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Heat

The Oklahoma City Thunder came out of last Tuesday&rsquo;s NBA Draft Lottery as the night&rsquo;s runner-up, taking home the No. 2 overall pick.&nbsp;
The Thunder have never received the first-overall pick in their franchise history, which technically goes back to 1967 when they were still the Seattle Supersonics. They have selected second on two occasions though, and both worked out really well (Kevin Durant in 2007 and Gary Payton in 1990).
The Thunder have a war-chest of draft picks in the coming years, but those picks are meaningless if they don&rsquo;t select a franchise-altering talent. Fortunately, the No. 2 pick should provide an opportunity to do so. The 2022 draft class features a few &ldquo;can&rsquo;t-miss&rdquo; prospects, including Auburn&rsquo;s Jabari Smith, Gonzaga&rsquo;s Chet Holmgren and Duke&rsquo;s Paolo Banchero. All three have their pros and cons, but adding any of them to the existing core of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Josh Giddey should work out beautifully.
In the 2021 NBA Draft, the Thunder made six selections, but they traded three of those players. They added Giddey (who was named to the 2021-22 All-Rookie Second Team), Tre Mann and Aaron Wiggins &ndash; none of whom are bigs. The Thunder did trade for a seven-footer in the 2020 draft (Aleksej Pokusevski), but he&rsquo;s still extremely raw and is not the same caliber of player as the top-three prospects.
Of course, there is still a lot of work to be done through the scouting process to effectively evaluate all three of this draft's most-coveted prospects, but a look back at the last 10 NBA drafts reveals a murkier history than one might assume. After <a href="https://www.basketballnews.com/stories/examining-the-success-of-teams-selecting-first-in-the-nba-draft" target="_blank" rel="noopener">examining the success of teams selecting No. 1 in the NBA Draft</a> last week, let's look at how recent No. 2 overall picks have fared.&nbsp;
2012 NBA Draft: Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Charlotte Bobcats/Hornets
The Hornets bombed with the second pick in 2012. Kidd-Gilchrist had a fine career, averaging 12.3 points and 7.9 rebounds per game across eight seasons in the NBA. The thing is, Bradley Beal was selected third and Damian Lillard was selected fifth, and both of those guys are All-NBA-caliber players annually. Comparatively, that&rsquo;s a huge miss for Charlotte.
Verdict: Failure.
2013 NBA Draft: Victor Oladipo, Orlando Magic
The Cavaliers certainly surprised many of us by picking Anthony Bennett with the first overall pick, but the Magic stuck to the script. Oladipo was universally seen as a top-three player in this draft, and he became the second-best player in the class before knee and quad injuries derailed his career.
As much as injuries have robbed much of what Oladipo was, he is still an intriguing player, and he&rsquo;ll probably command some decent free-agent offers this offseason. Obiously, CJ McCollumn (selected 10th) and Giannis Antetokounmpo (selected 15th) are better players, but neither was being considered by the Magic. Considering that Oladipo is a two-time All-Star, an All-Defensive selection and a one-time All-NBA selection, I&rsquo;d say the Magic did a fine job in picking Oladipo.
Verdict: Success
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2014 NBA Draft: Jabari Parker, Milwaukee Bucks
The 2014 draft was a weird one. Neither the first nor the second pick ended up being the best player from this draft class. Andrew Wiggins found a good role, even if he is far less successful than most thought he&rsquo;d be, but Jabari Parker really underwhelmed. Granted, Parker stuck around in the league for eight seasons, including some of the current one, but his career simply never materialized even if it&rsquo;s not his (nor Milwaukee&rsquo;s) fault.
Parker tore his ACL twice. He looked like he was becoming a pretty darn good player (even if he was a defensive liability) before the second ACL injury, averaging 20.1 points and 6.2 rebounds per game in 2016-17. However good Parker could have been, the fact of the matter is that Joel Embiid was intriguing enough as of draft night to be taken one pick later, and that stings.
Verdict: Failure
2015 NBA Draft: D&rsquo;Angelo Russell, Los Angeles Lakers
Here&rsquo;s an instance where a player actually was worth a top-three pick. The problem is that the Lakers had the second pick, and there&rsquo;s a big difference between Karl-Anthony Towns or Devin Booker and Russell. Making matters worse, the Lakers sent Russell to Brooklyn before he matured. His immaturity was part of the reason he was traded, but that doesn&rsquo;t change the fact that the Lakers picked him and moved on very quickly. Russell may or may not end up being a franchise-altering talent, but he hasn&rsquo;t realized his full potential yet, and he clearly won&rsquo;t do so for the Lakers.
Verdict: Failure
2016 NBA Draft: Brandon Ingram, Los Angeles Lakers
Ingram is one of the best No. 2 picks in the last 10 drafts. He&rsquo;s a true number one option on a playoff team, a career 18.5 points-per-game scorer and a one-time All-Star. It&rsquo;s debatable that Jaylen Brown (selected third) and/or Jamal Murray (selected seventh) are as good or better players, but both have played alongside more talented teammates throughout their careers.
Ingram has been the best player on the New Orleans Pelicans for a few years now, and we shouldn&rsquo;t take for granted the fact that Ingram led a playoff team this season. Sure, the Lakers didn&rsquo;t cash in on him specifically, but he was part of the package that led to Anthony Davis landing in Los Angeles. So, it worked out for them too.
Verdict: Success
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2017 NBA Draft: Lonzo Ball, Los Angeles Lakers
The Lakers picked second overall again in 2017. They weren&rsquo;t as successful this time around. First, there&rsquo;s Jayson Tatum to consider. Tatum was selected third and is the best player in the 2017 draft class. Being selected by the Lakers wouldn&rsquo;t have changed that, and that should be enough. But there&rsquo;s also Ball&rsquo;s rough shooting mechanics to consider. Sure, he&rsquo;s grown into a good shooter, but the Lakers didn&rsquo;t benefit from that. It&rsquo;s hard to categorize Ball&rsquo;s selection as an outright failure because like Ingram, he helped facilitate Davis to the Lakers. Still, it's tough to classify his selection a success.
Verdict: Push
2018 NBA Draft: Marvin Bagley III, Sacramento Kings
Bagley might be the worst second pick in the last 10 years. The 2018 NBA Draft will forever be remembered as the Luka Doncic class. The Kings could have drafted Doncic, as he was still on the board, but they chose to go with Bagley instead. Bagley isn&rsquo;t even on the Kings any longer, and his time in Sacramento was not memorable.
Bagley is a sub-par defender and three-point shooter. He&rsquo;s scored the ball at a decent pace, averaging 19.5 points per-36 minutes, but he&rsquo;s never earned a big enough role to demonstrate what he can really do, and he&rsquo;s exclusively been on losing teams. Comparatively, Doncic and Trae Young (selected No. 5 in 2018) have turned their franchises around.
Verdict: Failure
2019 NBA Draft: Ja Morant, Memphis Grizzlies
Ingram was the best second pick in the last 10 years, until 2019. Morant stole that made-up accolade almost immediately in his rookie season. The thing is, the 2019 NBA Draft was supposed to be all about Zion Williamson. However, unlike Williamson, Morant has backed up all the hype and then some. So, while Williamson has dealt with injuries for much of his young career, Morant has brazenly become the face of his draft class.
Morant is drawing comparisons to numerous superstars, and he was named to the 2021-22 All-NBA Second Team. No one selected after him comes close to making the Grizzlies think twice about their decision.
Verdict: HUGE success
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2020 NBA Draft: James Wiseman, Golden State Warriors
Unlike his brother Lonzo, LaMelo Ball was deserving of the second pick in 2020. Instead, the Golden State Warriors went with James Wiseman, though the logic behind the pick is clear, even in retrospect. The Warriors already had two All-NBA guards. The thing is, Jordan Poole looks pretty good alongside Steph Curry and Klay Thompson, doesn&rsquo;t he? So, it&rsquo;s feasible to assume that Ball would have fit too.
After two seasons, Ball is a significantly better player, but he&rsquo;s also had plenty of opportunity to demonstrate that fact. Wiseman has had terrible health-related luck. He played in 39 of the Warriors' first 53 games in 2020-21, but he tore his meniscus in Golden State&rsquo;s 53rd&nbsp;game of the season and hasn&rsquo;t been seen since. Wiseman could still be a serious contributor, as his per-36 numbers were impressive for a rookie (19.3 points, 9.7 rebounds, 1.6 blocks and 1.1 assists on .542/.316/.628 shooting). This is one we&rsquo;ll have to continue monitoring.
Verdict: Unclear
2021 NBA Draft: Jalen Green, Houston Rockets
Basing the success of a pick on only a rookie season is tough. Green posted an impressive rookie campaign, but his defensive deficiencies were clear. That&rsquo;s an understandable flaw for a rookie. Green was the assumed second-best player in the class. Having the luxury of hindsight, we now know that Scottie Barnes (selected fourth) and Evan Mobley (selected third) translated to the NBA incredibly well. But wing scorers have a tougher time making the jump, as they must shoot deeper three-pointers and compete against far more athletic competition. Green&rsquo;s floor may be lower than that of Barnes and Mobley, but I'd argue that his ceiling is still higher. Let&rsquo;s give him a little more time.
Verdict: Unclear&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp;
In the last 10 drafts, the second overall pick has clearly been one of the best players in the draft class just three times (2013, 2016 and 2019).&nbsp;
A deeper examination of No. 2 overall picks reveals a limited number of franchise-altering talents. For every Kevin Durant, Jason Kidd, Gary Payton, Earl Monroe and Bill Russell, there are a number of players who didn't live up to expectations. Sometimes, there isn't a generational player on the board; other times, the team picking No. 2 overall just overthinks it or goes in the wrong direction. Either way, No. 2 hasn&rsquo;t produced as many all-time greats as you might expect, but there have been quite a few significant contributors.
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Oklahoma City will pick No. 2 in the 2022 draft. A look back at the last 10 drafts reveals that there are no guarantees for No. 2 picks.

Examining the success of teams selecting No. 2 in the NBA Draft

MIAMI (AP) &mdash; Erik Spoelstra didn&rsquo;t even have to finish the sentence. The Miami Heat coach was speaking in the locker room after a season-extending win in Boston, players and staff standing around him in a semicircle.
&ldquo;There&rsquo;s no two better words,&rdquo; Spoelstra said.
&ldquo;Game 7,&rdquo; about a half-dozen people responded, in unison.
Game 7, for a berth in the NBA Finals. Either the Heat or the Boston Celtics will become Eastern Conference champions on Sunday night, when they&rsquo;ll finally finish their series and see which club will face the Golden State Warriors in the title round.
It&rsquo;ll be the second Game 7 between the teams; the other was in 2012, when the Heat topped the Celtics 101-88 to win that year&rsquo;s East title.
&ldquo;Look, we&rsquo;re here,&rdquo; Spoelstra said after Miami fended off elimination with a <a href="https://apnews.com/article/miami-heat-boston-celtics-nba-mlb-sports-e63d7424bb2a61e590b6e1a544c32f88">111-103 win in Boston</a> on Friday night, behind a 47-point, nine-rebound, eight-assist, four-steal effort from Jimmy Butler. &ldquo;This is the way it should be with these two teams. It should have gone seven games.&rdquo;
Miami has the home-court advantage for the finale, though home court has meant nothing in this series. The Heat went 2-1 in Boston, the Celtics have gone 2-1 in Miami so far with the two wins coming by a combined 38 points and Boston&rsquo;s 6-2 road record is the best of any teams in this season&rsquo;s playoffs.
And that has the Celtics brimming with confidence, even though road teams are 34-110 all-time &mdash; a winning percentage of .236 &mdash; in Game 7s.
&ldquo;Scale of 1 to 10? Ten. I mean, it shouldn&rsquo;t be any less than that, right?&rdquo; Celtics forward Jayson Tatum said when asked how certain he is that Boston can win the series on Miami&rsquo;s floor. &ldquo;You know, it&rsquo;s the last game. That&rsquo;s what it&rsquo;s all about.&rdquo;
Injuries have been one of the major storylines of the series, and that remains the case Sunday.
Butler has been dealing with knee issues and twisted an ankle late in Game 6 though still came through with arguably the best game of his career. Kyle Lowry and Max Strus &mdash; who had big bounce-backs Friday after posting a combined zero points in Game 5 &mdash; still have hamstring concerns. For Boston, Marcus Smart&rsquo;s ankle has been balky, Robert Williams III&rsquo;s knee is an ongoing question and Jaylen Brown banged a knee on a drive in Game 5 though finished the game with no obvious ill effects.
&ldquo;This time of year, there&rsquo;s nobody 100% healthy, both sides,&rdquo; Miami&rsquo;s P.J. Tucker said. &ldquo;I&rsquo;m sure they got a bunch of guys, too, just trying to figure it out and give what they can. Try to win. That&rsquo;s it. You can&rsquo;t get these days back. It&rsquo;s living in the moment, trying to just do what you can.&rdquo;
The Heat might get one key piece back: Tyler Herro, who has been sidelined for the last three games with a strained groin, is going to try some on-court work Sunday in hopes of playing in Game 7.
&ldquo;For us, it&rsquo;s just another opportunity,&rdquo; Celtics coach Ime Udoka said Saturday. &ldquo;You put yourself in this position, going up 3-2, to have two games to win one. And so, as much as you&rsquo;d love to finish it on your home court, we&rsquo;ve been up and down in the series and due to that it&rsquo;s where it is right now. ... It&rsquo;s just another opportunity and we obviously see the big picture ahead.&rdquo;
The Celtics last went to the NBA Finals in 2010. This is their fifth trip to the East finals since, and Friday&rsquo;s loss made them 0-5 in potential East clinchers over that span.
&ldquo;We&rsquo;ve just got to come out and play, come out and respond,&rdquo; Brown said. &ldquo;Backs are on the wall, Game 7, loser go home. We&rsquo;ve got to come out and find a way to win.&rdquo;
From Miami's perspective, the seeds began being planted for this just moments after Game 5. The <a href="https://apnews.com/article/boston-celtics-miami-heat-nba-sports-gabe-vincent-301bb4ce3cbdc51c2105c1e6f8d8c7df">Celtics had just won in Miami to take a 3-2 series lead,</a> and Spoelstra stepped into a defeated locker room to lay out the objective. He repeated it, over and over.
&ldquo;Bring this thing back on the 29th,&rdquo; Spoelstra kept saying.
The 29th is Sunday.
They brought it back. Game 7 awaits.
&ldquo;There&rsquo;s nothing like a Game 7,&rdquo; Spoelstra said. &ldquo;And I&rsquo;m just really excited that we all get to experience that together.&rdquo;
HEAT FINED
The NBA fined Miami $25,000 on Saturday for violating league rules regarding team bench decorum. The league said &ldquo;on multiple occasions, several players stood for an extended period in Miami&rsquo;s team bench area, stood away from the team bench, and were on, encroaching upon or entering the playing court during live game action&rdquo; during Game 6 in Boston.
It has been a point of emphasis for the league of late. Dallas was <a href="https://apnews.com/article/golden-state-warriors-dallas-mavericks-nba-sports-stephen-curry-171b1c7a09da7d977562ad6162c49102">fined a total of $175,000</a> for three similar infractions.
POWER OF 3
No opposing team has ever won three games at Miami in the same playoff series, a trend that Boston will aim to break on Sunday.
This deep into the playoffs &mdash; conference finals or NBA Finals &mdash; such a feat has occurred only 10 times in the last 40 seasons, most recently when Toronto won three times at Golden State in the 2019 NBA Finals.
GAME 7 HISTORY
Miami has two players who have scored at least 30 points in a Game 7. Lowry had 35 for Toronto in a 2016 romp over the Heat, and Victor Oladipo had 30 for Indiana in a 2018 loss to Cleveland. Tatum has averaged 24.0 points in four previous Game 7s, the best of anyone on this Boston roster.
The Celtics are 25-9 in Game 7s, Miami 6-4.
TRENDS
There have been two Game 7s so far in these playoffs, both in the second round: Boston beat Milwaukee by 28 and Dallas won at Phoenix by 33.
Road teams have won three of the last four Game 7s.
CENTURY MARK
Both teams will be playing their 100th games of the season. Miami enters 64-35, Boston 62-37.

The Celtics and Heat square off in Game 7 of the Eastern Conference Finals with the winner advancing to the NBA Finals.

