Not too long ago, T.J. Warren was the NBA's hottest topic in the
Orlando Bubble. After putting up a career-high 53 points against
the Philadelphia 76ers as the season resumed play in 2020, Warren
seemed on the verge of becoming one of the league’s most underrated
three-level scorers.
However, nearly two years later, Warren has seemingly vanished
into the background after his outstanding performance inside the
Bubble. Two consecutive stress fractures in Warren’s left foot have
kept him sidelined for the last two years. Warren was supposed to
return and suit up for the Indiana Pacers earlier this season, but
then the same injury sidelined him until mid-March, when he was
finally cleared for full basketball activities. The Pacers had no
reason to play Warren over the final month of the regular season in
the midst of their tanking efforts.
As he approaches unrestricted free agency this offseason, here's
the big question: Was his Pacers stint lightning in a bottle? Can
he produce at that level again?
Since Warren’s foot became a problem, the Pacers began their
rebuilding process, shipping out Caris LeVert and Domantas Sabonis
in separate deals. Malcolm Brogdon and Myles Turner may be next on
the chopping block with trade rumors consistently swirling around
each of them.
Warren will be 29 years old in September. Does he even fit into
Indiana’s timeline anymore as they build around Tyrese Haliburton,
Chris Duarte, Isaiah Jackson and whoever is selected at No. 6
overall? It’s doubtful, so now a bona fide bucket-getter will
likely be available. If healthy, Warren becomes one of the most
underrated, bargain free-agent options for any playoff team in need
of a scoring boost.
In 71 games for the Pacers, Warren averaged 19.6 points, 4.3
rebounds and 1.2 steals while carrying an impressive 60.8% True
Shooting percentage. Warren’s expanded range to the three-point
line led to a noticeable efficiency spike, which changed his career
trajectory before the stress fractures occurred.
In the modern pace-and-space NBA, Warren knew his game had to
evolve from a strong dosage of mid-range shot creation. During the
2017-18 campaign, Warren’s shot profile featured only 8% of his
attempts from downtown. In what would be his final season with the
Phoenix Suns, Warren spent the 2018 offseason tirelessly working on
adding a three-pointer, and it led to a 20% jump in volume. After
getting dealt from Phoenix to Indiana, Warren continued to hone in
on his scoring, keeping defenses honest with his variety of
old-school mid-range moves to go along with a newly-added jumper
from distance.
There’s no doubt that Warren is one of the game’s best mid-range
scorers, consistently able to get to his spot while being
unbothered by heavy on-ball defense. According to Cleaning The
Glass, Warren ranks above the 90th percentile throughout his career
for wings attempting the most mid-range shots. How Warren’s game
could change following his injury is a looming concern; however, if
all checks out, teams should be lining up to sign him, offering
their mid-level exception or more. Whether it be a rebuilding
organization trying to push for the postseason or a contender
needing one more piece on top of an already-strong rotation, Warren
could fit into any role thanks to his easily translatable scoring
ability.
Teams will approach Warren with cautious optimism. If he checks
out medically, this could be the new version of Malik Monk signing
with the Los Angeles Lakers on a minimum deal. Maybe Warren could
get more annual salary — potentially a one-plus-one with a team
option — but there’s no long-term security until he proves that he
can stay healthy. At this point in Warren’s career, it’s impossible
to ignore the injury concerns. The “injury-prone” label should
rightfully be put on the former North Carolina State product, who
hasn’t played a full NBA season yet to date. (His career high is 67
games in 2019-20.)
Which teams could use Warren? There are many potential
destinations that make sense for Warren, as he's a realistic target
for any team willing to take a flier and he could fit with a lot of
squads. Could you imagine Warren alongside Giannis Antetokounmpo in
Milwaukee? Or next to Nikola Jokic in Denver? Or playing with Luka
Doncic in Dallas? What about Warren as the third scoring option in
Los Angeles next to LeBron James and Anthony Davis?
Warren’s career has taken such an interesting turn. From
surviving the tanking Suns years to a full-fledged breakout for
Indiana, Warren now faces an uncertain path for what’s next. It
seemed like Warren was headed toward a massive payday, but then
injuries threw his future up in the air.
Even still, plenty of teams should be more than willing to take
the risk on a score-first wing who won’t break the bank
financially. Don’t be surprised if we look back on Warren as one of
the NBA’s best value free-agent signings this time next year.
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