsmakers have made the Suns a small,
1-point favorite tonight.
Paul George had one of the best
games of his career on Monday, going off for 41 points, 13 boards
and 6 assists. He has played well this series, even without
Leonard, averaging 30.2 points, 10.8 rebounds, and 6.2 assists per
game. With L.A. in another do-or-die situation tonight, they will
need at least a 30-spot from George if they want to push this
series to a Game 7.
The Clippers as a whole came out
and punched the Suns in the mouth from the jump, even despite
losing big man Ivica Zubac for Game 5. Los Angeles fell back on
their small-ball lineup that’s been working so well throughout this
postseason. They also won the turnover battle, 9-14, and dominated
points in the paint, 58-32 -- two areas that will once again be
crucial in Game 6. Also, the Clippers need the Suns to have another
bad-shooting night from deep.
As for the Suns, despite losing
the game, Devin Booker played great. He’s been in a semi-funk since
breaking his nose, but he went off for 31-points in his last game
With that being said, the Suns
go as Chris Paul goes, and he’s been ice cold from three; he’s 0-9
from deep over his last two games. If Phoenix wants to close out
the series on the road tonight, they’ll need their backcourt stars
and Deandre Ayton to step up and lead them to victory.
Matchup wise, the Clippers have
found a lot of success with their small-ball lineup. Los Angeles is
used to playing without Leonard, especially due to his
load-management rest days, and it's shown on the court. The
Clippers still have a ton of talent on this roster and everyone has
stepped up, most notably Reggie Jackson. He’s been great all
postseason long, so look for him to continue to give this Clippers
team the spark it needs scoring wise.
The public is slightly on the
Suns in this game, with both the tickets and money around 62% on
the road team. When it comes to the total, bettors are expecting a
low-scoring game, with 55% of the tickets on the under.
Last game had to take a toll on
the Clippers, especially with them so banged up. PG carried a heavy
load and most of their starters played extended minutes. We see the
Suns’ trio carrying the team in this closeout game to punch their
ticket to the NBA Finals.
Lean: Suns -1
Pick: OVER 215
BetQL Model Predictions &
BetQL’s NBA model ran 10,000
simulations of this game to provide insight on how the contest will
pan out, and after all those simulations, the model leans the Suns
-1. Currently, the point spread of this game sits at +/- 1 with
Suns as road favorites. BetQL’s model would have placed the line at
Suns -2, meaning there is some betting value on the -1 number. Keep
reading below to get picks from the experts at
The model is leaning towards the
Suns with a 2-star rating on the game, and projects the final score
to be Suns 108, Clippers 106. We’re on the same side as the
to the expert bettors,
they are backing the Suns as of now too, but be sure to check back
with BetQL to see the most updated odds, lines, and spreads for
this game before tip.
The over/under for this game is
set to 215 points, and the BetQL model recommends taking the under
for this game. I disagree with the model’s 1-star play here, but
it’s always good to compare.
It’s an elimination game for the
Clippers, so they will foul until the very end. I also see some
positive shooting regression in-store for both teams, which makes
me like the over.
If you want to check out
picks for the rest of
the NBA playoffs, make sure to check out their site for those
The BetQL computer model has
identified a 4-star prop that we like for tonight’s matchup
in Terance Mann under 10.5 points.
He’s averaging 9.0 points a game
Pick: We are
backing the model and taking Mann to go under his 10.5-points
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