Game 7: Heat, Celtics set to finally decide East champion

What happens is the crux of any conversation. Results spur on ideology and conjecture. Wins, losses, box scores and stat lines invite slander and celebration.
Why?&nbsp;
Results are important for measuring goals, gauging success and resetting priorities or strategies. Why those results occur is what I find fascinating.&nbsp;
The 2022 Eastern Conference Finals between the Miami Heat and Boston Celtics have been difficult to parse through, akin to a redux of the 2004 series between the Detroit Pistons and Indiana Pacers. Only four of the players who played 10 minutes per game or more in that series shot 40% or better from the floor.&nbsp;
A series defined by restrained offense and amplified defense is rooted in the why. Yes, both the Heat and Celtics have exchanged slogging moments. Turnovers have been in abundance. There have been many free throws, as the physicality is ratcheted up to the 10th degree.
The Heat&rsquo;s offense is predicated on movement, screening, handoffs and maximizing their pressure points through shooting gravity to open up looks with their collective passing and intuitive play. Miami was 14th in the league in three-point attempts per game, but first in three-point percentage (37.9%). What made them more impressive was how those shots got off.&nbsp;
The Heat are chock-full of movement shooters with Max Strus, Duncan Robinson, Tyler Herro, Gabe Vincent and Kyle Lowry all capable of hitting shots off of a variety of movements and even self-created with their handles to varying degrees. Miami shot 42.9% from deep in Game 6, a far cry from the 29.2% (52/178) over the previous five games. Jimmy Butler hit four shots from distance after only hitting two all series. Tough shots fell in volume.&nbsp;
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To equate Miami&rsquo;s victory and invigorated offense strictly to shot variance would be unfair. Miami has thrived on those tough threes off movement or pull-ups all season, but they haven&rsquo;t hit the same. It&rsquo;s difficult to project another game like last night for Miami&rsquo;s shot-making, although one game throws sample size to the wind. Again, the why is so crucial here.&nbsp;
Miami&rsquo;s offense has been stuck in the mud much of the series as our own Nekias Duncan <a href="https://www.basketballnews.com/stories/the-heat-have-a-bigbig-problem-on-their-hands">recently wrote</a>. Boston&rsquo;s bigs have stifled the Heat in the paint and through their ability to toggle between the paint and perimeter. Stopping shots at the second and third level has been a large reason for Boston&rsquo;s defensive success. Miami,&nbsp; 27th in rim frequency during the regular season per Cleaning the Glass, is dependent on their ability to attack the gaps created by their shooting gravity.&nbsp;
They&rsquo;ve been constricted by their own shot profile at times this series, but mainly due to how Boston has been able shut off the release valves. Most of Miami&rsquo;s aforementioned premier spacing core, particularly the shooters off screens, has struggled throughout the series. We know the shots haven&rsquo;t fallen, but it&rsquo;s not simply a collective slump. Boston&rsquo;s defense as a whole has been swarming, but why have Miami&rsquo;s movement shooters struggled the most?
Through the lens of the Eastern Conference Finals and the league at large, few players epitomize the why quite like Derrick White. The results haven&rsquo;t always been there for White during the playoffs, although the post-baby bump has been real (congrats again to Derrick and his family).&nbsp;
Yet, so often when watching White, whether with the Spurs or Celtics, the why is consistently there. The consistency in process matters so much more than the consistency in production. That sounds counterintuitive, but it&rsquo;s strikingly true in basketball. There&rsquo;s a line in the sand that wavers among the grains, and White often has crossed the line in spite of his production simply due to his persistent process.
White has routinely neutralized Miami&rsquo;s release valves and shut off the water entirely for stretches. It&rsquo;s been like watching a naturally-rich land dry up after a dam is built up stream. That dam is Derrick White, and the Heat have employed any number and variety of players to try to take White out of the picture to free up shooters.
This play from Game 5 stood out.
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Notice the quick flip and pushoff from P.J. Tucker in a screening action that was masked with Oladipo setting up as a second screener. White immediately takes Oladipo, and Horford takes Tucker after Jaylen Brown switches onto Duncan Robinson. Brown navigates the screen well enough for the action to die out, and would you look at that... Derrick White still makes a play on the back side.
Already four games and roughly 10 minutes into the series, the Heat are throwing the kitchen sink at an off-ball chaser to free up their shooters. Whatever it takes to force switches, including some semi-illegal&nbsp; screens. Again, why?
Well, White immediately made his presence felt on Max Strus.
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He always shifts his body, scans the floor constantly, and his slight movements are impeccable. So often, chasers get beat off the ball because of too big a stride or a wrong step. White rarely crosses his feet up, and he can appear choppy at times, but it's because he's always on his toes, minimizing space given and maximizing his margins for error. Even with the majority of hard screens, White is making his recovery plays and finding his way back into the picture.
If he does get beat when running a shooter off the line, he's one of the best in the league with backtaps and strips.
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Press up that hard on a shooter, and the opposing team will try to use that against you as a pressure point. Lo and behold, Erik Spoelstra dialed up just that, using Duncan Robinson as a screener with White stapled to him, hoping to cause an error on the perimeter.
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White shoots that gap absurdly well. Not just well, like Julius Peppers is smiling somewhere watching that. White dips his shoulder back around Bam Adebayo's screen and is back in front of Herro by the free throw line. It's a ridiculous possession.
To say Max Strus hasn't had a fun series would be an understatement. Watch the way White starts to angle himself, immediately prepping to lock and trail as soon as he knew the movement was en route.
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White seemingly always has at least one hand on the man he's trailing, making it that much harder to gain separation.&nbsp;
This play is a pinnacle "What else am I supposed to do?" moment. Strus hits White with a swim move, sends him careening into the Tucker screen, and Tucker thuds White. So clearly, Strus should be open, right? Right?
Once again, White comes flying around the screen and reattaches to Strus' hip without being overly physical or fouling, funneling him into the looming Horford.
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That consistency has been unreal. While White isn&rsquo;t necessarily the player finishing possessions defensively (although he still forces his fair share of turnovers), the quietness is what stands out.&nbsp;
White&rsquo;s giving his best Darrelle Revis impression, shutting off options, isolated against the best deep threats in the game. You see Jimmy Butler struggling to find an opening, wading in the mid-range, but the why? Max Strus can&rsquo;t get separation. White&rsquo;s been glued to Duncan Robinson. Gabe Vincent is always seeing a rear contest on pull-up twos. Nothing is coming easy for Miami.&nbsp;
Derrick White has put on a masterclass of screen shedding and route mirroring. His off-ball defense and ability to make things difficult always&nbsp;is a large reason for why Nekias Duncan, Jackson Frank and I had <a href="https://www.basketballnews.com/stories/defensive-awards-and-a-celebration-of-defense" target="_blank" rel="noopener">White making an All-Defense team</a>. It's not hyperbole to say that White is among the most consistent defensive players in basketball, something that tends to go underappreciated. Regardless of whether or not the Celtics win Game 7 tomorrow and make their first NBA Finals since 2010, Derrick White's consistent ability to make things difficult deserves shine.

Derrick White has put on a defensive masterclass during the Conference Finals, shutting down Miami's shooters.

Derrick White: Eliminating release valves and shutting off the water

As a viewer who actually enjoys watching basketball &mdash; and especially playoff basketball &mdash; I get miffed when social media brands with influence post like this:
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-theme="dark">
Biggest lead each game this series: Game 1: Heat by 20 Game 2: Celtics by 34 Game 3: Heat by 26 Game 4: Celtics by 32 Game 5: Celtics by 23 This series sucks. <a href="https://t.co/Ul80OhALE3">pic.twitter.com/Ul80OhALE3</a>
&mdash; StatMuse (@statmuse) <a href="https://twitter.com/statmuse/status/1529659726438404096?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">May 26, 2022</a></blockquote>

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I recognize that StatMuse isn't a traditional news outlet and that its primary purpose is to, well, let's call it "generate discussion." However, to say "this series sucks" is beyond simplistic and standoffish &mdash; I would even argue it's untrue.
The Eastern Conference Finals' games have not been particularly close on the scoreboard. It might be an acquired taste for NBA fans who want to see a spectacle at the end of a game instead of during the middle quarters. But the Boston Celtics and Miami Heat have absolutely slugged it out in a 3-2 battle in the trenches. It's created one of the more bizarre series we've seen, fully loaded with lockdown defense and herky-jerky offense.
The numbers this series is spitting out are also, quite frankly, unreal. I'd like to round some up for you to give you an impression of the bizarre, trippy, straight-up mystifying nature of these past five games.
Let's start with last night, courtesy of the Miami Herald's David Wilson:
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-theme="dark">
The Heat missed 38 three-pointers tonight, the second most in a single playoff game in NBA history.
&mdash; David Wilson (@DBWilson2) <a href="https://twitter.com/DBWilson2/status/1529659717026566144?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">May 26, 2022</a></blockquote>

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The Heat, almost literally, could not buy a perimeter bucket on Wednesday. They shot 7-of-45 from beyond the arc. That 15.6% clip is the fourth-worst of this postseason, but none of the three ahead surpassed 40 attempts in the game. In fact, only twice in the regular season (Dallas on March 9 and Boston on Dec. 29) did a team shoot worse on over 40 attempts.
Doubly-in fact, only two other postseason games have ever seen a team shoot under 20% on at least 40 three-point attempts:&nbsp;
<ul>
<li>May 28, 2018: The Houston Rockets went 7-for-44 (15.9%) in one of the most infamous Game 7 meltdowns in playoff history, losing 101-92 to the Golden State Warriors in the Western Conference Finals.</li>
<li>Aug, 29, 2020: The Oklahoma City Thunder shot 7-for-46 (15.2%) and lost Game 5 to the Rockets in the first round.</li>
</ul>
It was a rough night, led by the backcourt of Kyle Lowry and Max Strus.
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Kyle Lowry and Max Strus went a combined 0-15 in Game 5. According to <a href="https://twitter.com/EliasSports?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@EliasSports</a>, that's the worst 0-fer for a starting backcourt in playoff game since starters were officially tracked in 1970-71. <a href="https://t.co/PiGKhQQAA3">pic.twitter.com/PiGKhQQAA3</a>
&mdash; ESPN Stats &amp; Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) <a href="https://twitter.com/ESPNStatsInfo/status/1529661050441834497?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">May 26, 2022</a></blockquote>

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So, this is just an ugly series where the Heat are missing shots, right?
Wrong!
Both the Celtics and Heat have fortified the perimeter. Miami is attempting 12.8 "wide open" perimeter shots per game, categorized as an attempt when the closest defender is at least 6 feet from the shooter. It's even lower for Boston at just 10.4 attempts per game. Both teams are actually shooting fairly well when they find these looks, with the Celtics hitting at a 40.4% clip and the Heat at 37.5%. They just have scarcely found these chances.
The table below compares how made wide-open shots both teams found at different segments of the season, plus the percentage of their total three-point attempts that were wide open (scroll right for full table):
<table style="border-collapse: collapse; width: 100%;" border="1">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="width: 31.490698433420366%;">Season Segment</td>
<td>BOS wide-open 3PA/game</td>
<td>BOS wide-open 3PA/total 3PA</td>
<td>MIA wide-open 3PA/game</td>
<td style="width: 15.745349216710183%;">MIA wide-open 3PA/total 3PA</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 31.490698433420366%;">Regular Season</td>
<td>16.5</td>
<td>43.8%</td>
<td>13.5</td>
<td style="width: 15.745349216710183%;">37.7%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 31.490698433420366%;">First Round</td>
<td>16.5</td>
<td>47.8%</td>
<td>14.2</td>
<td style="width: 15.745349216710183%;">36.9%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 31.490698433420366%;">Second Round</td>
<td>20.0</td>
<td>47.9%</td>
<td>13.2</td>
<td style="width: 15.745349216710183%;">41.4%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 31.490698433420366%;">Conference Finals</td>
<td>10.4</td>
<td>30.1%</td>
<td>12.8</td>
<td style="width: 15.745349216710183%;">35.9%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
Look at that drop-off for Boston! After the Brooklyn Nets and Milwaukee Bucks effectively dared the Celtics' complementary players to knock down threes, the Heat haven't given them breathing room. Meanwhile, Boston has only made life more difficult for a Miami offense that already struggled to create open looks. It's like watching two snakes try to squeeze the life out of each other.
Circling back to Wednesday night, only 14 of Miami's 45 three-ball attempts were categorized as wide open. The Heat actually went 5-for-14 for a half-decent 35.7% clip on those shots... which means they were 2-for-31 (6.5%) on shots with some level of contest. I just shivered.
Let's stay with Game 5:
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Half-court offense at the 6:22 mark, per <a href="https://twitter.com/cleantheglass?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@cleantheglass</a> Miami: 58.8 ORTG Boston: 50.0
&mdash; Nekias (Nuh-KY-us) Duncan (@NekiasNBA) <a href="https://twitter.com/NekiasNBA/status/1529635748621713410?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">May 26, 2022</a></blockquote>

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When Nekias tweeted this, Jayson Tatum had just fouled Jimmy Butler and the Heat led 27-22. That already is brutal, and these half-court Offensive Ratings are just over half of the 95.8 league average of the playoffs.&nbsp;
Boston figured something out as the game went on and finished Game 5 averaging 92.5 points per 100 half-court possessions. Miami's half-court ORTG: 58.8!?! You don't need me to tell you that's easily the worst rating of the postseason, with the Heat's Game 4 (65.7) not far behind. Miami's half-court offense is in a... state.
But let's not turn on the Heat too much (is that a pun and a double meaning in one sentence?). Miami racked up 19 steals in Game 3, the most by any team in a playoff game since the Bucks swiped 20 in 2015 and the second-most since 2004-05. According to Cleaning the Glass, Boston's 25.5% turnover rate in that contest is the most from the franchise in any game &mdash; regular season or playoffs &mdash; since 2014.
The Heat have three players with a steal rate above 2.0% this postseason, per Cleaning the Glass: Victor Oladipo (2.7%), Butler (2.4%) and Caleb Martin (2.1%). Oladipo and Butler are both averaging 1.8 steals per game in the conference finals, while Lowry (1.3) and PJ Tucker (1.2) aren't far behind. And while Gabe Vincent hasn't gotten the steals to match, his 3.2 deflections per game tie the second-best average in the series behind only Butler.&nbsp;
Miami relies on swarms of event creation to generate turnovers and support its sporadic offense. Boston wants to wear the Heat down in the half-court and take their confidence away.
Embrace the defensive warfare!
It may not look like your typical playoff thriller, but as the series record shows, an NBA Finals berth is still very much in play for both franchises.
THE OUTLIERS (a.k.a. other random interesting numbers I found in the void):
<ul>
<li>While I was reseraching the wide-open threes, I checked the other two conference finalists as well. The Warriors are in line with the Celtics and Heat, limited to just 11.0 attempts per game against the Mavericks. But Dallas... man. They're free to fire away, to the tune of a whopping 25.3 wide-open triples per game. You have to wonder what happens as they keep falling.</li>
<li>Staying on the subject of playoff shooting, here's a noteworthy graphic from SIS Hoops:</li>
</ul>
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These conference finals have been defined by variance. Large swings in either direction have led to massive leads from each team in both series. How much of this can be attributed to the rise in three point attempts, as illustrated here? <a href="https://t.co/WCfQcar0HR">pic.twitter.com/WCfQcar0HR</a>
&mdash; SIS Hoops (@SIS_Hoops) <a href="https://twitter.com/SIS_Hoops/status/1529494752206303233?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">May 25, 2022</a></blockquote>

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<ul>
<li>That's exactly right, Slam Studios! Margin of victory doesn't define the playoffs.</li>
</ul>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-theme="dark">
Reminder that everyone&rsquo;s most beloved playoff series was a snooze fest until Game 7: Game 1 &ndash; GSW by 15 Game 2 &ndash; GSW by 33 Game 3 &ndash; CLE by 30 Game 4 &ndash; GSW by 11 Game 5 &ndash; CLE by 15 Game 6 &ndash; CLE by 14 Game 7 &ndash; CLE by 4 Are NBA fans doing some revisionist history? 🤔 <a href="https://t.co/MByPIqUuyL">pic.twitter.com/MByPIqUuyL</a>
&mdash; Slam Studios (@slamstudios) <a href="https://twitter.com/slamstudios/status/1529516755219095553?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">May 25, 2022</a></blockquote>

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The Eastern Conference Finals has been a roller coaster, and Ethan Fuller has the numbers to back things up.

NBA Stats Notebook: This wacky Celtics-Heat series — by the numbers

Jayson Tatum scored 31 points and the Boston Celtics took their turn pounding the Miami Heat early, jumping out to a 26-4 lead and cruising to a 102-82 victory that evened the Eastern Conference finals at two games apiece.
Miami missed 15 of its first 16 shots in the second straight game that was all but over after 12 minutes. The Heat led 39-18 after the first quarter of Game 3 of this bizarre series in which no game has been close down the stretch.
Game 5 is Wednesday in Miami.
Payton Pritchard had 14 points for the Celtics. Derrick White added 13 points, eight rebounds and six assists, and Robert Williams finished with 12 points and nine rebounds.
The Celtics led by 27 points in the second quarter and stretched their advantage to 32 in the third. Each game in this series has featured a lead of at least 20 points.
Victor Oladipo led the Heat with 23 points. Miami&rsquo;s starting five of All-Star Jimmy Butler (six points), Kyle Lowry (three points), P.J. Tucker (no points), Max Strus (no points) and Bam Adebayo (nine points) were a combined 7 of 36 shooting. They all sat out the fourth quarter.
And the Celtics stymied the Heat without Defensive Player of the Year Marcus Smart, who sat with a sprained right ankle he suffered in the second half of Game 3.
The Heat were without Tyler Herro, who suffered a groin injury late in Game 3.
Butler was in the starting lineup after missing the second half of Game 3 with swelling in his right knee. Lowry (strained left hamstring), Strus (strained hamstring) and Tucker (left knee irritation) all tested their injuries pregame before being cleared to go.
Boston&rsquo;s Williams returned after missing a game with soreness in his surgically repaired left knee.
Even with their banged-up roster, the Celtics enjoyed their fastest start of the series. Starting in place of Smart, White scored the game&rsquo;s first seven points as Boston took an 8-0 lead.
It quickly grew to 18-1, with Miami misfiring on its first 14 shots. The Heat didn&rsquo;t get their first points until Adebayo&rsquo;s free throw at the 7:56 mark. Miami made its first field goal at 3:22, a 3-pointer by Oladipo, and finished the quarter 3 for 20.
The Celtics took a 29-11 lead into the second quarter and led 57-33 at the half.
TIP-INS
Heat: Shot 33% (30 of 90). ... Finished with 64 bench points. ... Miami had one point in the first eight minutes, the lowest total by any team in a playoff game in the last quarter-century, according to ESPN Stats &amp; Info.
Celtics: Outrebounded Miami 20-8 in the first quarter. ... Several current and former New England Patriots were in the crowd, including Devin and Jason McCourty, Malcolm Butler and Damien Harris.

