Kendrick Perkins Explains Why Luka Doncic Won’t Win MVP Despite His Impressive Numbers

Last summer, Kendrick Perkins went all in on Luka Doncic. “I’m betting on Luka Doncic to win the MVP next season,” he said on ESPN’s NBA Today in July 2025.

Doncic held up his end statistically, winning the scoring title at 33.5 points per game. But he wasn’t even an MVP finalist, finishing fourth as Shai Gilgeous-Alexander won his second straight award. This season, Perkins isn’t making the same bet.

"In order to win the MVP, you got to have the numbers," Perkins said on the Road Trippin' Show. "But you got to be one of these top teams. I just think that the Lakers, they are going to be in the middle of the pack. Luka is going to have the numbers, but they're not going to be a top three seed in the Western Conference."

Perkins' pick is a "safe bet" on Victor Wembanyama. "I'm going with Wemby," he said. The analysis is about the standings, not Doncic's talent. Doncic is in his ninth season and leads the league at 37.7 points per game, and Perkins expects the big numbers to keep coming. His issue is the standings.

That’s consistent with what Perkins said in August. After the schedule release, he told NBA Today that only four West teams were better than the Lakers “on paper”: the Nuggets, Spurs, Thunder and Timberwolves. He also made clear what that means in Los Angeles.

“The middle of the pack doesn’t mean nothing to the Laker fan base,” Perkins said. “It’s championship or bust.” He called this “the official era of Luka Doncic,” adding that Doncic is now “on the clock, because the Laker fan base, they’re spoiled.”

Last season’s MVP race backs up his logic. All three finalists played for top teams: Gilgeous-Alexander led the Thunder to 64 wins and the No. 1 seed, while Nikola Jokic and Wembanyama finished second and third. Doncic, despite leading the league in scoring, finished fourth, with the Lakers fourth in the West at 53-29.

Perkins has been tough on Doncic before. Last season, he left him out of his All-NBA First Team and put him in the second. Even though the Lakers were third in the West at that time.

The Lakers saw it differently. Coach JJ Redick said last March that Doncic was being overlooked, joking that it was “because he complains to the refs, I don’t know.” In April, he said he was “disappointed” Doncic wasn’t a finalist and blamed “media momentum.” This season, Redick has said he won’t talk about MVP until at least 50 games in.

The competition is also strong. Perkins' pick of Wembanyama reflects the Spurs' rise, and other names will be in the mix, including Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Nikola Jokic.

If the Lakers finish outside the top three, Perkins' argument will look right. If they climb into the top tier, his prediction will look like one more early-season take that changed.

For Doncic, the way to answer Perkins is simple: win enough games to move the Lakers up the standings, and let the numbers do the rest.