In recent years, there are many examples of players who slipped
on draft night because they were older than their peers and teams
wanted to go with a younger, higher-upside option.
Players who fit this description in recent years include Desmond
Bane, Mikal Bridges, Jalen Brunson, Jalen Williams, Malcolm
Brogdon, Derrick White, Herb Jones, Grant Williams, Payton
Pritchard, Grayson Allen, Matisse Thybulle, Brandon Clarke and
Terance Mann among others.
Many of these players have outperformed their draft slot, and
quite a few were key contributors during the 2022 NBA Playoffs,
rewarding the teams that took a chance on them.
Every year, most NBA teams prioritize youth and upside in the
draft. As a result, the more experienced prospects tend to fall.
But given the success of these older players in recent years, could
we see teams shift their thinking a bit when it comes to these
prospects?
BasketballNews' senior NBA Draft analyst Matt Babcock believes
this could be the case.
“The trends seem to go in waves, but I do think some of the
recent success that older players have had will affect some
decisions to a certain extent,” Babcock said. “However, I believe
teams will always have somewhat of a juggling act when it comes to
selecting prospects who have upside and ones who are
NBA-ready.”
While it’s true that younger players tend to have more
potential, there is this idea that older prospects have already
reached their full potential, and what you see is what you get.
Bane, Bridges, Johnson, Jones and Co. have proven that this isn’t
always true, as they have each made huge strides since being
drafted despite their advanced age.
“The perception that an older rookie doesn’t have as much upside
isn’t a fair label for a tough-minded player who continues to work
on his game,” an Eastern Conference GM told BasketballNews. “I
think history and analytics show that the younger the player, the
more likely that player succeeds, but it isn’t a cut-and-dry method
when it comes to selecting players. There are older players who
often come from strong college programs who tend to have a chance
to succeed, because they have been through three-to-four years of
great coaching and have developed the work habits and toughness
that allow them to impact an NBA game right away.”
“A high ceiling isn’t just based on your physical gifts, a high
ceiling is based on your work ethic when nobody is watching,”
ESPN’s Fran Fraschilla added. “So whether it’s a 19-year-old player
or an older prospect with a few years of college experience, what
the team needs to figure out is, ‘What kind of character are we
drafting? When we pay him life-changing money, is he going to be
the same guy and keep working?’ I think you’re more confident
(trusting) a four-year-guy like a Desmond Bane or CJ McCollum
because you can go back and watch more of his career unfold, and
you’re more confident that those guys are going to continue
developing their game. So, in effect, their ceiling becomes just as
high as the guys who have all of this great potential and who could
be more boom-or-bust sometimes.”
Rather than generalizing and writing off players because of
their age, it’s important to evaluate each situation on a
case-by-case basis.
“I do believe in the concept that a younger player generally
possesses more upside and room for growth; I mean, it's common
sense,” Babcock said. “However, every player is different and has
had a different path to the pros, and subsequently, each player
needs to be evaluated separately rather than put into a general
classification.
“Every team and every pick is different. The way I see it, it's
like baseball. Every pitch presents a unique situation and requires
a different strategy, and so does every pick in the draft. Which
players are available? How do they fit within the team’s current
roster structure now and in the future? How does that team value
each player — whether it’s for their ability to contribute right
away or their upside? Do they have potential depth issues that need
to be addressed? Does an available player possess too much talent
to overanalyze? I could keep going on and on, but my point is that
I think it should come down to taking things case-by-case and
weighing the pros and cons rather than just selecting a player
who’s most ready or who possesses the most upside.”
:filters:quality(95)/images/story/body/usatsi_18148126_690w.png)
Fraschilla echoed this sentiment.
“I think the draft is always a case-by-case situation. Teams
always have to weigh whether to go after production vs. potential,”
Fraschilla said. “If they chase production, it’s usually a guy who
has been in college for three or four years, he’s proven himself
and he’s played in big games. If they chase potential, it’s
probably a freshman or a kid from the G League Ignite, and you’re
looking at a 19-year-old and trying to project where he’ll be at
age-25. You have a little bit more comfort with an older player,
but a little less upside allegedly.
"But a smart team always views it case-by-case. We’ve seen
four-year guys flame out and we’ve one-and-done guys flame out. I
think it’s a matter of a team doing the necessary homework on a
kid’s character, work ethic, self awareness to be a role player —
all of these things factor in.”
The East general manager pointed out that there’s another reason
teams may alter their approach and opt for more NBA-ready players:
"I would also say that some NBA teams are less inclined to focus on
what a 19-year-old can develop into by age 26 or 27 because there
is so much roster turnover and change in the league today."
Fraschilla also mentioned that sometimes older prospects are
more mature and come into the NBA knowing their role, whereas some
one-and-done prospects may struggle taking a backseat.
“Herb Jones is a perfect example of someone who knows who he is
— his self awareness is evident," Fraschilla said. "Even at
Alabama, he had talented guys around him, and he was a great
defender. He fits exactly the role that the Pelicans needed him to
play as a rookie. He played in a high-level college league where he
guarded really good players, and he plays with great energy.
"You probably feel more comfortable with the older player who
has more of a sense of who he is, as opposed to the one-and-done
guy who automatically thinks he’s going to be Penny Hardaway or
LeBron James or Kobe Bryant. In the NBA, 95% of the league are role
players. There are 25-30 great players and everyone else is a role
player."