Jayson Tatum scored 31 points and the Celtics took their turn pounding the Heat early, jumping out to a 26-4 lead and cruised.

Celtics torch Heat early, even series with 102-82 blowout

It is common for the players who score the most points to get the most praise. They get the credit on SportsCenter and are viewed as the stars of the night. But there is another kind of player who typically doesn't get the credit they deserve, whose importance to the team is not often illuminated.
Enter Victor Oladipo.
In Game 3 of the Eastern Conference Finals against the Boston Celtics on Saturday night, Oladipo's 5 points didn't make the ESPN highlight reel or pop out in the box score. His stat line wasn&rsquo;t highlighted on the NBA TV recap.
After being bumped out of the rotation in the first half in favor of Caleb Martin and Duncan Robinson, Oladipo could have pouted and had an attitude. This is something that happens at every level: a player doesn&rsquo;t play in the first half and mentally checks out. Sometimes, they are visibily disgruntled. You may be able to see it during halftime warm-ups or in his demeanor on the bench.&nbsp;
Oladipo didn&rsquo;t do any of that. He stayed locked in and was ready and prepared if his number happened to be called. Then, it happened. Jimmy Butler went down and could not return to the game in the second half. Butler has been carrying the team throughout the series; he is who the offense runs through, who the team relies on every trip down the court in some capacity. When he couldn't return due to a knee injury, Oladipo&rsquo;s number was called and he was ready.
In just 20 minutes, Oladipo had 4 steals (twice as many as the Celtics had as team for the entire game) and 8 pass deflections (one more than the Celtics). After the game, PJ Tucker raved about Oladipo's play.
&ldquo;It&rsquo;s usually his offense everybody talks about,&rdquo; Tucker said. &ldquo;He comes in with a spark. But his lateral slides and quickness were unbelievable. I told him tonight, 'That was some of the best lateral foot speed I&rsquo;ve seen anybody have.' Jaylen Brown, when he gets going &mdash; especially right &mdash; he's tough to get back in front of. For Vic to square him up was unreal. He gave us a spark.
&ldquo;We talked about it at the half, knowing he was about to start the half and play. To not play at all and then step in and do what he did in the second half, that level of professionalism is few and far between.&rdquo;
Former NBA guard Jamal Crawford tweeted: &ldquo;Vic Oladipo&rsquo;s stats won&rsquo;t justify the game he actually played. They don&rsquo;t win this game without him.&rdquo;
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Vic Oladipo&rsquo;s stats won&rsquo;t justify the game he actually played. They don&rsquo;t win this game without him.
&mdash; 🏁 Jamal Crawford (@JCrossover) <a href="https://twitter.com/JCrossover/status/1528214518660157440?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">May 22, 2022</a></blockquote>

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&ldquo;Everything about it, it speaks to his competitive character,&rdquo; Heat head coach Erik Spoelstra said of Oladipo. &ldquo;That was not easy. We went with a slightly different rotation because Kyle [Lowry] came back. That is going to force some changes throughout the rotation, so he didn&rsquo;t play in the first half. We&rsquo;ve had so many guys that have had to take on different roles and sacrifice. We say it&rsquo;s always easy to sacrifice when you&rsquo;re not the one doing it, and he&rsquo;s had to sacrifice many times. That wasn&rsquo;t easy. That wasn&rsquo;t necessarily the way we were going to go the first half. Just things were going really well. We just kept going with that. Then, all of a sudden, boom: Jimmy is not going to go in the second half.
"For him to be stable enough and not be frustrated and not be rolling his eyes and like, 'Oh, okay, now I get an opportunity.... he&rsquo;s just steady. Stays the course. He&rsquo;s made himself available, made himself vulnerable through this whole process. He&rsquo;s prepared behind the scenes. His minutes in the second half were so important defensively against their two studs (Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown), and then offensively, he just gave us a facsimile of a lot of the stuff we do with Jimmy. And I mean that as the ultimate compliment.&rdquo;
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This isn&rsquo;t the first time during these playoffs that Oladipo has had to be ready to jump right in and be a determining factor when his number was called. Oladipo was actually outside of Miami's rotation in the first round against the Atlanta Hawks. However, he ended up being one of the key reasons for the Heat's 97-94 win in Game 5, which could have easily gone in the Hawks favor. Oladipo poured in 23 points, 3 assists and 3 steals, while shooting 50% from the floor and 50% from three. After that game, his play was featured in ESPN's highlight reel and his stat line jumped out when looking at the box score.
But again, if he hadn't been ready when his number was called, none of that would have been possible. Time and time again, Oladipo has shown that when given the opportunity, he can produce at a high level and be a game-changing player. Any questions about his past injuries (including a ruptured right quadricep tendon) should be laid to rest as he's proven that he's back in terms of his lateral movement, athleticism, ability to create his own shot, outside shooting and transition defense.
&ldquo;Signing Victor Oladipo [to a veteran-minimum deal] was one of the biggest steals in NBA history for the Miami Heat," said Daniel Abraham, Oladipo&rsquo;s former AAU coach. "To get a former All-Star and All-Defensive Team player still near his prime like that for very little and be able to wait patiently for him to get healthy is the type of move that will likely land them in the NBA Finals! And if you know Vic like I do, you know the level of the dedication and work ethic he has always had, so none of this would surprise you.&ldquo;
Many in the NBA world were ready to write him off into irrelevance after he re-injured his leg in 2020 and got traded twice. In January 2021, Oladipo was traded to the Houston Rockets in the four-team blockbuster deal that also sent James Harden to Brooklyn and Caris LeVert to Indiana. Two months later, the Rockets sent Oladipo to Miami for a first-round pick swap, Avery Bradley and Kelly Olynyk.
But with all that behind him, Oladipo is proving all of his doubters wrong. He is far from finished and he has proven that he's still capable of being an impact player and a X-Factor for his team &mdash; whether it&rsquo;s by solely playing defense on one of the best scorers in the league or stepping in and being one of the game's high scorers himself. Regardless of his role, Oladipo will have the right attitude and energy, even if those opportunities don&rsquo;t present themselves each and every game.
This is the type of player whom any organization would want on their team, and Oladipo should receive plenty of interest from teams when he hits unrestricted free agency this summer.
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Regardless of what the box score showed, Victor Oladipo played a crucial role in the Heat's Game 3 win over the Celtics.

Victor Oladipo staying ready and making the most of every opportunity

Following the Phoenix Suns&rsquo; shocking postseason exit, all eyes are now on Deandre Ayton's free agency.
After the Suns declined to sign Ayton to a five-year, rookie-scale max extension before the 2021-22 season, restricted free agency is now on the horizon for the athletic big man. During the NBA Draft Combine in Chicago, Ayton&rsquo;s agent Bill Duffy discussed Ayton's future on SiriusXM&rsquo;s NBA show.
&ldquo;We&rsquo;re disappointed. We wanted a max contract,&rdquo; Duffy <a href="https://twitter.com/esidery/status/1527772160923619328" target="_blank" rel="noopener">said</a>. &ldquo;He went out and was a solider the whole year, played well, improved his statistics. So, we&rsquo;re proud of him. A lot of guys handle things differently, but he was very mature about it. Things will work out for Deandre. He&rsquo;s a valuable player. There&rsquo;s other teams in the league as well. He&rsquo;s a restricted free agent, so we&rsquo;ll see how this process unfolds.&rdquo;
Ayton averaged 17.3 points, 10.0 rebounds, 1.5 assists and 0.7 blocks on a career-high 65.6% True Shooting percentage during the 2021-22 campaign. Ayton was a key asset for the Suns on both ends of the court, especially around the basket as an easy lob threat and defensive anchor. Ayton has been a key piece for the Suns, but is he worth a max contract? Based on Duffy&rsquo;s comments earlier this week, it sounds like Ayton&rsquo;s camp won&rsquo;t settle for anything less than the max entering free agency.
From the Suns&rsquo; perspective, they saw improvement from the 2018 No. 1 overall pick this season before the team's disappointing postseason showing.
&ldquo;I think he&rsquo;s shown that he&rsquo;s improved each year, helps us on both the defense and the offense,&rdquo; Suns owner Robert Sarver told <a href="http://BasketballNews.com">BasketballNews.com</a> recently about Ayton. &ldquo;I think offensively, you see this year he&rsquo;s taken another good step in terms of his touch and his ability to score around the basket. So, he&rsquo;s been a key part of what we&rsquo;re doing.&rdquo;
Taking all of this into consideration, what if Ayton's days in Phoenix are numbered? Here's a look at the most realistic sign-and-trade destinations for Ayton this summer.
Note: It's important to remember that sign-and-trade deals rarely return the same value as a traditional trade. The Suns have let it be known that they won't simply let an asset like Ayton walk for nothing. If Ayton&rsquo;s time in Phoenix is indeed over, the Suns won&rsquo;t be leaving the relationship empty-handed.
San Antonio Spurs
Spurs receive: Deandre Ayton
Suns receive: Jakob Poeltl, Devin Vassell, Tre Jones
San Antonio is one of the few teams this offseason with secured max-level cap space. All that needs to be done in order to chase Ayton is renounce the restricted rights to Lonnie Walker.
Being at the bottom of the NBA standings is new for the Spurs. After being one of the league's model organizations for over two decades, they have officially hit a playoff drought. San Antonio was hoping for some lottery luck, but now they have to try another plan to bring in a star.
San Antonio&rsquo;s dynamic young duo of Dejounte Murray and Keldon Johnson is so fun to watch, but the they need a third game-changer to take this rebuild back into playoff mode. Ayton would be an ideal solution, mainly because of his excellent two-way fit in the Spurs&rsquo; system. Dropping Ayton into the Spurs&rsquo; player-development program could make some in Phoenix worry about the long-term consequences of this deal.
For Phoenix, cooperating with a long-time rival would hurt. However, if the relationship between team and player becomes fractured, the Suns won&rsquo;t have much of a choice if he finds a max offer on the open market.
The Suns won&rsquo;t let Ayton leave Phoenix unless they receive strong assets in return. The Spurs can actually provide a solid package that helps in the short and long-term.
In this deal, Phoenix could land one of the most underrated big men in the Association as well as two young players who have shown flashes. The Jalen Smith experiment was a disaster for the Suns after taking him No. 10 overall in the 2020 NBA Draft, and Vassell went one pick later. Phoenix can right that wrong while also obtaining an intriguing point guard to develop in Jones.
This feels like a win-win for both sides. San Antonio would have a new Big 3 in Ayton, Murray and Johnson, while the Suns could acquire their new starting center and two pieces to bolster the bench unit.
Charlotte Hornets
Hornets receive: Deandre Ayton
Suns receive: Terry Rozier, PJ Washington and draft compensation
There might not be a team with a more dire offseason need than the Hornets and their hole at center. Charlotte was one of my NBA League Pass teams this season due to their fun offensive pace, but the defense often bordered on disastrous. Montrezl Harrell and Mason Plumlee aren&rsquo;t going to cut it, so it&rsquo;s time for Charlotte to get aggressive.
Given Charlotte&rsquo;s roster, they would have to move some salaries around to make an Ayton chase realistic. Offloading Gordon Hayward&rsquo;s contract is going to be a tough task and they may even have to relinquish one of their top-15 picks to do so, but it would have to happen in order for them to pursue Ayton. Hayward is due $61.6 million over the next two seasons, and Charlotte simply can&rsquo;t afford to keep biting that bullet with restricted free agent Miles Bridges due for a payday and LaMelo Ball&rsquo;s own rookie-scale extension on the horizon. Trading away Hayward and Mason Plumlee would give the Hornets max space.
Landing Ayton is Charlotte's dream scenario. Not only would Ayton continue to get spoon-fed easy looks from an elite point guard, he would help stabilize the Hornets' defense to respectable levels. Thanks to his freakish athleticism, Ayton would be able to cover up a lot of holes around him defensively.
Phoenix would love to pull off a double sign-and-trade to nab Bridges, but that seems unlikely. Instead, this deal allows them to find their long-term answer at point guard post-Chris Paul. While Terry Rozier is a shot-chucker, he has improved as a playmaker in Charlotte. In the short-term, Rozier could step in as the Suns&rsquo; sixth man and provide the exact boost that they need in offensive guard creation. PJ Washington is an interesting add because he could slide right into the small-ball 5 role played previously by Dario Saric.
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Indiana Pacers
Pacers receive: Deandre Ayton
Suns receive: Myles Turner, Chris Duarte, TJ McConnell
What&rsquo;s the next step for Indiana? Long gone are Victor Oladipo, Domantas Sabonis and Caris LeVert. Malcolm Brogdon, Myles Turner and Buddy Hield could be the next Pacers veterans to be shipped out via trade as Indiana fully embraces a rebuild attempt. It&rsquo;s been long overdue for the Pacers to pull the plug on the core that continued to stagnate once the postseason arrived.
A year later, Indiana&rsquo;s future looks much brighter with a talented, new-look core of Tyrese Haliburton, Chris Duarte, Isaiah Jackson and whoever is selected at No. 6 overall.
Ayton couldn't ask for a better pick-and-roll partner than Haliburton. Already making magic happen with CP3, Ayton&rsquo;s rolling ability would help accentuate Haliburton&rsquo;s biggest strengths. Also, Ayton&rsquo;s defensive versatility would be a welcome arrival for a team that nosedived in that category last season.
For Indiana, the price would be hefty. Not only would this trade require a four-year max contract for Ayton, but the Pacers would likely need to ship out a key piece of their young core via sign-and-trade (such as Duarte).
This trade would be a huge win for Phoenix, but it also looks great for the Pacers. The Suns would have a starting center who adds floor-spacing equity and elite rim protection, a capable veteran backup point guard who can spell Paul at times, plus one of the most impactful rookie wings in the Association. Having to include Duarte could leave the Pacers apprehensive, but they are reportedly enamored with adding another explosive piece via the draft, as Jaden Ivey (Purdue), Shaedon Sharpe (Kentucky) and Bennedict Mathurin (Arizona) have all been linked to Indiana early in the pre-draft process.&nbsp;
Detroit Pistons
Pistons receive: Deandre Ayton
Suns receive: Jerami Grant, Isaiah Stewart, Cory Joseph and draft compensation
Another team that has considered making a run at Ayton this offseason is the Pistons, and they can create max space very easily: trading away Kelly Olynyk&rsquo;s contract.
The Pistons struck gold with Cade Cunningham and Saddiq Bey and they are helping usher in a new era in Detroit. Ayton&rsquo;s arrival would be the final piece to the puzzle for a team seemingly pushing their chips in on postseason play as early as 2023.
It would be best for Ayton to land with a capable lead guard who can feed him regularly. Already capable of tallying 20 and 10 most nights, Ayton would be set up for long-term success alongside Cunningham and Bey.
The question is, what would the Pistons need to send Phoenix&rsquo;s way in order for this sign-and-trade to go through? It&rsquo;s going to be a lot, and it would be a blockbuster-type transaction.
Blockbuster indeed, because Grant is now heading back to the Valley in this scenario. If the Suns and Pistons want to cooperate on a Ayton deal, I have to imagine one of Grant or Bey would have to be involved. Stewart is another enticing trade chip because he&rsquo;s shown the versatility to space the floor from three-point range. While he doesn't have the same touch as Ayton, Stewart brings nastiness and a tenacity on both ends of the court that Phoenix would absolutely love.
<img style="display: block; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" src="https://cdn.basketballnews.com/images/story/body/ayton1.jpg" alt="" width="700" height="373" />
Atlanta Hawks
Hawks receive: Deandre Ayton
Suns receive: Clint Capela, Bogdan Bogdanovic
No ifs, ands or buts about it, Trae Young would make Ayton an All-Star next season. What a fun inside-out duo this is to envision. While Atlanta is nowhere close to reaching the necessary cap space to absorb a massive Ayton deal on their own, a sign-and-trade becomes feasible with all of the talent that could fit into the Phoenix roster.
For the Hawks, Ayton represents another foundational building block to place alongside Young for the long-term. John Collins could be the guy, but he&rsquo;s been in trade rumors for the past year with no signs of those slowing down. Onyeka Okongwu could also grow into that role, but the Hawks signing Clint Capela to a long-term extension perhaps signals that they see him more as a piece to the puzzle rather than a true building block.
Ayton would arrive in Atlanta and instantly average around 23 points and 12 rebounds per game. On box-score fit alone, this would be the best landing spot for Ayton thanks to the greatness of Young.
If Phoenix had drafted Luka Doncic rather than Ayton at No. 1 overall in 2018, Phoenix may have considered adding Clint Capela to their frontcourt. Four years later, Capela being re-routed to Phoenix in an Ayton sign-and-trade is a plausible scenario to imagine. Capela would provide similar numbers to Ayton while requiring less of an offensive workload. Meanwhile, Bogdan Bogdanovic might vault to the top the NBA's Sixth Man of the Year leaderboards in the near future. Bogdanovic and Cameron Johnson leading the Suns&rsquo; second unit? That&rsquo;s a filthy thought.
***
None of these trades are perfect, but they do illustrate how challenging it will be for Phoenix to find a home for Ayton while also returning the value they'd love to get back for him. Ultimately, it may be in the Suns' best interest to re-sign Ayton this offseason and trade him at some point down the road when his value isn't so depressed.
Whatever happens, Ayton&rsquo;s name will continue to pop up in rumors throughout the spring and summer until the Suns and Ayton's camp find common ground at the negotiation table. This situation could become awkward and dragged out, which would surely kick the trade rumors into high gear. This isn't the last we'll hear about Ayton and the possibility of him changing teams.
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With Deandre Ayton's future in Phoenix becoming murky, it's time to examine potential destinations for the former No. 1 overall pick.

