The second round of the NBA playoffs kicks off Saturday night at 7:30 p.m. when the Milwaukee Bucks hit the road to take on the Brooklyn Nets in Game 1. Currently, the point spread in this game sits at +/- 4 with the Nets listed as the favorite. Keep reading below to get caught up on how both teams got to this point, and find out which way BetQL’s NBA model is picking this game.

Both of these teams made easy work of their first round opponents, and now as fans and bettors, we are lucky to get one of the best head-to-head matchups in the league for round two. The Bucks have been a hot pick for years, but haven’t been able to make it over the hump, while the Nets are the newest super-team on the block looking to win a championship in their first year together.

Game Preview

The Nets are the higher seed in this matchup and will get home court advantage. They finished the year with the second-best record in the East, and are now looking to get by the No. 3 seed Bucks. In their first-round matchup, the Nets made light work of a struggling Boston team that was only able to take one game at home in that series. Other than Jayson Tatum being a human highlight reel, the Nets didn’t face any real adversity in the series.

Like in many years past, Kevin Durant absolutely dominated the series, while Kyrie Irving and James Harden were more than happy to be the second and third option. In the series against the Celtics, the Nets were lucky enough to be able to avoid playing a traditional center and utilized mid-season pick up Blake Griffin in that role. They won’t be that lucky in this series against the Bucks, and one of the biggest questions for Nets fans and bettors is: Who will protect the paint against this huge Bucks lineup?

The Bucks finished this regular season with the third-best record in the East, and are well on their way to avenging their underwhelming performance in the playoffs last season. Last year, the Bucks stood no chance against the Miami Heat in the Bubble. When playoff seeding was finally settled this season, and the Bucks and Heat were matched up for a Round 1 series, everyone thought it would take five or six games. Fortunately for Bucks fans, Milwaukee was able to sweep the Heat and avenge its loss last year. Other than an overtime win in Game 1, the series was never all that close. The Bucks completely overpowered the Heat on both ends of the floor. They will need to do the same to the Nets if they have any real hopes of advancing in this series.

Looking at the series odds at FanDuel, the Nets are the overwhelming favorite to advance in the series at (-200) to advance to the Eastern Conference Finals. On the other side, the Bucks are (+160) underdogs in this series to advance. Although the odds are great for the Nets to advance in this series, can Milwaukee do what it takes to steal Game 1?

BetQL Model Predictions & Picks

Against The Spread Pick:

BetQL’s NBA model has run 10,000 simulations of this game to provide insight on how the game will pan out, and after all those simulations, the model leans Bucks +4.

It is very hard to bet against the Nets after their dominant performance against the Celtics, but the BetQL team may be with the model in this Game 1 matchup.

The Nets were not challenged at all against Bostonm and more importantly, they weren’t challenged physically. The Bucks are a much larger and physical team that plays legitimate NBA bigs. The Nets are going to be forced to play either DeAndre Jordan or Nicolas Claxton in heavy rotation against the Bucks when they have a center on the floor.

Giannis will most likely pick up Durant throughout the series, and he will be able to challenge KD much more than the 32-year-old star was in the Celtics series. The Bucks even have Jrue Holiday to defend either Kyrie or Harden -- depending on how they strategize in the series. The Bucks' defense may not last throughout the series, but in Game 1, the physicality could have a big impact on the Nets' offense.

Pick: Bucks +4

Over/Under Pick

The over-under line for Game 1 is currently set at O/U 239.5 total points and BetQL’s model is loving the over. The line is set high here, and higher than any line both teams had in their round one series.

The Bucks were 2-2 O/U in their series against the Heat, but part of that can be attributed to the Heat scoring over 100 points in regulation once in those four games. On the side, Brooklyn was 3-1 O/U against the Celtics.

The Nets' high-powered offense, coupled with the fact that Brooklyn doesn’t exactly play defense, would make you think this game will go over. The only fear would be that the Bucks' defense will cause real issues for them, and they may look out of sorts in Game 1 with rookie coach Steve Nash. Either way, we are going to ride with BetQL’s over-under computer pick and bet over 239.5.

Pick: Over 239.5 total points

Prop Bet Spotlight

BetQL’s prop model is still running simulations, so you will have to check out their game prediction page here, but one prop the BetQL team has taken a close look at is Blake Griffin over-under 6.5 points. This may not be the sexiest prop on the board, but it has a great chance of hitting the under. The bookmakers even think the under is the play here because Under 6.5 points is at (-132) odds on FanDuel. Griffin’s over-under line has stuck at 6.5 throughout the Celtics series, where he only reached the over once in five games.

Against the Bucks, BetQL's team believes Griffin will see his playing time reduced, and it will be more and more difficult for him to find easy buckets. Check back with BetQL to see which props their model loves right before tip-off.

Pick: Blake Griffin Under 6.5 Points (-132)

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