Examining potential sign-and-trade destinations for Deandre Ayton

Jayson Tatum scored 27 points, Marcus Smart and Jaylen Brown each had 24 and the Boston Celtics dominated the first half to roll past the Miami Heat 127-102 on Thursday night and tie the Eastern Conference finals at a game apiece.
Smart was a rebound shy of a triple-double, after adding 12 assists and nine rebounds.
Grant Williams scored 19 points for Boston, which used a 17-0 run late in the first quarter &mdash; fueled by five 3-pointers in the span of six possessions &mdash; to take control. Payton Pritchard and Al Horford each had 10 for the Celtics.
Jimmy Butler had 29 points in 32 minutes for Miami, which fell to 7-1 at home in these playoffs. Gabe Vincent and Victor Oladipo each scored 14 points, and Tyler Herro added 11 for the Heat.
The Celtics &mdash; now 4-0 in these playoffs in the game immediately following a loss &mdash; made 20 shots from 3-point range to Miami's 10. Game 3 is Saturday in Boston.
And the margin could have been worse: Boston led by as many as 34 points in the fourth, putting this game on the cusp of really good Celtics history and really bad Heat history. The Celtics' record for biggest postseason win ever is 40, the Heat record for biggest postseason loss ever is 36, and those numbers were within reach before a meaningless Miami run over the final moments.
Boston trailed by 10 in the first quarter, then outscored Miami 60-21 over the next 18 minutes &mdash; a 39-point turnaround that wound up leading to a 70-45 halftime lead.
The 25-point halftime lead was the biggest by the Celtics in any road playoff game, topping a 22-point edge at the break at Chicago in 2009.
Brown had 11 points in the first quarter, when the Celtics went 9 for 11 from 3-point range. Tatum then had 17 points in the second and Boston kept pulling away, on a day where everything went the Celtics&rsquo; way. They learned earlier in the day that two starters &mdash; Horford (virus-related issues) and Smart (mid-foot sprain) &mdash; were cleared to play in Game 2 after missing the series opener.
&ldquo;I got to get my rest, got to get my health back, got to watch and see some things and come out and execute in this game," Smart said.
And the good news kept coming well into the night.
Butler did all he could to try and manufacture a comeback, scoring 16 points in the third quarter and getting the Heat within 17. But a 12-2 run late in the quarter by the Celtics restored a 27-point edge. The lead was 96-71 going into the fourth and the outcome was never remotely close to being in question the rest of the way.
Miami didn't even use its starters in the fourth quarter.
TIP-INS
Celtics: Technically, Boston had one other &ldquo;road&rdquo; game with a bigger halftime lead. The Celtics were the designated visitor on Sept. 7, 2020 &mdash; in the bubble at Walt Disney World &mdash; when they led Toronto by 27 at the break. ... With Horford back, Grant Williams returned to his off-the-bench role. ... Tatum got his second foul with 4:14 left in the first, after charging into Butler. The entirety of the 17-0 run came with him on the bench.
Heat: Kyle Lowry (hamstring) sat for the eighth time in the last 10 games. ... It was the first game since Dallas-Atlanta on Feb. 1, 2020 in which both teams had a 10-point lead in the first quarter.... P.J. Tucker had Miami&rsquo;s first five points, all in the game&rsquo;s first 51 seconds. It was his 863rd career game, the first in which he had five points in the first minute. Those were his only points of the night, and he left in the third quarter with a left knee contusion.
25 TWICE
This Boston team is the sixth club in the last 25 years to have two separate games where it led by at least 25 points in Miami in the same season. The Celtics also did it on Nov. 4. The other teams who pulled it off: Milwaukee last season (won NBA title), San Antonio in 2013-14 (won NBA title), Boston in 2007-08 (won NBA title), Toronto (2007-08) and Charlotte (2000-01).
500 AND COUNTING
The Heat announced their 500th consecutive sellout, excluding games affected by the pandemic. Only Dallas (867 and counting), Portland (814 from 1977 through 1995), Boston (662 from 1980 through 1995) and Chicago (610 from 1987 through 2000) have streaks that the NBA counts as being longer.

Jayson Tatum scored 27 points, Marcus Smart and Jaylen Brown each had 24 and the Celtics dominated to roll past the Heat 127-102.

Celtics roll past Heat 127-102, tie East Finals at 1-1

Even as the Boston Celtics led in the first half of Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals, it only felt like a matter of time before the scoreboard would catch up to the Miami Heat offense.&nbsp;
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-theme="dark">
Miami basically has a 105 offensive rating in the half court and the halftime show was almost entirely about offensive concerns.
&mdash; Nekias (Nuh-KY-us) Duncan (@NekiasNBA) <a href="https://twitter.com/NekiasNBA/status/1526743543942873088?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">May 18, 2022</a></blockquote>

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Then, the Heat exploded in the second half, opening on a 22-2 run and never looking back. They steamrolled the Celtics on both ends and Jimmy Butler took over en route to 41 points. Miami finished with an impressive Offensive Rating of 112.2 on half-court possessions, per Cleaning the Glass. That ranks in the 88th percentile of playoff games this season; according to our Nekias Duncan, the league average is 95.6 points per 100 possessions.&nbsp;
The Heat's success transcends their normal half-court production. Even with the Game 1 win, Miami is still averaging just 95.0 half-court points per 100 possessions in the playoffs, and the team's regular season rating was similarly low (97.6). And even taking the scope back to a base level &mdash; how many people expected the Heat to drop 118 points in the first game against one of the league's best defenses?
Sure, the Celtics were missing two key cogs in Marcus Smart and Al Horford, but it was still an impressive effort. It also exposed the dilemma Boston has with Payton Pritchard.
The second-year guard is the Celtics' best shooter in a rotation that sometimes needs a perimeter lifeline, and simultaneously, their worst defender in a scheme that can't afford porous perimeter defense.&nbsp;
Nekias was all over this in his pre-series scouting report and had a noteworthy stat after Game 1:
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-theme="dark">
Pritchard was targeted 16 times in PnR tonight, and the Heat scored well over 1.2 points per possession on those trips 😵&zwj;💫<a href="https://t.co/Sh3NLiMvTK">https://t.co/Sh3NLiMvTK</a> <a href="https://t.co/eTxYIQKXDI">pic.twitter.com/eTxYIQKXDI</a>
&mdash; Nekias (Nuh-KY-us) Duncan (@NekiasNBA) <a href="https://twitter.com/NekiasNBA/status/1526772020217798656?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">May 18, 2022</a></blockquote>

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The Heat went after Pritchard, who logged his postseason high with 30 minutes in the loss. They put him through the blender on screens and forced him to play chaser. At 6-foot-1 with a 6-foot-4 wingspan, Pritchard just doesn't have enough length to overcome falling into recovery mode.
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Prtichard also just struggles fighting through screens despite being fairly built for his size (listed around 200 pounds). That fourth clip is telling; he's pretty powerless against Butler, and it leads to an easy Max Strus three-pointer. Pritchard and Jaylen Brown could have communicated better on that play and had Brown chase after Strus, but it seems the job was supposed to be Pritchard's.&nbsp;
Miami then attacked Pritchard on the ball during its second-half surge.&nbsp;
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When Butler found 1-on-1 chances against Pritchard, the Heat superstar was able to get into his bag with relative ease. In the second clip, Pritchard stays up tight against Butler, and it looks like solid defense. But even that effort appears meaningless. Butler made one basic spin move, didn't need to counter and rose high above the contest for a confident make.&nbsp;
This isn't to say Pritchard is the primary reason for Boston's loss by any means. But he is going to be a matchup Miami hunts throughout this series. The Heat have players who are unbothered by his defense (Butler, Tyler Herro and Victor Oladipo) and players who can wreak havoc against him away from the ball (Strus, Gabe Vincent).&nbsp;
The Celtics are going to be challenged when Pritchard is defending. Their trade-off is that he is, in many cases, their spark and offensive savior from long range. Through the postseason, opponents have dared complementary players like Grant Williams, Derrick White, Horford and Smart to shoot as defenses load up on Jayson Tatum and Brown. The one supporting cast member they cannot forget about is Pritchard.
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The 24-year-old has blossomed into one of the most efficient perimeter shooters in the entire NBA. Among all postseason players with at least 20 pull-up shot attempts, Pritchard ranks fourth with a 58.3% Effective Field Goal percentage. He ranked eighth among 171 players with at least 100 pull-up attempts in the regular season at 53.6%. Then, he turned around and made 42.8% of his catch-and-shoot threes in the regular season and finished 13th in overall three-point percentage (41.2%).
Pritchard has limitless range and enduring confidence. His threes came from 26 feet from the basket on average, according to The BBall Index, putting him in the 82nd percentile at his position. Aside from maybe Tatum, Pritchard is the only Celtic who could hoist up deep triples without inciting grimaces from fans.
His overall offensive game, though, is a bit more complicated.&nbsp;
Pritchard is a rock-solid passer. He's dished out 23 assists against just 3 turnovers in the playoffs so far; that 7.67 assist-to-turnover-ratio is the best among anyone who has been in at least eight playoff games. When he drives to the basket, he's able to make the right kick-out plays. The problem is his drives aren't threatening to opposing defenses.&nbsp;
Second Spectrum says that 221 players drove to the basket at least 150 times in the regular season. Pritchard passed out of his drives a whopping 60.7% of the time &mdash; the fourth-most of any such player. When he did attempt a shot, it didn't go so well; his 37.7% field goal percentage tied for 16th-worst. In his 173 regular-season drives, he scored 45 points. That 26.0% rate is, again, the fourth-lowest of the 221 qualifying players.
Pritchard has scarcely needed to drive the ball for most of the postseason, and had actually gone 4-for-4 on driving shots in the first two rounds. Then, we got to the conference finals, where he went 1-for-4 in Game 1.
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The burst just isn't there for Pritchard, who pounds the ball hard and tries to lower his shoulder without much success. Caleb Martin is a solid defender who walled Pritchard up in the first clip. Herro wasn't fazed in the second clip, and on an empty-corner drive, Bam Adebayo has plenty of time to help. Without a strong first step, Pritchard can't use his shooting threat to successfully attack closeouts. He doesn't get the head start that others, even Williams and White, receive.&nbsp;
Speaking of White &mdash; he'll be out for Game 2. Smart's availability is still up in the air as of this writing. That's possibly two dynamic attacking guards that the Celtics won't have in a critical second game, which means even more responsibility falls on Pritchard's shoulders.
Boston needs Payton Pritchard in its rotation. The perimeter prowess and reliable passing help keep a volatile offense from falling off the rails. But Ime Udoka and the Celtics' coaching staff have to figure out how to keep Miami away from matchup-hunting Pritchard and keep him in advantageous offensive positions. He'll be an X-factor in Game 2 and a swing player for the remainder of this series.
THE OUTLIERS (a.k.a. other random interesting numbers I found in the void):
<ul>
<li>As I mentioned, Pritchard is fourth among postseason players in pull-up effective field goal percentage. Jordan Clarkson (60.9%) is first and Chris Paul (60.4%) is second, though both have been eliminated. But third place, at 59.3%, might surprise you: Marcus Smart.</li>
<li>We're in draft season!!! It's one of my favorite times of the year. Let's get excited. Here's an interesting graph of the careers of various draft picks throughout much of NBA history. There's more in the thread:</li>
</ul>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-theme="dark">
1/ Since 1978, 2063 players were drafted (*Early draft selected more than 200 players) But, 401 draftee couldn't play a single game in NBA <a href="https://t.co/rXttO2xYRH">pic.twitter.com/rXttO2xYRH</a>
&mdash; TheNext23 (@TNext23) <a href="https://twitter.com/TNext23/status/1526959550624301056?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">May 18, 2022</a></blockquote>

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<ul>
<li>SIS Hoops just keeps on keepin' on with its sweet graphics. This one's interesting because it crosses over several different player archetypes:</li>
</ul>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-theme="dark">
What can we learn from identifying who takes open shots most often in this year&rsquo;s playoffs? A combination of secondary creators, play finishers, and star initiators lead the way: <a href="https://t.co/U3LEd0LvKq">pic.twitter.com/U3LEd0LvKq</a>
&mdash; SIS Hoops (@SIS_Hoops) <a href="https://twitter.com/SIS_Hoops/status/1526986648499912704?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">May 18, 2022</a></blockquote>

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Payton Pritchard was a defensive target for the Heat in Game 1, but if the Celtics hope to advance, they need his long-range shooting.

NBA Stats Notebook: The Celtics and the Payton Pritchard conundrum

In a raucous Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals, the Miami Heat walked away with the first tally struck in the win column of the best-of-seven series.
Boston opened up shooting the lights out, taking a 62-54 halftime lead. Jayson Tatum was firing on all cylinders. Robert Williams III was cultivating a no-fly zone with his verticality. Derrick White had Max Strus running circles trying to get open.
Coming out of the locker room for the second half, it was a different story. The Heat cracked off a 22-2 run to start the third quarter. Butler finished the game with 41 points, and his physical drives battered the Celtics, particularly with Payton Pritchard seeing the court as much as he did due to Marcus Smart's injury. Butler's prowess is the main story last night, but as you can hear multiple times a week on The Dunker Spot&nbsp;(<a href="https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/young-man-the-three/id1547857052?i=1000561786139" target="_blank" rel="noopener">They just had JJ Redick on, go listen!</a>), good offenses require multiple pressure points &mdash; especially against a defense as good as Boston's.
Tyler Herro had it going off the bench last night and was a bastion for Miami's first-half offense. Victor Oladipo crafted some solid looks out of ball screens, but the finishing wasn't there.
And then, there was Gabe Vincent, who was exceptional in finding his groove in the first half as a tough shot-maker in pick-and-roll situations and off of screens. He also found his teammates well as a second-side operator in the offense.
Vincent finished with a +23 Tuesday night, second in the game only to Butler (+25), and while single-game plus-minus is a finicky metric at times, it was indicative of Miami's play. The best minutes the Heat put forth were with the duo on-court and working in tandem. After a stellar regular season that saw Vincent start 27 games, he struggled a great deal across the first two series from the floor, shooting 27.7% from three and registering a 49.5% True Shooting percentage; a far cry from his regular-season play.
17 points, 3 assists and gritty defense made for a grand return to form for Vincent in the series opener, and a return greatly needed for a Heat team still missing Kyle Lowry.
Vincent's first basket encapsulated much of what was essential in his Game 1; extremely tough and well-defended, and Butler screening (more on that later).
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Ripping off a quick double drag with Butler rolling and PJ Tucker popping, Vincent gets a step or two on Jaylen Brown due to a crunching Tucker screen. Robert Williams III is lurking, already having rejected a similar play from Vincent in an empty side pick-and-roll with Tucker earlier in the first quarter.
Vincent goes up and Williams III magnetizes to the ball, but Vincent adjusts mid-air and gets a remarkable high-glass finish to fall.
With his only second-quarter shot attempt midway through the frame, Gabe hit a relocation three to draw Miami back within single digits.
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Shout out to Caleb Martin for the impromptu screen and calling for Vincent to move and open himself up for the Butler outlet. With how this game was going for Boston early, enough can't be said for how huge this possession was at the time and in retrospect.
Early in the third quarter, there were two huge back-to-back plays by Vincent that kick-started the Heat offense. First, a huge deep self-created three to bail out a stifled possession. To say it felt back-breaking in the moment seems egregious, but just watching that game live, it was like, "WOAH, okay this is happening. The Heat are here."
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There's going to be, and already has been, criticism for Tatum's defense here, but I'm not sure what else you're supposed to do. Play too tight, and Vincent is going for a drawn foul. Tatum looks at the shot clock momentarily and that's right when Vincent rises and fires. Huge shot, huge play; here comes the avalanche (Miamalanche???).
Off another stifled Boston possession, Vincent comes down with a high pick from Bam Adebayo, and tries a pull-up three with about 5.5 seconds off the shot clock. He misses, but the impact is sizable. Boston's defense isn't that set, and it's scrambling to be ready earlier. Butler does his ghostly ninja cut to catch&nbsp; Brown off guard as soon as the shot goes up and seals Jaylen, and the offensive rebound falls right into Butler's lap. Putback, Miami lead.
Here's where the fun wrinkle mentioned earlier starts to come in. Jimmy Butler: Super-screener.&nbsp;
Butler was utilized as a screener for much of the game by the Heat, partially to limit how often he was strictly spacing, but also to get him going towards the rim. With how Vincent started to gun from deep and operate as a handler late second and early third, the combining of pressure points was vital in tearing open the gap and bending the Boston defense in cruel ways.
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Three Vincent-Butler pick-and-roll possessions, three fouls drawn! That's pretty good!
Miami did everything they could to put Pritchard through the ringer. Case in point: This Butler-Vincent dribble handoff.
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Make Pritchard run, get Vincent a half-step, make Tatum think and make a decision with the clear-out. Vincent touches the paint and kicks to Tucker. "BANG!"
Vincent's icing on the cake was this sideline out-of-bounds play.
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Another Butler screen in a quick Chicago action for Vincent. White was legitimately everywhere defensively last night, and yet, he just was rendered null and void by Vincent here. That's a nutty shot regardless of who you are; east/west movement, late clock, pull-up going towards the sideline.
While it would be unreasonable to expect Gabe Vincent to replicate this performance for an entire series, the way he was able to play off of Butler and add in his own wrinkles to the offense as a shot-maker was vital in taking an early series lead.
It was an awesome game from a former undrafted player who continues to ratchet up his play and appears even closer to becoming a future starter in the NBA.
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The Heat won Game 1 of the East Finals behind a remarkable Jimmy Butler performance and Gabe Vincent's stellar play.

How Gabe Vincent helped Miami exacerbate pressure points in Game 1

The Eastern Conference field is set, as the Boston Celtics are set to take on the top-seeded Miami Heat for the second time in three years.&nbsp;
This series will have everything you want. Superstar power (Jayson Tatum, Jimmy Butler) and star power (Bam Adebayo, Jaylen Brown).&nbsp;Former All-Stars that can still give you moments &mdash; hello Al Horford, Victor Oladipo and, if healthy, Kyle Lowry.
It also includes fearless role players who can win you a game. For Boston, that's primarily Marcus Smart, Grant Williams and Robert Williams III. Miami has the Sixth Man of the Year in Tyler Herro, an unrelenting PJ Tucker, as well as a stable of undrafted guards in Max Strus and Gabe Vincent.
On the sidelines, Celtics head coach Ime Udoka has been pressing buttons as well as anyone since the turn of the calendar year. Erik Spoelstra has had a strong argument as the NBA's best coach for nearly half a decade. That battle should be a pleasure, especially on the defensive end.&nbsp;
I&rsquo;m not a coach &mdash; I'm just a pun-loving basketball fan with a hankering for film breakdowns. But instead of a traditional series preview, I decided to go into the basketball trenches and devise game plans for both teams. The tone of this two-part series will be a little more informal, but it will still be informative (at least I hope).
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Without further ado, here is what to look for in the East Finals between the Miami Heat and Boston Celtics.
Miami's Defensive Matchups
Gabe Vincent &mdash;&gt; Marcus Smart
Jimmy Butler &mdash;&gt; Jaylen Brown
PJ Tucker &mdash;&gt; Jayson Tatum
Max Strus &mdash;&gt; Grant Williams
Bam Adebayo &mdash;&gt; Al Horford
Boston's Defensive Matchups
Jayson Tatum &mdash;&gt; Gabe Vincent
Marcus Smart &mdash;&gt; Max Strus
Jaylen Brown &mdash;&gt; Jimmy Butler&nbsp;
Al Horford &mdash;&gt; PJ Tucker
Grant Williams &mdash;&gt; Bam Adebayo
We saw these matchups in the most recent outing (March 30). I'd say it's a pretty safe bet this holds to start the series.
Boston's cross-matching intrigues me more than the inverse. Tatum taking Vincent allows him to roam a bit &mdash; unless/until Vincent bombs away from three. Putting Smart on Strus is a great way to take advantage of his screen navigation while eliminating Miami's opening script on offense. The Heat tend to open things up with movement sets to get Strus going early.&nbsp;
Keep an eye on the Williams-Adebayo matchup. Grant has taken on Kevin Durant and Giannis Antetokounmpo in consecutive rounds, and has done so with success. His blend of mobility and strength could bother Adebayo, and those same traits can turn any pick-and-roll involving Adebayo into a switch.
The Battleground: Paint Touches
At their cores, the Heat and Celtics are switchy groups. In fact, they were&nbsp;the&nbsp;switchiest groups in the NBA &mdash; the Celtics ranked first in on-ball switches per 100 possessions (28.8), while the Heat ranked second (28.7), per Second Spectrum. It will be their primary method of flattening out each other's offenses, hoping to bring the game down into the mud.
With neither team playing drop coverage that often &mdash; the Heat and Celtics ranked 26th and 25th in drop rate, respectively &mdash; it'll be interesting to see who can create openings downhill.&nbsp;
If there's a difference between the two, it's Miami's willingness to dial up the pressure. They'll bust out a full-court press. They're not afraid to trap, particularly if there's only one star on the court. The help is&nbsp;aggressive. That leads to a ton of three-point attempts &mdash; the Heat ranked dead last in three-point rate allowed &mdash; but eighth in opponent rim rate.&nbsp;
The Celtics&nbsp;can&nbsp;do that stuff, but generally don't have to thanks to their collective size and screen navigation up top. They effectively cut off the rim (No. 2 in opponent rim rate) and&nbsp;they're able to force opponents into more mid-range shots. Only the Phoenix Suns and Washington Wizards allowed a larger share of mid-range shots than the Celtics this season.
Can the Heat find enough cracks to get into the paint and generate good looks from there? Can the Celtics hit enough threes &mdash; because they will be there &mdash; to loosen things up inside? We shall see.
Celtics' Team Stats (and Boston's stats vs. Miami)&nbsp;
<ul>
<li>Offensive Rating: 113.6 (108.6)</li>
<li>True Shooting Percentage: 57.8% (56.7%)</li>
<li>Assist Percentage: 60.9% (60.9%)</li>
<li>Turnover Rate: 13.9% (12.2%)</li>
<li>Pace: 97.26 (96.33)</li>
<li>Free-Throw Attempts: 20.9 (23.3)</li>
<li>Free-Throw Percentage: 81.6% (74.3%)</li>
<li>Three-Point Attempts: 37.1 (40.0)</li>
<li>Three-Point Percentage: 35.6% (35.8%)</li>
<li>Offensive Rebounds: 9.8 (9.0)</li>
</ul>
Celtics' Play Type Breakdown
<img src="https://cdn.basketballnews.com/images/story/body/screen-shot-2022-05-15-at-7-13-51-pm_lg.png" alt="" width="1113" height="242" />
Heat's Team Stats (and Miami's stats vs. Boston)
<ul>
<li>Offensive Rating: 113.0 (95.8)</li>
<li>True Shooting Percentage: 58.4% (51.0)</li>
<li>Assist Percentage: 64.4% (70.0%)</li>
<li>Turnover Rate: 14.9% (19.1%)</li>
<li>Pace: 96.53 (96.33)</li>
<li>Free-Throw Attempts: 21.4 (18.0)</li>
<li>Free-Throw Percentage: 80.8% (68.5%)</li>
<li>Three-Point Attempts: 35.8 (39.7)</li>
<li>Three-Point Percentage: 37.9% (32.8%)</li>
<li>Offensive Rebounds: 10.5 (9.3)</li>
</ul>
Heat's Play Type Breakdown&nbsp;
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WHAT TO WATCH FOR: EARLY OFFENSE
Lowry's absence looms large for the Heat.&nbsp;
He was the catalyst for their elite transition attack. His touchdown outlet passes put pressure on opponents to get back immediately after possessions end. Early clock pull-up threes became a staple during his time in Toronto; much of that carried over in Miami. Lowry converted 48.0% of his transition threes, including a ridiculous 57.1% clip on pull-ups per Second Spectrum.
With him out for at least Game 1, I'd expect Miami to be even more selective with its pushing. Expect a heavy dose of early-clock dribble handoffs.
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The Celtics weren't a team that ran often either; they ranked 21st in transition frequency (14% of possessions), not too far behind the Heat's middling mark (14.5%) per Cleaning The Glass. The issue is they didn't come close to the Heat's efficiency when they did push. The Heat led the NBA in transition scoring (1.33 points per possession), while the Celtics were 26th (1.21 PPP).
Boston is more likely to feed one of its bigs early as part of the team's Delay series. In those, Horford (or Williams III) will receive the ball in the middle of the floor while the other Celtics screen for each other. This is a very pindown-heavy group.&nbsp;
The tell is when their center (Horford or Williams III) gets an early pass above the break and acts as a handoff hub. It can be as simple as a pair of pindowns &mdash; Tatum receiving one on a side, Brown getting one on the other &mdash; to stretch the defense thin.
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The Celtics can flow into Chicago action &mdash; a pindown into a handoff. It may be a single pindown from the wing to get one of the Jays an early shot or, if the three isn't there, to set up an empty-corner ball-screen.
It'll be important for the Heat to be locked in.
KEY QUESTIONS
1) Who will win the zone battle?
Not to rehash the top, but we know how both teams want to operate defensively. Switch just about any screen; keep the ball in front. Shade off of (perceived) non-shooters to help cut off driving lanes. Bring the game into the gutter.
Both teams have creation-plus-shooting combos that can bend things if they're clicking. The Celtics may be okay giving up mid-rangers, but that's typically where Butler wants to operate. The Heat may be okay trading rim attempts for threes, but how safe of a bet is that with Horford and Williams shooting a combined 21 of 47 (44.7%) on corner triples?
If either team catches a rhythm, the zone will be broken out.
(Quietly, the Heat weren't a good zone offense during the regular season [0.96 PPP, 19th] either.)
As beautiful as the Heat offense looks when they're screening and cutting all over the place, they have possessions where ill-timed cuts can make life easier for an opposing defense. That's exacerbated when teams go zone &mdash; you want to force a zone defender to choose between two players, so improper spacing allows the defense to muck things up without much work.
It's odd to watch the Heat go haywire in the middle of the floor. When a zone is run against their second unit, you feel the lack of playmaking with Dewayne Dedmon at the 5 in place of Adebayo. But with the starters, you sometimes get weird bouts of passiveness.&nbsp;
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That's a darn good counter to a 2-3 zone. Butler gets right into his comfort zone with minimal pressure and... kicks out of it? Huh?
On the flip side, this could be a real problem area for Boston though, a team that ranked 27th in zone offense (0.9 PPP) during the regular season per Synergy. And the Heat don't just&nbsp;go zone; they go to all kinds of zones.&nbsp;
A traditional 2-3, a 3-2, a 1-2-2. They'll go full-court press, then drop into a zone. There are exotic looks, and then there's the Miami Heat defense.
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Much like the Celtics had to quickly adapt to Milwaukee's physicality after their matchup with the Brooklyn Nets, there may be an adjustment period when the Heat throw out their zone. Per Second Spectrum, the Celtics have seen just five (5) zone possessions in the postseason. You might get that in the first six minutes of Game 1.
2) Who&nbsp;can&nbsp;beat drop coverage when they get it?
This can be somewhat of a Tatum question considering his struggles against the Bucks in Round 2. The numbers weren't great &mdash; the Celtics generated a shade under 0.9 PPP on trips where Tatum saw a drop &mdash; but the film was more key.
He'd often pass up more fruitful mid-range attempts, instead opting to string out ball-screens and isolate against a late switch. He's a good enough shot-maker to make that work, but it's a tough diet to live on. And against a team like Miami, I'm not sure how many pockets he can afford to pass up. I've written about his <a href="https://www.basketballnews.com/stories/nba-rumors-miami-heat-boston-celtics-eastern-conference-finals-playoffs-breakdown-preview-how-stop-defend" target="_blank" rel="noopener">lack of a floater before</a>; per Synergy, he's converted just 2 of his 10 runners this postseason, and I'm not sure which number is more concerning.
But this is really a Heat question. Tyler Herro struggled against the Celtics when faced with drop coverage. Between Smart and Derrick White at the point of attack, Herro couldn't consistently shake free. And even when he did, Boston did a good job of providing help at the nail to at least make Herro uncomfortable.
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This is an obvious thing to say, but the Heat are going to need him to get going. Aside from (this version of) Butler, Herro's their best shot-creator in the half-court. He'll need to take pressure off Butler, and carry some of the load when he's heading the second unit.
Whenever Lowry is back, he'll need to channel the same aggression from the last meeting (23 points, 16 shot attempts, 12 threes) if the Celtics drop against him. Ditto for Vincent, whose jumper has quietly fallen off a cliff during the postseason.
3) Derrick White or Victor Oladipo?
At the risk of sounding reductive, these may be the true X-factors of the series.
Both players offer fiesty on-ball defense across multiple positions. Both can juice their offenses in the pick-and-roll, particularly with their downhill chops. And both will likely be ignored when they're stationed off the ball, adding a layer of difficulty for their teammates to generate efficient offense.&nbsp;
White hounded Herro when matched up against them, and found enough utility as a ball-mover for the Celtics to win his minutes +11 in 32 minutes during his lone outing vs. Miami).&nbsp;
Oladipo missed all of the regular-season meetings, but he'll likely see Boston's third-best defender when sharing the court with Miami's other creators. His rim pressure is valuable, but his three-point shooting (27.3% this postseason) can swing things.
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STRAY THOUGHTS
<ul>
<li>Butler vs. Tatum is gonna be a freakin'&nbsp;battle&nbsp;in this series. Before either of these guys have an off night against an elite defense, let's commend them for the production they've shown in the playoffs so far. Studs. Superstars.&nbsp;</li>
<li>I touched on it some during the matchup section, but man do the Heat need an aggressive Bam Adebayo in this one. Horford and both Williams pose different issues than Daniel Theis did during the 2020 series. But, in theory, Adebayo should have a size, strength or quickness advantage against anybody he faces. He can't afford to short-circuit with the ball in his hands. His regular-season averages (14.0 points, 9.7 shot attempts) will not cut it.</li>
<li>This could be yet another Jaylen Brown series. He ripped the Heat during their three-game series (25/6/3, 47.8% from three on 7.7 attempts). And aside from a putrid Game 1 against the Bucks, he's been a metronome for Boston this postseason. If the Heat tilt too much attention to Tatum, Brown should have some cracks to attack.</li>
<li>With Williams III expected to proceed without a minutes restriction, I don't think Boston needs to trot Theis out there. Between Horford and the two Williams, they should have more than enough at the 5.</li>
<li>Speaking of 5s, I wonder how much of a leash Dedmon gets in this series. He hasn't given Miami much offensively &mdash; he's not nearly the same roll threat, and there's even been an uptick in illegal screens for him &mdash; but there's value in his rebounding. If this truly turns into a muck fest, extra possessions will be more valuable than usual.</li>
<li>On the bench guard front, let's see how much burn Payton Pritchard gets. He's arguably Boston's best (pull-up) shooter and zone-breaker. He's also going to have the largest target on his back defensively &mdash; especially if he's on the floor at the same time as Butler.</li>
<li>After an 18-perimeter-shot-attempt game from Williams &mdash; in a Game 7! &mdash; I wonder if the volume has gotten to the point where the scouting report officially changes with him. He's shot well from three all season long, but the volume was low enough for teams to feel comfortable helping off of him and daring him to beat them. Let's see if the Heat become the first team to really blink.</li>
<li>Sign me up for all of the defense in this series, man. This is what it's all about.</li>
</ul>
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Nekias Duncan breaks down what to look for in this year's Eastern Conference Finals matchup between the Heat and Celtics.

NBA Scouting Report: What to look for in Heat-Celtics series

"Joel Embiid is so distracted, in my opinion, by this MVP thing... he's not there tonight."&nbsp;
That was the opening statement from analyst Charles Barkley during TNT's halftime show. At this point, the Miami Heat held a 56-44 lead over the Philadelphia 76ers. Embiid had 6 points (on 6 shots) and a trio of twos: 2 rebounds, 2 assists and 2 turnovers.
Barkley pointed to Embiid's lack of aggression, and wondered if he was able to channel his alleged frustration.&nbsp;
"Ernie [Johnson], when you are mad about something, it can work both ways. It's working the wrong way for Joel Embiid tonight. He is so distracted... Derek Smith, Rick Mahorn, and Dan Marjerle, they told me, man, 'Dude, you're playing like&nbsp;crap.&nbsp;Get your head out your a** and play better.' Someone needs to tell [Embiid] that."
Strong words, strong take. However, it's a take that ignores a couple of things.&nbsp;
1) Embiid shouldn't be playing right now, and I'd wager he wouldn't be if his current set of injuries &mdash; a torn ligament in his thumb and an orbital fracture that's forced him to wear a hammer-proof mask, while also recovering from a freaking concussion &mdash; occured during the regular season. Though fans pretend otherwise, injury recovery isn't linear! Sometimes you feel great, other times you're in pain! Add in a hard bump he took during a rebound fight with Dewayne Dedmon, and, yeah, Embiid probably wasn't his best!
2) Aside from Embiid's physical state, he wasn't on the court using 2K's practice mode. There was a basketball team on the other side hoping to limit his effectiveness. They should&nbsp;probably&nbsp;be commended for doing that in Game 5.
Actually, let's focus on the second point for a moment.&nbsp;
Embiid finished Game 5 with 17 points on 7 of 12 shooting. His All-Star running mate, James Harden, racked up a modest 14-6-4 line while shooting 5 of 13 from the field. Normally a duo that lives at the free-throw line, they combined for 6 free throw attempts.
What on earth happened?
The big picture takeaway: the Heat chose a different way to defend Harden-Embiid ball screens.
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Embiid had set 597 picks for Harden since his Sixers debut, excluding Tuesday night's Game 5, per Second Spectrum. They generated a monstrous 1.18 points per possession (PPP) on direct plays; for reference, the Utah Jazz had the NBA's best offense with a slightly lower mark (1.16 PPP).
They're one of 18 duos with at least 300 picks under their belt in that time frame. Only two pairings &mdash; <a href="https://www.basketballnews.com/stories/there-are-no-good-answers-for-the-chris-pauldeandre-ayton-duo" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Chris Paul and Deandre Ayton</a> (456 picks, 1.29 PPP), Trae Young and Clint Capela (626, 1.21 PPP) &mdash; were more effective on direct hookups.
Teams have been searching for answers since the Sixers traded for the bearded fella. With two players as skilled, as crafty and as different (Embiid's a towering 7-footer, Harden a brick wall at 6-foot-5) as them, each scheme poses a different set of problems.
Sending two to the ball hasn't been fruitful. Harden's too good of a passer, and Embiid's too dominant as a scorer to feed him short-roll opportunities. Playing drop can be problematic if the screen navigation, gap defense and help defense aren't working in tandem.
Switching has been the simplest, erase-the-gaps solution for teams. It's the most frequent coverage the Sixers duo has seen. But that's feeding Harden a big, and Embiid a smaller guy. Despite <a href="https://www.basketballnews.com/stories/the-james-hardenjoel-embiid-duo-needs-to-flip-the-switch" target="_blank" rel="noopener">early concerns about Harden</a>, the Sixers are now scoring over a point per possession when their star tandem gets a switch, per Second Spectrum.
That was the primary method the Heat went with in Game 3 and 4. With a smaller body consistently placed on Embiid after a switch, the Heat had to work extra hard to make sure the Sixers couldn't exploit it. That meant fronting Embiid on the block. And with those fronts, the Heat had to send an extra defender to help on the catch.
It's hard to send two bodies to Embiid while restricting space for Harden drives. To do that while also staying attached to Tobias Harris and being in position to contain Tyrese Maxey, aaaaand keeping tabs on cut-master Danny Green, is a losing battle. You're asking your defense to be perfect at that point. The Heat are elite, but they aren't perfect.
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In Game 5, they decided to effectively kill the switch. The Harden-Embiid duo connected for 16 picks. The Heat only switched three of them; of those three switches, only one of them came within the first 10 seconds of the shot clock.
PJ Tucker was tasked with ducking under screens against Harden, basically daring him to shoot from deep. With Tucker playing more conservatively, Bam Adebayo was able to stay attached to Embiid whenever he attempted to roll to the basket.
With this strategy, the Heat were able to turn things into more of a 2-on-2 affair. If Harden couldn't get downhill, the Heat didn't have to completely shift their defense. That means smaller or flat-out eliminated cracks for Harris or Maxey to attack.
Take this early possession in Game 5. The Sixers are looking to set up an empty-corner ball-screen for Harden and Embiid. If a switch is forced, the Heat would have to do some digging, figuratively and literally, to make the SIxers work for a good look. Instead, Tucker baits Harden into a pull-up by ducking under the screen, and still gets a good contest on the shot.
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The Heat will live with that.&nbsp;
Harden knocks down a three on the possession below, but look at the rest of the Heat's defense. More importantly, look at the other three Sixers. They're stationary. Without Harden putting pressure on the rim, there's no need for the Heat to sell out. Butler shows a body at the nail, but that's about it.
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The Heat will live with that.
One more example, this time from the fourth quarter.
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It's Victor Oladipo (heck of a series for him) and Adebayo working in tandem. Oladipo does a great job of reconnecting with Harden. Adebayo is dropping to take away the roll from Embiid. Butler is peeled in for help, but there's no pressing threat here. The Heat don't have to&nbsp;scramble.
There are counters to be made if you're the Sixers. On the possession above, Maxey could either lift to the wing, or get deeper in the corner to really stress Butler out as a help defender. Having one shooter on that side doesn't have the same effect if he's basically in line with Butler.
As my co-host <a href="https://twitter.com/stevejones20" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Steve Jones Jr.</a> mentioned on the <a href="https://www.basketballnews.com/podcasts/the-dunker-spot" target="_blank" rel="noopener">latest episode of The Dunker Spot</a>, the Sixers can counter drop coverage by having Embiid flip his angle and rescreen if the initial pick doesn't work. They&nbsp;did&nbsp;try it early in the first quarter, and you can see the kind of help the Heat shows from there.
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Tucker does a great job of fighting with Embiid, and the possession ultimately peters out from there, but there's a path to making that work.
But it's going to be up to the Sixers to counter the Heat's counter. They have to put the Heat back in rotation like they did in Games 3 and 4.
If Philadelphia can't, everyone on that side will have something to be mad about.
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Nekias Duncan breaks down the Heat's defense of Joel Embiid and James Harden in Game 5.

How the Heat dropped the Sixers in Game 5

Tyler Herro hasn&rsquo;t had the playoffs that Miami Heat fans were hoping for and that many others were anticipating. Even so, the Heat have gone 7-3 in their 10 playoff games, gentleman-sweeping the Atlanta Hawks with a +60 point differential in Round 1 before going up 3-2 against the Philadelphia 76ers in Round 2.
If you comparison shop, Herro&rsquo;s playoff performance is a distinct upgrade from what he displayed last year. You could say the same for the entire Heat roster given that many of them were fatigued from the year prior, <a href="https://twitter.com/BryanFonsecaNY/status/1517002610179461120">a point I&rsquo;ve made repeatedly about the bubble final four</a>. But Herro&rsquo;s production falls short compared to his rookie year postseason.
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In the bubble, Herro averaged 16.0 points, 5.1 rebounds and 3.7 assists on 43/38/87 shooting splits in 21 playoff games, logging 33.6 minutes per contest. Currently, he&rsquo;s at 14.2 points, 4.4 rebounds and 3.1 assists per contest, and he&rsquo;s averaging just 28.7 minutes per game in part because the Heat keep blowing teams out. (Six of their seven playoff wins have been by double-digit points, and the one that wasn&rsquo;t was a closeout win over Atlanta, in which Jimmy Butler and Kyle Lowry sat.)
His per-36 production is almost exactly the same: 17.1 points, 5.5 rebounds and 3.9 assists as a rookie, and 17.8 points with the same rebounds and assists now. The difference? His shooting splits are down to 42/28 from the field and from three, and while he&rsquo;s shooting 91.3 percent on free throws, he&rsquo;s only averaging 2.9 attempts per 36 minutes, barely up from 2.8 attempts per game two playoffs ago.
Let&rsquo;s not be overly dramatic and say that Herro is <a href="https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=i%27m+fighting+for+my+life+">fighting for his f*cking life</a>, but at 22 years old, he is already playing for his future. The 2019 lottery pick is extension eligible this summer, which will again be one of the most significant free agencies in Heat history regardless of how these playoffs turn out. But if Herro doesn&rsquo;t show enough in these playoffs to warrant a long-term extension, he may have to become a casualty for the team to move forward. Windows are hella fragile in #thisleague.
In the NFL, quarterbacks drafted in the early rounds have a quicker trial period than ever before, something that coincides with how little time young NBA players may have to develop while on a contender. Rookie-scale contracts in the NFL, similar to NBA first-round picks, are for up to four years at the team&rsquo;s discretion. If you&rsquo;re good enough, you&rsquo;ll play through all four years and receive an extension that would kick in immediately afterward. An NFL first-round pick typically gets a fifth-year option, which is at the heart of the controversy surrounding Baker Mayfield now.
After earning over $32 million over these last four seasons following his selection as the No. 1 overall pick in 2018, he&rsquo;s now on a fifth-year option worth under $19 million. He's still on the Cleveland Browns, even as they&rsquo;ve signed DeShaun Watson to a fully guaranteed five-year, $230 million deal, the largest in NFL history.
The point is that the Browns, after Mayfield&rsquo;s struggles, felt that they had to go through alternative means for a franchise quarterback. The Heat are nearing a similar fork-in-the-road decision this summer, in which Herro&rsquo;s current play will serve as a factor.
Here&rsquo;s the Heat&rsquo;s salary cap table going forward, per basketball-reference.com:
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A potential Herro extension wouldn&rsquo;t kick in until 2023-24, and chances are Duncan Robinson&ndash;a prime trade candidate in this summer&ndash;would no longer be on the roster. Herro and Robinson could depart in the same package if Miami deems that&rsquo;s what&rsquo;s best going forward, but would such a trade leave the Heat with enough talent to remain contenders?
Again, we're <a href="https://hoopshype.com/2022/05/11/knicks-heat-are-the-teams-that-are-closely-monitoring-donovan-mitchells-status/">seeing reports about the Heat&rsquo;s interest in Utah Jazz guard Donovan Mitchell</a>. I <a href="https://www.basketballnews.com/stories/examining-potential-trade-desinations-for-donovan-mitchell-2022">wrote about the Mitchell-to-Miami possibilities in late April</a> immediately following Utah&rsquo;s six-game first-round elimination against the Dallas Mavericks. If such a deal were to happen, Herro and Robinson would have to be included for financial reasons, and, well&hellip; never mind. I&rsquo;ll leave Utah alone this time.
But the door seems open because Herro has generally struggled this postseason. He also has, by far, the team&rsquo;s worst on-off plus-minus per 100 possessions. On the court, he&rsquo;s been a -5.7, while the only other player in the negative is Omer Yurtseven (-11.1), who has only played garbage minutes. Herro&rsquo;s on-off is a -39.8. Yurtseven has the second-worst, at -22.8, but again, he doesn&rsquo;t really play. Victor Oladipo, the only other notable rotation player, is a -6.1. All other key players are a net positive.
Now, in fairness to Herro, let&rsquo;s add more context. First, here&rsquo;s his playoff game log, again, per bball ref.
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Game 1 was a blowout, so they didn&rsquo;t need him. Game 2 was fine, and Game 3 was one of his best, including 7 much-needed fourth-quarter points and 12 in the second. In Game 4, he was completely neutralized, largely thanks to Delon Wright, <a href="https://twitter.com/BradyHawk305/status/1516564233684721666">who guarded him for much of the series</a>. In Game 5, without Butler and Lowry, Herro was still mostly limited, even if wasn&rsquo;t "bad" by any means.
In this series, Sixers coach Doc Rivers has talked about putting an emphasis on slowing Herro, who went off for 25 points on 53/67/100 shooting splits in the opener, and so far that has worked to a degree, as Herro has been held to 13.3 points per game on 42/32/90 splits ever since.
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-theme="dark">
Doc Rivers on what he told his team when defending Tyler Herro: &ldquo;Let&rsquo;s make a mistake on anybody but Herro.&rdquo; Said he&rsquo;s fine with mistakes, &ldquo;but just not him.&rdquo;
&mdash; Brady Hawk (@BradyHawk305) <a href="https://twitter.com/BradyHawk305/status/1522037933146091522?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">May 5, 2022</a></blockquote>

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While Herro&rsquo;s struggles have been born out of respect, he hasn&rsquo;t fully adjusted. Luckily for the Heat, it hasn&rsquo;t been quite the deciding factor since Butler has been an All-NBA Playoff Performer so far. Herro has the team&rsquo;s second-highest playoff usage rate at 24.5, leads the team in turnovers due to bad passes this post-season with 12 and hasn&rsquo;t quite been his Sixth-Man-of-the-Year self. He did, however, find some offense late in Game 5 over Philadelphia after a one-point first half. He found angles and was able to get to his floater after knifing through the lane, scoring 9 second-half points before sitting because the game was out of reach.
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Rivers alluded to adjustments necessary for stopping Butler, who is averaging about 28-8-6 in the playoffs on 54/37/82 shooting. That could mean double teams, and that could open up things for Herro in Game 6. Maybe the Heat haven&rsquo;t needed a hero in the way Nas intended, but if Butler sees increased defensive resistance in Game 6, they might. On many fronts, it would go a long way if he took advantage, both in this series, and for his career.
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Tyler Herro may have won Sixth Man of the Year, but has he done enough to make himself a staple in Miami's lineup long-term?

Is Tyler Herro already playing for his future with the Miami Heat?

We saw glimpses late in the regular season. We saw more flashes in the Round 1 series against the Atlanta Hawks. Then, in last night's 120-85 drubbing of the Philadelphia 76ers, we were given yet another view of what Victor Oladipo can provide the Miami Heat when healthy and in rhythm.
With Kyle Lowry hobbled and in and out of the lineup, Gabe Vincent struggling from the field and an overall lack of half-court shot creation outside Jimmy Butler and Tyler Herro, Oladipo finding his groove is proving essential for the Heat.
Oladipo played only eight games in the regular season, which is still mind-boggling. He hasn't even played in 20 contests with Miami since the trade from Houston last season, though he'll hit the mark on Thursday when he sees the court during Game 6.
Returning from injury multiple times and trying to find his way on the court as a player has certainly been a process for Oladipo. He fell out of Erik Spoelstra's rotation entirely near the end of the season, accruing five DNP (Coach's Decisions) in a six-game stretch.
When Oladipo did play, he never quite found his role. The flashes were there, but the cohesiveness wasn't, which was understandable given the context. That's what makes his current play all the more impressive.
Some of the clunkiness in the offense remains, but the process is clicking.&nbsp;
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Here, Oladipo throws a lob when Caleb Martin isn't on the same page, and even with the failed outlet, Oladipo quickly makes himself available.&nbsp;
Selling the at-rim attempt to get Paul Reed in the air before hitting Bam Adebayo with a dumpoff is the kind of verve and creativity the Heat really need in half-court settings. Turning nothing into something was Oladipo's specialty in Indiana. Being able to do it flowing in the offense alongside Butler was highlighted in Game 5, and it had me doing the Leonardo DiCaprio Once Upon a Time in Hollywood&nbsp;point at the screen from my desk.
Off this baseline out-of-bounds play, we hardly even get to see it (much like Joel Embiid!), and that's part of the point:
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His suddenness and stealth as a cutter collapsing the defense creates easy points for the two-man play with Jimmy Butler.
A few possessions later on another broken play, Butler misses the jumper and gets his own board. Oladipo makes himself available in the corner, and when Maxey flies in to pick him up, Oladipo jets to the rim to keep the outlet open for Butler.
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With how demonstrative Butler has been getting into the lane and collapsing the defense in the playoffs, Oladipo finding his timing as an off-ball player is an absolute boon.
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But, the Heat have a multitude of players who can flow off the ball. What makes this so notable is what Oladipo has been able to bring as both a pick-and-roll operator and late clock shot-taker/maker.
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When Oladipo draws close-outs the way he's capable of when his shot is falling, he creates havoc with his secondary attacks. If the shot clock is winding down, he's good at drawing contact and finding his way to the free throw line, averaging four trips to the line in the series and 3.4 in the seven games he's played in the playoffs.
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Finding his balance toggling on and off the ball opens up new line-up constructions and modes of play that elevate who the Heat can be.
So much depends on his shot falling on volume, which has been a sticking point since his initial injury in Indiana. Drawing the defense on the weak-side and getting to the rim to keep revving the engine of the offense, or gliding into his pull-up twos or floaters is predicated on defenses respecting his shot. He still doesn't quite have that standstill burst he did in 2017-18, but stepping into the catch off the second side is legitimately devastating from him.
A side note: I'm not even sure it's about his legs not being back. He certainly doesn't have the same first step he once did. However, it feels like his handle and his lower body haven't gotten back into sync. Injuries suck, but I think it makes me appreciate Oladipo and the work he's put in to get back even more. It's been a really difficult few seasons for him, and seeing him find his footing is awesome.
This snippet from Game 2 is the quintessential vision of who Victor Oladipo can be in Miami:
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He exhibits consistent cycling of the offense. He makes himself available and shifts on and off the ball.
The ground coverage has been awesome. Watch the way he shuts down Tyrese Maxey's drive and the way he's able to crunch in to help in the paint before closing back out, getting his hand in the cookie jar and getting away scot-free with a turnover.
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He's absolutely hounded James Harden when he's matched up with him, often pressing Harden for 94 feet. It sounds minute, but just go back through and watch the possessions where Oladipo presses Harden.
Furthermore, look how consistently the Sixers are starting their possessions with a third of the clock drained. Even without a turnover caused (and many have been!), applying pressure has smothered Philly's offense.
Oladipo is so active on screens, and his play this series reminds us why he was All-Defense a few seasons ago. He engulfs offensive players on switches and chokes the gaps to make it more difficult to slip (a great part of Miami's overall defensive ethos). I hate charges with a passion, but Oladipo draws contact as the low man with charisma. I don't know how else to explain it!
He sheds screens and uses his probing arms so well to spear ball-handlers and make his presence felt. James Harden is not having a good time with Oladipo!
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What he's brought defensively is unquestionable. Pairing his aptitude and skill on that end with his growth in comfort as a more complimentary player makes me more optimistic about the postseason upside of this team.
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Miami's 120-85 win over Philadelphia last night was punctuated by Victor Oladipo's play, which amplified the Heat.

Victor Oladipo is finding his verve with Miami

Jimmy Butler scored 23 points, Max Strus added 19 points and 10 rebounds, and the Miami Heat moved one win away from a trip to the Eastern Conference finals by topping the Philadelphia 76ers 120-85 on Tuesday night.
Victor Oladipo scored 13 for Miami, which got 12 from Bam Adebayo and 10 apiece from Tyler Herro and P.J. Tucker. The top-seeded Heat now lead the East semifinal series 3-2, and improved to an NBA-best 6-0 at home in these playoffs.
Joel Embiid scored 17 points for fourth-seeded Philadelphia, which got 14 from James Harden and 12 from Tobias Harris. The 76ers were down by 15 going into the fourth, then gave up 12 consecutive points to open the final quarter.
Game 6 is in Philadelphia on Thursday.
It was a tough night all the way around for the Sixers, especially for Embiid &mdash; their best player, already wearing a mask to protect a facial fracture and dealing with a significant thumb injury.
Embiid got shaken up in the first quarter when he tried to dive into some baseline seats while attempting to save a loose ball. He doubled over shortly afterward, grabbing at his back.
He remained in the game after that scare.
He also remained in the game after the next scare, which was much worse.
It came midway through the second quarter, when Miami&rsquo;s Dewayne Dedmon missed a shot and Embiid grabbed the rebound. Dedmon, flailing for the ball, made contact with it &mdash; and wound up pushing it back into Embiid&rsquo;s mask-covered face.
Embiid lost the ball and went down in pain, covering his face with both hands. Oladipo picked up the ball and scored to make it 42-31, but Embiid writhing was of much greater importance to the 76ers than giving up two points. Embiid remained down for several moments, before making his way back to the Philadelphia bench and getting tended to by doctors.
And now Philadelphia must beat the Heat in Games 6 and 7, with almost all the odds pointing to how difficult that task will be.
All-time in best-of-seven series, entering this round, teams that won Game 1 of a matchup ultimately prevail 75.6% of the time. Game 1 winners at home, 85% of the time. Teams that start a series with a 2-0 lead, 92.4% of the time. And teams that win Game 5 for a 3-2 series lead wind up advancing 82.2% of the time.
All those stats favor Miami, obviously.
Tyrese Maxey made a deep 3-pointer with 1.5 seconds left in the third to pull Philadelphia within 81-66. Whatever hope remained for the 76ers in that moment was short-lived.
A jumper from Herro and then five straight points from Strus were the start of Miami&rsquo;s game-sealing flurry that opened the fourth. A three-point play from Adebayo pushed the lead to 25, at which point Embiid checked out with the outcome clearly no longer in question.
TIP-INS
76ers: None of Philadelphia&rsquo;s starters played in the final 8:18. ... Maxey, who has been great for the majority of this series, shot 2 for 10. ... Georges Niang was 0 for 5, all of those shots from 3-point range, reminiscent of his 0-for-7 stat line &mdash; all on 3s &mdash; in Game 1.
Heat: After shooting 14 for 65 from 3-point range in the two losses at Philadelphia (21.5%), the Heat shot 13 for 33 from deep on Tuesday (39.4%). ... Miami improved to 18-4 all-time in Game 5s at home. ... The Heat outrebounded Philadelphia 46-36. ... Miami is one of two teams unbeaten at home in these playoffs. Golden State is 5-0.
FANDUEL SAYS
Miami was a three-point favorite at tipoff. After the Heat won the first quarter 31-19, the line went to 7.5 points.
SILVER VISITS
NBA Commissioner Adam Silver attended the game, seated with Ahmad Rashad &mdash; whose ties to the league go back decades, primarily for his years as host and executive producer of &ldquo;NBA Inside Stuff.&rdquo; Also in the crowd: NBA champion Mike Miller of the Heat, and longtime baseball star, Miami native and Minnesota Timberwolves co-minority owner Alex Rodriguez.
UP NEXT
Game 6 is Thursday in Philadelphia.

Jimmy Butler scored 23 points, Max Strus added 19 points and 10 rebounds, and the Heat are one win away from the East Finals.

Heat roll past 76ers 120-85 in Game 5, take 3-2 series lead

With nearly a full month of NBA playoff action in the books, we've witnessed a handful of players surprisingly exceed expectations and drive their league-wide value to increasingly high levels. On the other end of the spectrum, several stars have seen their market price dip quite a bit.
So whose stock has soared? Whose has plummeted? Let's dive in with an in-depth breakdown.
Stock Up
Jalen Brunson, Dallas Mavericks
Heading into the 2021-22 season, the Dallas Mavericks could have signed Jalen Brunson to a four-year, $56 million extension. However, <a href="https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/33801390/nba-playoffs-2022-jalen-brunson-star-turn-dallas-mavericks-massive-free-agency-implications" target="_blank" rel="noopener">ESPN's Tim MacMahon</a> reported that the Mavs chose not to make an offer and didn't even engage in negotiations with Brunson's representatives. You have to assume Dallas is now regretting that decision.
After averaging career-highs in scoring (16.3 points), assists (4.8), rebounds (3.9) and steals (0.8) during the regular season, Brunson has taken his game to another level in the playoffs. With Luka Doncic sidelined early on in the Mavs' first-round series vs. Utah, Brunson got off to a scorching hot start, tallying 96 points, 16 rebounds and 16 assists over the first two games. He became just the third player in NBA history to tally at least 70 points and 10 assists while committing fewer than 2 turnovers over a two-game span in the postseason. Incredibly, Brunson led all players in total points scored in the first round (167).
After struggling a bit in the first two games of Dallas' first-round series vs. Phoenix, Brunson was again a crucial factor in the Mavs' victories at home in Games 3 and 4 over the weekend.&nbsp;
Through 10 postseason contests, Brunson is averaging 23.5 points, 4.6 boards and 3.9 dimes per game. He's done most of his damage by relentlessly attacking the rim. Among all postseason performers, Brunson ranks third in drives per game (behind only Ja Morant and Doncic) and third in points scored off drives.
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-theme="dark">
WHAT A NIGHT FOR JALEN BRUNSON! 🔷 Career-high 41 PTS 🔷 6 3PM 🔷 8 REB 🔷 Gets the W in Game 2 <a href="https://t.co/GixvrcCqIM">pic.twitter.com/GixvrcCqIM</a>
&mdash; NBA on TNT (@NBAonTNT) <a href="https://twitter.com/NBAonTNT/status/1516250998607540229?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">April 19, 2022</a></blockquote>

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It could be argued that no player has boosted his stock more over the past few weeks than Brunson. And it couldn't come at a better time for the versatile combo guard, who will become an unrestricted free agent on July 1. We know the New York Knicks are interested in making a run at Brunson, and <a href="https://marcstein.substack.com/p/a-slow-spinning-coaching-marketplace-1ce?token=eyJ1c2VyX2lkIjo0MDU5OTIyOCwicG9zdF9pZCI6NTMyMjYzMDQsIl8iOiJscTRCVSIsImlhdCI6MTY1MTUyMjAxMywiZXhwIjoxNjUxNTI1NjEzLCJpc3MiOiJwdWItMzkyMjA1Iiwic3ViIjoicG9zdC1yZWFjdGlvbiJ9.Tiw_7fovr2Ot5a6LeR_ujN2MyJCkgAuKahkQLnMBOMU&amp;s=r" target="_blank" rel="noopener">according to Marc Stein</a>, Detroit and Indiana have shown interest as well. However, Mark Cuban has stated publicly he plans to re-sign Brunson &mdash; even if it has an outsized impact on Dallas' luxury tax bill.&nbsp;
Victor Oladipo, Miami Heat
Due to a slew of serious injuries that limited him to only 88 games over the past three seasons, Victor Oladipo was forced to settle for a one-year deal with Miami on the veteran minimum back in August. The hope was he'd be able to show teams during the 2021-22 campaign that he was finally fully healthy. Unfortunately, Oladipo was sidelined for nearly all of the regular season as he recovered from a debilitating right quadriceps injury. 'Dipo didn't make his season debut until March 7.&nbsp;
After playing sporadically in late March and early April, Oladipo exploded for 40 points in the Heat's regular-season finale. Yet, he was a DNP-CD in each of Miami's first three playoff games. However, with both Jimmy Butler (knee) and Kyle Lowry (hamstring) ruled out for Game 5 of the Heat's first-round series vs. the Atlanta Hawks, Oladipo slid into the starting lineup. He finished that contest with 23 points (8 of 16 from the field, 4 of 4 on free throws), 3 assists, 3 steals, and 3 triples in 36 minutes. Needless to say, 'Dipo has been a part of the Miami rotation since. In Game 2 of Miami's second-round matchup vs. the Philadelphia 76ers, he tallied 19 points, 6 rebounds and 3 triples. He also chipped in 15 points off the bench in Game 4.&nbsp;
Oladipo will undoubtedly have plenty of interest on the free-agent market this summer.
Al Horford, Boston Celtics
Al Horford's 2022-23 salary is only partially guaranteed. And when the Celtics initially acquired Horford last summer in a trade with the Oklahoma City Thunder, some pundits speculated that Boston might look to get out from under the $26.5 million owed to Big Al next season.&nbsp;
But with as well as he has played this postseason, that will no longer be a consideration. Horford has been a godsend for Boston, averaging 15.9 points, 9.4 rebounds, 2.8 assists and 1.1 blocks per contest through the Celtics' first eight playoff games. In Game 3 vs. Milwaukee on Saturday, Horford became the first player in Boston's franchise history with at least 20 points, 15 rebounds, 5 assists and 4 made three-pointers in a single playoff game. Then, in Monday's Game 4 victory, he exploded for 30 points, 8 rebounds, 5 triples and 3 assists.
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Stock Down
Donovan Mitchell and Rudy Gobert, Utah Jazz
Rumors of a <a href="https://www.basketballnews.com/stories/expect-the-knicks-to-make-a-real-run-at-donovan-mitchell-this-summer" target="_blank" rel="noopener">rocky relationship between Donovan Mitchell and Rudy Gobert have been swirling for years</a>. Unfortunately for Utah, it appears the team will be forced to trade one of its two best players at a time when their respective values have depreciated.
The two pillars of the Jazz franchise played relatively well during the regular season, but the rumblings of toxicity in Utah grew louder as the year dragged on. Mitchell not sharing the ball with Gobert has become a topic of conversation in early April. Shortly thereafter, Gobert called out his teammates for not wanting to play physically and "<a href="https://www.sltrib.com/sports/jazz/2022/03/30/triple-team-jazz-lost/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">get our hands dirty</a>." When asked about the perceived finger-pointing, Mitchell characterized it as "<a href="https://www.sltrib.com/sports/jazz/2022/04/01/utah-jazz-vow-not-fall/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">childish</a>."&nbsp;
Utah backed into the playoffs after losing five straight games in late March, but was hoping to take advantage of a Mavericks team playing without its best player, Doncic, who was sidelined by a calf injury for the first two contests. However, the Jazz lost Game 2 and lost the series in six games.
Over the six-game series vs. Dallas, Mitchell averaged over 22 field-goal attempts per contest, but shot just 39.8% from the floor and 20.8% from downtown. He became the first player in league history to attempt more than 20 field goals but shoot below 40% from the field and under 21% from three-point territory over a postseason run. And Mitchell's poor defense was arguably more problematic than his offense. Utah allowed over 115 points per 100 possessions vs. Dallas with Mitchell on the court. That number dropped to 104.5 with Mitchell on the bench.
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Here&rsquo;s video of Rudy Gobert talking about the defensive improvements he&rsquo;s seen from Devin Booker on January 14th&hellip; As well as the Donovan Mitchell responses to 2 separate questions a day later: <a href="https://t.co/irKTufQJ1L">pic.twitter.com/irKTufQJ1L</a>
&mdash; Tomer Azarly (@TomerAzarly) <a href="https://twitter.com/TomerAzarly/status/1520538333482749952?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">April 30, 2022</a></blockquote>

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Gobert averaged just 12.0 points per game on 5.5 attempts per game (a career-low in his six postseason appearances) and blocked a total of 6 shots in the six-game series. It was the first time in his career he averaged more turnovers than blocks and steals combined. The Mavs often attempted to take advantage of Gobert's difficulty covering the perimeter by going small and spreading the floor.&nbsp;
Dating back to the 2021 postseason (when they dropped four straight to a shorthanded Clippers team that lost Kawhi Leonard to an ACL tear), the Jazz have lost 8 of their last 10 playoff games. With Gobert, Mitchell, Mike Conley, Bojan Bogdanovic, Jordan Clarkson and Royce O'Neale locked into contracts that will pay them north of $133 million in guaranteed money next season, Utah won't be able to make any significant upgrades via free agency.&nbsp;
Last week, <a href="https://www.si.com/nba/jazz/news/rudy-gobert-him-or-me-ultimatum-donovan-mitchell">it was reported</a> that Gobert had reached a "him or me" point with Mitchell and would demand one of the two be traded this summer. It's difficult to envision the Jazz entering the 2022-23 season with both <a href="https://www.basketballnews.com/stories/examining-potential-trade-destinations-for-rudy-gobert" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Gobert</a> and <a href="https://www.basketballnews.com/stories/examining-potential-trade-desinations-for-donovan-mitchell-2022" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Mitchell</a> on the roster.
Duncan Robinson, Miami Heat
As noted above, Oladipo has stepped in and stepped up for the Heat over the past two weeks. On the flip side of the coin, we have Duncan Robinson, who has gone from a crucial contributor to a non-factor.&nbsp;
Robinson started all 72 games for Miami in 2020-21, averaging 13.1 points and 3.5 rebounds while shooting 40.8% from beyond the arc (on 8.5 three-point attempts per game). The Heat rewarded him with a five-year contract worth $90 million. However, Robinson regressed during the 2021-22 regular season, as his production and percentages dipped. After starting 68 of the team's first 72 games, he was bumped to the bench in late March. Following a solid outing in Game 1 vs. Atlanta, coach Erik Spoelstra clearly didn't feel comfortable trusting his sharpshooter. Robinson averaged just 2.3 points in 10.7 minutes per contest in the final four games of the first round.&nbsp;
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Remarkably, Robinson has logged a total of just 55 seconds thus far in Round 2, and has been a DNP-CD in 3 of the 4 contests. This is obviously not what Pat Riley and company had in mind when they ponied up $90 million less than nine months ago.
With $74.5 million still owed to Robinson over the next four years, will Miami look to dump his contract this summer already?&nbsp;
Kyrie Irving, Brooklyn Nets
<a href="https://www.basketballnews.com/stories/why-the-nets-should-part-ways-with-kyrie-irving" target="_blank" rel="noopener">As I detailed in this space last month</a>, the Nets are on the precipice of a difficult decision.&nbsp;
Kyrie Irving has a player option worth $35,328,700 for the 2022-23 campaign. If he declines his option, he would be eligible to sign a new five-year deal with Brooklyn worth up to $248 million. While Kyrie is still capable of playing at an incredibly high level, the Nets have to decide how much he's worth considering his injury history (since signing with Brooklyn in 2019, Irving has appeared in just 103 of 216 regular-season games) and the off-court drama he brings to the table.&nbsp;
In the three years since Brooklyn added Kevin Durant and Kyrie, the Nets have won just one playoff series. This past season, Nets owner Joe Tsai spent $266 million in salary and luxury tax payments, the second-highest amount in league history. The Nets don't have a single playoff victory to show for it.
And over the team's final three games in the first round, Irving averaged just 15.3 points while shooting a putrid 37.2% from the floor and a frigid 18.2% from downtown.
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Whose stock in the NBA Playoffs has soared before this offseason? Whose has plummeted? Tommy Beer dives in.

Stock Up, Stock Down: NBA Playoffs edition

With just one minute and 15 seconds remaining in Game 4, James Harden stared at holes in the Miami Heat's defense, preparing to make his move.
Danny Green crept up to Victor Oladipo's right side to create a driving lane for Harden's preferred left, and so Tyler Herro hedged the pick-and-roll to stop Harden in his tracks. Then, with just five seconds to improvise, Harden whipped out a slew of crossovers, stepped back to his right while gathering across his body, nearly dropped the ball and proceeded to nail the game-sealing three.
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Harden's 16 fourth-quarter points were the most he's scored in the final frame of an NBA playoff game since way back in 2015. Moreover, Sunday was just the second time since the turn of the new year that Harden broke 30 points in a game, regular season or the playoffs. It was only fitting that the shot that had failed him most in his down year signed, sealed and delivered his keystone performance of the season.
It's true. Harden's step-back three, a weapon that once sent shivers of fear up and down defenders' spines, fell off a statistical cliff during the 2021-22 season. The Beard connected on just 33.3% of his 199 step-back treys this season; yet, in his previous four seasons, that percentage sat at 38.9% on 1,431 shots. Quite the tailspin, indeed.
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It's tough to decipher what has fueled that decline. One could make the case that his lift has failed him; now, he's unable to generate the same level of space when moving front-to-back on his signature shot. Maybe it's his free-falling first step, as James is no longer able to keep defenders on their toes in lieu of the threat of his drive, making those step-backs all the easier to contain. More than likely it's a combination of both, a consequence of multiple hamstring strains in the previous season and an offseason set back by slow, plodding rehabilitation.
But that was the beauty of Sunday. Those arguments about the former MVP's decline, for the first time in a while, were best saved for another day. In Game 4, he was sublime &mdash; nah man, let's be real &mdash; he looked like Prime Harden in certain stretches, knocking down 4 of his 7 step-backs en route to 31 points on 69.2% True Shooting. Heck, the dude was feeling it so much he even took (and made!) a catch-and-shoot three.
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But Harden's barrage of step-backs wasn't his only divine moment. 
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This drive in the second quarter was one of Harden's best rim attacks of the entire 2021-22 season after getting the switch against Herro. An hour(-ish) later, he did similar things against Bam Adebayo, first getting a half-step on the Defensive Player of the Year finalist, and then whipping out a nasty&nbsp;hesitation dribble to clear his way to the rim for the uncontested lay-up.
Of course, Harden wasn't without his flaws. On numerous occasions, the 32-year-old was stonewalled on drives to the rim, a trend that has reared its ugly head throughout the entirety of the season; his 59.8% shooting within 3 feet of the basket was his worst regular-season mark since his rookie year. It didn't really matter who was in front of him &mdash; PJ Tucker, Jimmy Butler, Victor Oladipo... shoot, even Herro &mdash; if Harden couldn't generate any space with his dribbling forrays, his drives were as good as done-zo, swallowed up or just flat-out swatted into nothingness by a defense eager to pounce. Overall, the Beard shot just 1 of 7 on his drives to the rim.
I've long worked under the hypothesis that Harden's decline in zippiness, and especially his first step, has dramatically affected his once-touted decelaration game. Why? Well, because his top speed has been dampered, Harden now has nothing to contrast with when he drags his feet to slow down. What I'm saying is: He's effectively working at one speed for the entirety of his drives, and it makes him all too predictable as a downhill-heavy player.
The first clip in the video below is a great example. Harden does a nice job getting a shoulder into Butler's body after a series of crossovers, but because his first three steps are so sluggish, Butler is able to stay an arm's reach away. Then, when Harden decelerates in the cadence that once made him so tough to tango with, his change-of-pace game actually works against him and gives Butler ample room to recover for the block.&nbsp;
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One thing that has remained a constant this year has been Harden's passing, which, whew. He tossed out some beauties versus Miami. 
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Harden was just about the only Sixer who could capably feed Joel Embiid entry passes against the relentlessly fronting Miami Heat defense, powering a 15-point first quarter for the MVP front-runner. His second-quarter lay-down pass to a cutting Tobias Harris after faking it to Tyrese Maxey in the strong-side corner was just vintage stuff from one of the best passers in the Association.
Sunday marked Harden's sixth game of tossing out 9 dimes or more, which ties Ja Morant for the most&nbsp; playoff games with 9+ assists this current postseason.
Game 4 was more than just another extraordinary performance etched into a storied legacy; it was the physical representation of a player breaking out of the shackles of his least efficient season since just 20 years of age.
Is it sustainable? Can Harden continue to supercharge and lead a playoff offense? And, maybe more importantly, can The Beard helm the Sixers into winning the minutes (by +3) with its superstar in Embiid off the floor?
That much is to be determined... and is maybe the biggest swing factor of the 2022 postseason. Sure, Harden had himself a monstrous showing with his team's season on the line, but 6 of his 8 makes came from the three-point line; otherwise, he went just 2 of 8 from two-point range on the night &mdash; a troubling trend for a player that's so rim-dependent.
It's crazy, but suddenly, one of the league's most prestigious scorers &mdash; a walking 50-point bucket just two seasons ago and a former MVP &mdash; is one of the NBA's biggest X-factors in the postseason.&nbsp;
The success of his Philadelphia 76ers rides on his ability to take a step back, step-back and reclaim his greatness on the shot that brought him to the forefront of the NBA landscape.
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Matt Brooks details James Harden's extraordinary performance in Game 4 for the 76ers and why he is a huge X-factor for Philadelphia.

Taking a step-back: How James Harden found his groove in Game 4

Philadelphia and Dallas head home trying to stay in conference semifinal series against the top seeds &mdash; the 76ers forced again to play without Joel Embiid against Miami, and the Mavericks waiting for someone to help Luka Doncic against Phoenix.
The Sixers ruled out Embiid on Thursday for Game 3 on Friday night in Philadelphia with the orbital fracture sustained in the first-round clincher against Toronto. The Heat won the first two games with the MVP finalist sidelined. (Editor's Note: Embiid has since been upgraded to doubtful as of Friday afternoon, and could feel comfortable enough to suit up for Game 3 in Philadelphia, per <a href="https://twitter.com/ShamsCharania/status/1522608908707241985?s=20&amp;t=--wpyE3EkwmkWfua-te3eg" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Shams Charania</a>.)
Dallas coach Jason Kidd repeated himself following a second loss to Chris Paul, Devin Booker and the Suns &mdash; the 11th consecutive defeat for the Mavericks, regular season included, against the team with the NBA's best record.
Game 3 of the Western Conference series is Friday night in Dallas.
&ldquo;He (Doncic) had a great game, but no one else showed,&rdquo; Kidd said after a <a href="https://apnews.com/article/phoenix-suns-dallas-mavericks-nba-sports-1aea4448d88f9b92c0bbf86ebad8d9c5">129-109 loss in Game 2</a>, sounding about the same as he did two nights earlier following a series-opening 121-114 loss in Phoenix. &ldquo;We can&rsquo;t win with just him out there scoring 30 a night.&rdquo;
James Harden and Tyrese Maxey obviously are missing Embiid, who is also dealing with a thumb injury. The Philly guards couldn't find a way to get a split at Miami, the top seed in the East, without the five-time All-Star.
The Sixers weren't closer than eight points in the fourth quarter of the first two games, and Maxey sees the first quarter as the key to changing that.
&ldquo;When we go home with the crowd on our side, we&rsquo;ve got to hit first,&rdquo; Maxey said after the <a href="https://apnews.com/article/miami-heat-philadelphia-76ers-nba-sports-tobias-harris-26b997a57116cfa80251be70b77c1a59">119-103 loss in Game 2</a>. &ldquo;Coach Doc said something in the locker room before the game about, &lsquo;Let&rsquo;s not be a counterpunching team tonight.&rsquo; I think that really hit home. We&rsquo;ve got to go after them first and put them on their heels.&rdquo;
Philadelphia is battling history, too.
Miami has taken a 2-0 lead in 18 previous series, including the first round this season against Atlanta, and won the matchup every time. The 76ers have dropped the first two games 19 previous times, never recovering to win the series.
Bam Adebayo led the Heat with 23 points in Game 2. The Miami center tops the list of players impacted by the possible return of the 7-foot Embiid.
&ldquo;It changes dramatically. You&rsquo;re talking about MVP talent,&rdquo; Heat coach Erik Spoelstra said. &ldquo;We knew that this series was going to shift and it was going to change pretty dramatically. It&rsquo;s better for it to change dramatically when we&rsquo;re able to get a couple of wins.&rdquo;
The Mavericks were close in the fourth quarter of Game 2 before Paul sparked a 23-2 run with the Suns leading by six. He had 14 of his 28 points in the fourth. Booker had consecutive 3-pointers during the run and scored 30.
&ldquo;We have guys that definitely can guard these guys,&rdquo; said Dallas guard Reggie Bullock, one of the defense-first players assigned that task. &ldquo;But it&rsquo;s going to take a team effort to be able to contain them.&rdquo;
Jalen Brunson averaged 27.8 points in the first-round win over Utah, when Doncic missed the first three games with a left calf strain. Brunson is averaging 11 points on 32% shooting against the Suns and has almost as many fouls (eight) as baskets (nine).
Doncic, who scored 45 and 35 points in the first two games, looked tired with the Suns repeatedly attacking him on screens, particularly in the fourth quarter when they shot 84%.
&ldquo;He should be tired,&rdquo; Kidd said. &ldquo;He played his heart out. He&rsquo;s tired every night. He plays hard. We&rsquo;ve got to get other guys involved to help him. Right now it&rsquo;s just been him.&rdquo;
HEAT AT 76ERS
Miami leads 2-0. Game 3, 7 p.m. EDT, ESPN.
&mdash; NEED TO KNOW: Miami G Victor Oladipo, playing in the conference semifinals for the first time in his career, scored 19 in Game 2. It was just his 12th game of the season, and he has played four consecutive games for the first time since joining the Heat after being plagued by issues with his right quadriceps tendon. A two-time All-Star in Indiana, Oladipo can help offset the return of Embiid with consistent production. He scored 23 in the first-round clincher against Atlanta.
&mdash; KEEP AN EYE ON: Philadelphia&rsquo;s 3-point shooting. The 76ers were the No. 3 team in the first round from beyond the arc (40.8%). They&rsquo;re by far the worst team so far in the conference semifinal round, connecting on just 21.9% in the first two games of the series.
&mdash; INJURY WATCH: Heat PG Kyle Lowry, who has missed the last four games with a strained left hamstring, was upgraded to questionable for Game 3. Playing in Philadelphia always has significance to Lowry, since he went to Villanova and is a North Philly native.
&mdash; PRESSURE IS ON: Philadelphia. The Sixers have to find a way win without Embiid. Otherwise, a 3-0 deficit might be the thing that gets them checking out and thinking about summer vacation.
SUNS AT MAVERICKS
Phoenix leads 2-0. Game 3, 9:30 p.m. EDT, ESPN.
&mdash; NEED TO KNOW: The Suns have shot at least 50% in all eight playoff games, with the 64.5% in Game 2 against Dallas the highest yet. Paul is shooting a mind-numbing 67% inside the 3-point line. The defensive turnaround for the Mavericks has been one of the biggest stories of Kidd's first season. They were second to Boston in fewest points allowed in the regular season and kept it up while beating the Jazz in six games. Not so much in this series.
&mdash; KEEP AN EYE ON: Dallas G Spencer Dinwiddie had some of his best games when Doncic was out during the regular season. His production is way off in the postseason. There were signs of life in Game 2, when he scored 10 of his 11 points to help Dallas take a 60-58 halftime lead. But he got just one shot, and missed it, in the fourth quarter.
&mdash; INJURY WATCH: Dallas F Maxi Kleber played 28 minutes and scored nine points in Game 2 after taking a nasty fall on his back, shoulders and neck in the series opener. The Mavericks have said he came through OK, but his effectiveness will bear watching after he acknowledged being sore.
&mdash; PRESSURE IS ON: Mavericks G-F Dorian Finney-Smith needs to stay out of foul trouble. He's among the most important defenders and was limited to 20 minutes after picking up three fouls in the first quarter.

Philadelphia and Dallas head home trying to stay in conference semifinal series against the top seeds.

Embiid upgraded to doubtful; Sixers, Mavs seek rebound vs. Heat, Suns

Early in the third quarter, Jimmy Butler casually trots down the right side of the floor.&nbsp;
He pitches the ball to Bam Adebayo above the break, then jogs to the right corner. It looks like Butler is setting up a pindown for Max Strus, which would likely flow into a handoff with Adebayo. Instead, Strus cuts through to the left side of the court, clearing the right side for Butler and Adebayo to go to work.&nbsp;
Adebayo passes the ball to Butler, then sets a screen for him. Tobias Harris gets cleared out by Adebayo's screen. Butler takes a couple of dribbles to his left, while DeAndre Jordan (Adebayo's defender) retreats as part of his drop-coverage duties. With Harris tangled up with Adebayo and Jordan dropping back, Butler is able to rise into an uncontested elbow jumper.
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It is hard to overstate how easy this is. Butler doesn't move out of first gear for this entire possession. Harris has no path to getting back in the play after the screen, and Jordan doesn't affect anything.
If that possession looks familiar, it's because it's a near carbon copy of this first-quarter stretch.
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The Butler-Adebayo pairing shook loose all night. Per Second Spectrum, a Miami Heat trip featuring a pick-and-roll with Miami's stars generated 1.73 points per possession (PPP) &mdash; nearly a guaranteed bucket. It's a far cry from their regular-season mark against the Sixers (0.43 PPP).&nbsp;
We can point out the obvious, that the Philadelphia 76ers desperately miss Joel Embiid.
His ability to play the gap &mdash; walking the tightrope between taking away easy shots for the ball-handler and not letting the roll man get behind him &mdash; is incredibly valuable. There's a level of space restriction with Embiid that can't be replicated anywhere else on the roster; heck, only a handful of bigs come close to replicating it in the NBA.
The Heat knew that, which led to them upping the ante in Game 2. They ran six more picks (77) than they did in Game 1 (71). More interesting to me was their setup; much like the clips above, the Heat emptied the strong-side corner more than they did in Game 1.
Emptying a corner (or a whole side, again, like the clip above) is designed to put extra stress on everyone, with more emphasis on the screen navigation &mdash; because falling behind the play means your big has to account for two players.
More emphasis on the help one pass away. If the big can't get a tag, you at least have to bother the ball-handler. What kind of nail help is this?
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Or this?
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Orrrr this?&nbsp;
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After setting 21 picks with an empty corner in Game 1, that number went up to 29 in Game 2. Not only did the volume increase, the efficiency did as well. Trips featuring an empty corner ball-screen produced well over 1.4 PPP.
The Sixers were already dealing with a personnel deficit with no Embiid. Their drop coverage was never going to hit the same with Jordan or Paul Reed (whew, boy, was he bad) anchoring things. It was&nbsp;awful&nbsp;when Miami emptied the corner against it in Game 2: seven possessions, seven shot attempts, six made shots, 14 points.
That's right &mdash; they quite literally averaged a bucket (2.00 PPP) when they saw drop coverage against an empty corner. This was the lone miss:
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Yes, that is James Harden playing drop coverage. No, I will not be taking anymore questions.
In light of their struggles against drop, I am utterly confused by them compounding those issues by rarely attempting to keep things on the sideline.&nbsp;
Of the 29 picks they faced with an empty corner, they only went to ICE coverage on four of them. Four! The purpose of ICE coverage is to force the ball-handler down the side, using that boundary as an extra defender.
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This is a much better process from Philadelphia. Harris attempts to force Butler down the right sideline. Adebayo does yeoman's work by flipping his angle &mdash; the natural counter to ICE coverage &mdash; but that simply turns into a late switch by Reed. The play ends with Victor Oladipo committing an unforced error, but that doesn't happen if the Sixers don't take away the easy gap at the beginning of the possession.
The Sixers switched more often than not when faced with these empty-corner actions. This may shock you, but all of their switches took place with Reed or someone smaller at the 5. The Heat scored efficiently (1.3 PPP on direct plays), but look at how hard the Heat had to work for these makes. From a process standpoint, switching is their best way to bring things into the mud.
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The simple (and hopeful) solution for the Sixers is to get Embiid back. Even 80% of him would bring a level of deterrence to their defense they've been lacking, and simplify roles for everyone else on the floor.&nbsp;
But with his status up in the air for Game 3, most tweaks are going to come from within. The easiest one: Downsizing more often and leaning into more switching. If there's a path to beating the Heat while undermanned, it's by forcing them to work in the half-court. It's a lot harder to that if you're feeding them pockets of space to attack.
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Nekias Duncan breaks down the Sixers' defensive woes against empty corner pick-and-rolls.

Emptying the clip: How the Heat torched the 76ers in pick-and-roll

MIAMI (AP) &mdash; Bam Adebayo scored 23 points, Jimmy Butler had 22 points and 12 assists, and the Miami Heat beat the Philadelphia 76ers 119-103 on Wednesday night for a 2-0 lead in the Eastern Conference semifinals.
Victor Oladipo scored 19 points on his 30th birthday and Tyler Herro added 18 for the Heat, the East&rsquo;s No. 1 seed. Oladipo had 10 of those points in the fourth quarter.
Tyrese Maxey scored 34 points for Philadelphia, which got 21 from Tobias Harris and 20 from James Harden.
A 10-0 run in the fourth turned an eight-point Miami lead into an 18-point edge, sealing the win and ensuring the Heat would hold home court before the series shifts north. Game 3 is Friday in Philadelphia.
And now, the Heat will hope history holds &mdash; and the 76ers will hope it doesn&rsquo;t.
Miami has taken a 2-0 lead in 18 previous series, including the first round this season against Atlanta, and won the matchup every time. The 76ers&rsquo; franchise has dropped the first two games of a matchup on 19 other occasions, never recovering to win the series.
The question going into Friday will revolve around whether Philadelphia&rsquo;s Joel Embiid could be ready for Game 3. The league&rsquo;s scoring champion and MVP finalist has, not surprisingly, been big-time missed by the 76ers.
&ldquo;We don&rsquo;t have a big man right now,&rdquo; Philadelphia coach Doc Rivers lamented.
Adebayo surely isn&rsquo;t complaining. He was 8 for 10 from the field and 8 for 8 from the line in Game 1; he followed that up with a 7-for-11 night from the floor on Wednesday.
It wasn&rsquo;t just the absence of Embiid, though, that hurt Philadelphia. The 76ers were awful again from 3-point range, shooting 8 for 30.
Danny Green was 1 for 10 from the field &mdash; the second time in his playoff career that he had that many attempts and shot that poorly in a postseason game. The other? A 1-for-12 effort for San Antonio in 2013, also in Miami, the night the Heat won their third and most recent NBA title.
The Heat aren&rsquo;t close to that yet. But they are two wins from the East finals.
TIP-INS
76ers: Harden got fouled on a 3-point try with 0.1 seconds left in the half, making all three free throws to get Philadelphia within 60-52 at the break. ... Maxey got a cut on his right knee in the fourth quarter, the game stopping temporarily while the 76ers tended to him. He stayed in the game. ... Georges Niang had another unusual stat line. He was 0 for 7 &mdash; all 3-pointers &mdash; in Game 1, then fouled out in 10 minutes of Game 2. It was the fourth-fewest minutes played all season by anyone who fouled out.
Heat: PJ Tucker turns 37 on Thursday. ... It was the 497th consecutive sellout announced by the Heat, tying Sacramento for the fifth-longest streak in NBA history. The record is held by Dallas, which has 864 consecutive sellouts and counting. ... Miami held a 44-34 rebounding edge.
PASSING PAT
With the win, Heat coach Erik Spoelstra&rsquo;s postseason record improved to 91-59 (.607). Among coaches with at least 100 playoff games, he moved into fourth on the NBA&rsquo;s win-percentage list behind only Steve Kerr (.732), Phil Jackson (.688) and Billy Cunningham (.629). The coach Spoelstra passed in winning percentage Wednesday night? That would be his boss, Heat President Pat Riley, who went 171-111 (.606).
KENTUCKY SOUTH
The Kentucky ties ran deep Wednesday night. Wildcats coach John Calipari was at Game 2 to see Herro formally receive the Sixth Man award. Other former Kentucky players on the Heat and 76ers: Adebayo, Maxey and Heat two-way player Mychal Mulder. And Riley played at Kentucky.
UP NEXT
Game 3 is Friday in Philadelphia.

Miami took a 2-0 lead over the Philadelphia 76ers with a second-straight home win in the Eastern Conference Semis.